Yale Daily News

September 12, 1996

Fair's Economic Model Garners Hits on the Web

     by Karen E. Abrecht

Inside a normal-looking hard disk drive on economics professor Ray Fair's desk sits data which any Internet user around the world can use to forecast the future of America's economy and even the White House.

FAIRMODEL -- Fair's macroeconomic model of the U.S. economy -- took to the World Wide Web July 11, with the capability to show business people, government policy makers, teachers and students how such variables as government spending and interest rates will affect the economy.

The site also offers an analysis of the Clinton and Dole economic plans and Fair's Presidential Vote Equation for predicting the outcome of Presidential elections.

Fair, who pioneered the use of economic models on personal computers in 1983, noted that when the model was first created in the 1970s it required a mainframe computer to run. Even now, "there aren't many examples of serious number crunching being done by a [Web] server," he said.

Anyone with the World Wide Web browser Netscape Navigator 2.0 or higher can access the site.

"It is aimed at a broad range of people, from students studying at the introductory level to government policy makers," Fair said. "My guess is that the largest group of users will be students," he added.

Because all of the number-crunching is done by the Web server, users can experiment with different variables, solve the model, and save their work for later use without ever having to download anything into their personal computer.

The majority of those who have visited the site since its creation and filled in the optional user registration form were teachers who intended to use the model with their classes this fall, Fair said. He expects to see increasing numbers of students using the site as the academic year gets underway, he added.

Before it was available on the Web, Fair said the model was "kind of a pain" for students to use, and he did not use it in his course last year.

Ethics, Politics and Economics major Cary Joshi, '97, although not acquainted with the model, commented, "I think [education] is what the Internet will mainly be used for."

Andrew Rosen '98, who took Fair's introductory macroeconomics course two years ago, remembers the model being mentioned in the class and found its application in predicting the outcome of presidential elections "completely fascinating."

Fair said the Web site has been generally well-received by other economists, some of whom have created links from their own Web pages to the FAIRMODEL site.

"I think a lot of professors are just starting to place things on the Internet and I think it will change how classes are taught," Associate Professor of Economics Steven Berry said.

Economics professor John Geanakoplos said sites like FAIRMODEL represent the up-and-coming trend of using the Internet for educational purposes.

"It's going to make the teaching of economics more efficient and much less costly," he said. "Ultimately there's no reason why, using this technology, a professor at one university couldn't teach students at other universities," raising the level of competition among professors, Geanakoplos added.

Although the Web site is designed with a range of users in mind, Fair urged users to read the introduction and do the suggested readings and tutorials before diving in.

Information at the site also warns, "If you make wild changes to the exogenous variables or coefficients, the model may not solve ... You will need to be less wild and try again." Fair explained that the model is not likely to be reliable when the variables are pushed far beyond their historical ranges. Unemployment, for example, should not be set at zero.

The site can be reached at http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu