Irrational Exuberance

Hardcover, Princeton University Press, 2000

Paperback, Broadway Books, 2001 Click to enlarge

By Robert J. Shiller
Princeton University Press, 2000

     Winner of the COMMONFUND PRIZE, 2000

This book is a broad study, drawing on a wide range of published research and historical evidence, of the enormous stock market boom that started around 1982 and picked up incredible speed after 1995. Although it takes as its specific starting point this ongoing boom, it places it in the context of stock market booms generally, and it also makes concrete suggestions regarding policy changes that should be initiated in response to this and other such booms. The book argues that the boom represents a speculative bubble, not grounded in sensible economic fundamentals. Part one of the book considers structural factors behind the boom. A list of twelve precipitating factors that appear to be its ultimate causes is given. Amplification mechanisms, naturally-occurring Ponzi processes, that enlarge the effects of these precipitating factors, are described. Part Two discusses cultural factors, the effects of the news media, and of "new era" economic thinking. Part Three discusses psychological factors, psychological anchors for the market and herd behavior. Part Four discusses attempts to rationalize exuberance: efficient markets theory and theories that investors are learning. Part Five presents policy options and actions that should be taken. [296 pages]

Other editions:

Scribe Publications paperback 2000 (Australia and New Zealand)
Princeton University Press paperback 2001 (UK only)
Audible.com, audio edition 2001

Translations:

Arabic: Obeikan Publishers, Saudi Arabia
Chinese (simplified characters): Chinese People's University Press, China/Liang Jing Publishing Studio
Chinese (complex characters): China Times Publishers, Taiwan
French: Valor editions, France
German: Campus Verlag, Germany
Greek: Livanis Publications, Greece
Hungarian: Alinea, Hungary
Italian: Il Mulino, Italy
Korean: Maeil Business Newspapers, Korea
Japanese: Diamond, Japan
Macedonian: Securities and Exchange Commission, Macedonia
Portuguese: Makron, Brazil
Spanish: Turner Publications, Spain/Oceana Mexico
Turkish: Rota Publishers, Turkey