A Short-Run Forecasting Model of the United States Economy

Ray C. Fair
Heath Lexington Books, 1971

Complete book may be downloaded at: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/rayfair/pdf/1971E.HTM

Preface

The model that is described in this book was developed during 1968 and 1969. The money GNP sector was developed in early 1968, and the other sectors were developed during 1969. At the time of this writing, the model in one form or another has been used as an actual forecasting tool for about two years. Data through the fourth quarter of 1969 have been used for the results presented in this book.

The computations were performed on an IBM 360-91 computer at Princeton University. All of the estimation techniques that were used in this study were programmed into the TSP regression package program. The TSP program was originally designed by Robert E. Hall and has since been expanded by J. Philip Cooper, Dwight M. Jaffee, and the present author, among others.

I am indebted to a number of people for their help and advice throughout the course of this work. These include Stanley W. Black, William H. Branson, Stephen M. Goldfeld, Dwight M. Jaffee, and Richard E. Quandt. I would particularly like to thank Stephen Goldfeld and Dwight Jaffee, who read the entire manuscript in rough draft form and made many helpful suggestions. I, of course, assume responsibility for all errors.

Part of this study was sponsored by grants from the National Science Foundation.

Ray C. Fair
Princeton, New Jersey
May 1970