APPENDIX I
STAFF PUBLICATIONS AND ADDRESSES
JULY I, 1950JUNE 30, 1951
| STEPHEN G. ALLEN |
"Minimax Solutions for Two-Valued
Decision Problems when the Size of Sample is Fixed," presented June 16, 1951, before
the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. |
T.W. ANDERSON |
"The Asymptotic Distribution of
Certain Characteristic Roots and Vectors," presented August 3, 1950, at the Second
Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, University of California,
Berkeley, CA. |
"Multivariate Analysis," A
Half Century of Progress address, presented December 27, 1950, before the American
Statistical Association, Econometric Society, and Institute of Mathematical Statistics,
Chicago, IL. |
Discussion of Problems of Incorrect
and Incomplete Specification, presented December 29, 1950, before the Econometric Society
and Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Chicago, Illinois. |
"Asymptotic Theory of Certain
Goodness of Fit' Criteria Based on Stochastic Processes" (with D.A. Darling),
presented December 29, 1950, before the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Chicago, IL.
(Abstract in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 22, March, 1951, p. 143.) |
"The Asymptotic Properties of
Estimates of the Parameters of a Single Equation in a Complete System of Stochastic
Equations" (with Herman Rubin), Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 21,
December, 1950, pp. 570582. (Included in Cowles Commission Papers, New Series, No.
36.) |
"Errors and Shocks in Economic
Relationships" (with Leonid Hurwicz), Proceedings of the International Statistical
Conferences, held in Washington, DC, September 618, 1947, Vol. 5, 1950. (Reprinted
in Supplement to Econometrica, Vol. 17, July, 1949, pp. 2325.) |
"Theory of Multivariate
Statistical Analysis" and "Time Series Analysis," Course Lectures, Winter,
195051, Columbia University. |
"Correlation Theory and
Elementary Multivariate Analysis" and "Seminar in Advanced Mathematical
Statistics," Course Lectures, Spring, 1951, Columbia University. |
"Classification by Multivariate
Analysis," Psychometrika, Vol. 16, March, 1951, pp. 3150. |
"Probability Models for Analyzing
Time Changes in Attitudes" (mimeographed), Columbia University and The RAND
Corporation Project. |
For contribution to Statistical
Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, Cowles
Commission Monograph 10, see Appendix IV. |
KENNETH J. ARROW |
Review of "A Correction to `Note
on a Problem of Ragnar Frisch' " by C. Radhakrishna Rao, Mathematical Reviews,
Vol. II, April, 1950, p. 259 (not included in previous report). |
"An Extension of the Basic
Theorems of Classical Welfare Economics," presented August 4, 1950, at a joint
session of the Econometric Society and the Second Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical
Statistics and Probability, Berkeley, California. (Abstract in Econometrica, Vol.
19, January, 1951, p. 53.) |
"A Difficulty in the Concept of
Social Welfare," Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 58, August, 1950, pp.
328346. |
"Optimal Inventory Policy"
[with T. Harris and J. Marschak (hectographed)], George Washington University Logistics
Papers, Issue No. 4, Appendix I to Quarterly Progress Report No. 5, 16 November,
195015 February, 1951 (to be published in Econometrica). |
"Alternative Approaches to the
Theory of Choice in Risk-Taking Situations," presented December 21, 1950, at a Cowles
Commission Seminar, and December 27, before the American Economic Association, American
Statistical Association, Econometric Society, and Institute of Mathematical Statistics,
Chicago, IL (to be published in Econometrica). |
Review of Income, Savings, and the
Theory of Consumer Behavior by James S. Duesenberry, American Economic Review,
Vol. 40, December, 1950, pp. 906911. |
Review of "The Bargaining
Problem" by John F. Nash, Jr., Mathematical Reviews, Vol. 12, January, 1951,
p. 40. |
"Admissible Points of Convex
Sets" (with D. Blackwell), presented February 13, 1951, at a joint Stanford
University and University of California Statistics Seminar, Berkeley, California. |
Course Lectures on Statistical
Analysis, Elementary Statistical Analysis, Time Series Analysis, Theory of Games, and
Special Topics in Dynamic Economics, 195051, Stanford University. |
Social Choice and Individual Values,
Cowles Commission Monograph 12 (see Appendix IV). |
For contribution to Activity
Analysis of Production and Allocation, Cowles
Commission Monograph 13, see Appendix IV. |
CARL CHRIST |
Discussion of "Productivity in
the Airframe Industry," presented December 27, 1950, before the Econometric Society,
Chicago, Illinois. |
Course Lectures on Elementary
Statistics, Economic Statistics, Elements of Economics, and Econometrics, 195051,
Johns Hopkins University. |
HAROLD T. DAVIS |
Review of "Formulas for Complex
Cartesian Interpolation of Higher Degree" by Herbert E. Salzer, Mathematical
Tables and Other Aids to Computation, Vol. 4, July, 1950, pp. 147148. |
"Pareto: His Significance to
Modern Economics," presented December 27, 1950, before the American Economic
Association and the Econometric Society, Chicago, Illinois. |
"Some Implications of the Curve
of Income Distribution," presented January 11, 1951, at a Cowles Commission Seminar. |
Quantitative Aspects of the Action
of Carcinogenic Substances (mimeographed), 195I, vii + 147 pp. |
The Theory of Nonlinear Operators
(mimeographed), 120 pp. |
GERARD DEBREU |
"The Coefficient of Resource
Utilization," presented August 31, 1950, at the Harvard meeting of the Econometric
Society, Cambridge, Massachusetts (to be published in Econometrica). |
Discussion of "A Mathematical
Model Illustrating Some Problems in the Theory of Investment Decisions" by David
Durand, presented December 27, 1950, before the Econometric Society, Chicago, Illinois. |
"Effect of Technological Change
on Production Potential," presented April; 7, 1951, at the Conference on Quantitative
Description of Technological Change, Princeton University. |
"The Efficiency of an Economic
System," presented May 3, 1951, at a Cowles Commission Seminar. |
"Socialist Economics,"
presented May 8, 1951, before the Political Economy Club, University of Chicago. |
"Efficiency Prices as Guides for
Decentralized Decisions," presented June 15, 1951, at the Symposium on Linear
Inequalities and Programming, Washington, DC. |
NATHAN J. DIVINSKY |
Course Lectures on Elementary
Mathematics, Statistics, Theory of Equations, Solid Analytic Geometry, and Modern Algebra,
Ripon College, Wisconsin. |
KIRK FOX |
Course Lectures on Introductory and
Intermediate Statistics, Spring, 1951, Northwestern University School of Commerce. |
JOHN GURLAND |
"Testing Linear Hypotheses,"
Course Lectures, Winter, 1951, University of Chicago. |
"Theory of Statistical
Estimation," Course Lectures, Spring, 1951, University of Chicago. |
"On Asymptotically Normal
Efficient Estimators: I" (with E.W. Barankin), University of California Publications
in Statistics, Vol. I, No. 6, Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press,
1951, pp.89130. |
TRYGVE HAAVELMO |
Lectures on Econometric Methods at the
Universities of Lund and Stockholm, Sweden, October 30November 3, 1950. |
"Theories on Productive
Efforts" (mimeographed lecture notes, in Norwegian), Oslo, 1950. |
"The Notion of Price
Homogeneity," in a special volume in honor of Professor Jorgen Pedersen, Aarhus:
Aarhus University Printing Office, 1951. |
"Statistical Theory"
(mimeographed lecture notes, in Norwegian), Oslo, 1951. |
Course Lectures in Econometric
Methods, Statistics, and Economic Theory, 195051, University of Oslo. |
For contribution to Statistical
Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, Cowles
Commission Monograph 10, see Appendix IV. |
CLIFFORD HILDRETH |
"Possibilities' and
Statistical Analysis," presented July 13, 1950, at the Economic Efficiency Seminar,
Social Science Research Council Project in Agricultural Economics, University of Chicago. |
"A Model of Farm
Production," presented August 9, 1950, at the above seminar. |
Discussion of "Economic Theory,
Statistics, and Economic Policy," presented December 27, 1950, before the American
Economic Association, American Statistical Association, and Econometric Society, Chicago,
Illinois. |
"Introduction to
Econometrics," Course Lectures, Winter, 1951, University of Chicago. |
"Derivation of Social Welfare
Functions from Individual Utility Functions," presented May 10, 1951, at a Cowles
Commission Seminar. |
For contribution to Activity
Analysis of Production and Allocation, Cowles
Commission Monograph 13, see Appendix IV. |
WILLIAM C. HOOD |
Abstract of discussion of
"Analysis of the Multi-Part Economy," Econometrica, Vol. 18, July, 1950,
pp. 287288. |
"The Treatment of Certain
Economic Research Problems Mathematically and Statistically," presented January 31
and February 7, 1951, at the Seminar in Applied Mathematics and Physics, Department of
Applied Mathematics, University of Toronto. |
Course Lectures in Mathematical
Economics, 195051, University of Toronto. |
Course Lectures in Statistical
Analysis, 195051, University of Toronto. Discussion at Seminar on Theory of Games,
Department of Mathematics, University of Toronto. |
LEONID HURWICZ |
"A Theory of Stabilizing Business
Fluctuations" (abstract), Econometrica, Vol. 18, July, 1950, pp. 278279. |
"Theory of Economic
Organization," presented August 5, 1950, before the Econometric Society, Berkeley,
California. (Abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 19, January, 1951, p. 54.) |
"Some Specification Problems and
Applications to Econometric Models," presented December 29, 1950, before the
Econometric Society and Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Chicago, Illinois. |
"Errors and Shocks in Economic
Relationships" (with T.W. Anderson), Proceedings of the International Statistical
Conferences, held in Washington, DC, September 618, 1947, Vol. 5, 1950. (Reprinted
in Supplement to Econometrica, Vol. 17, July, 1949, pp. 2325.) |
"Mathematics of Welfare
Economics: An Introduction," presented March 1, 1951, at a Cowles Commission Seminar. |
"Optimization Rules in a
Decentralized Economy," presented March 29, 1951, at a Cowles Commission Seminar. |
"Decentralized
Optimization," presented April 9, 1951, at a joint seminar on Econometrics and Theory
of Games, Princeton University. |
"Statistical Treatment of Time
Series," presented April 17, 1951, before the University of Illinois Chapter of the
American Statistical Association. |
"Generalized Minimax-Bayes
Solutions," presented May 22, 1951, at the Mathematical Statistics Seminar,
University of Illinois. |
"Discussion of paper by Wassily
Leontief on Structural Change, presented April 7, 1951, at the Conference on Quantitative
Description of Technological Change, Princeton, University. |
"Gradient Methods in Lagrangian
Problems and their Game-Theoretic Interpretation," presented June 15, 1951, at the
Symposium on Linear Inequalities and Programming, Washington, DC. |
"Uncertainty in Organization
Theory," presented June 19, 1951, at the Carnegie Institute of Technology. |
For contributions to Statistical
Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, Cowles
Commission Monograph 10, see Appendix IV. |
LAWRENCE R. KLEIN |
"Stock and Flow Analysis in
Economics" and "Further Comment," Econometrica, Vol. 18, July, 1950,
pp. 236241, 246. |
"The Integration of Cross-Section
and Time-Series Data" (abstract), Econometrica, Vol. 18, July, 1950, pp.
280281. |
"The Dynamics of Price
Flexibility: A Comment," American Economic Review, Vol. 40, September, 1950,
pp. 605609. |
"Sample Surveys of Households: A
New Tool in Econometrics," presented December 29, 1950, before the American Economic
Association, Econometric Society, and Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Chicago, IL. |
"Estimating Patterns of Consumer
Behavior from Sample Surveys," presented March 14, 1951, before the Detroit Chapter
of the American Statistical Association. |
Economic Fluctuations in the United
States, 19211941, Cowles
Commission Monograph 11 (see Appendix IV). |
TJALLING C. KOOPMANS |
"Efficiency Aspects of Dispersal
of Population and Industry," presented July 7, 1950, at the Logistics Conference of
The RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California. |
"Recent Developments in the
Theory of Production," presented September 6, 1950, before the Econometric Society,
Varese, Italy. |
"Maximization and Substitution in
Linear Models of Production," presented September 28, 1950, at a Conference on
InputOutput Analysis, Driebergen, The Netherlands. |
"Convex Cones and the Economic
Theory of Production," presented November 25, 1950, before the Mathematical Society,
Amsterdam, The Netherlands. |
Lectures, under various titles, on the
Theory of Production and Allocation, presented October 5, 1950, at the Seminar on
Production Theory, University Economic Institute, Oslo; October 14, at the Economics
Seminar, University of Uppsala, Sweden; October 31November 23, for the Department of
Economics, University of Amsterdam; November 25, before the Mathematical Society,
Amsterdam; December 7, at a Seminar of the Department of Applied Economics, Cambridge
University; December 15, at the Institute of Applied Economics, Paris. |
Lectures on the Theory of
Transportation, presented October 16, 1950, at the Economics Seminar, University of
Stockholm; October 19, at the Economics Seminar, University of Copenhagen; November 20, at
the Mathematical Seminar, Technological Institute, Delft, The Netherlands; November 29, at
the Economics Seminar, London School of Economics; December 19, at the Economics Seminar,
Ecole des Mines, Paris. |
Lectures dealing with Problems of
Specification, Identification, and Estimation in Statistical Model Construction in
Econometrics, presented October 1950, before the Statistical Institute, University of
Uppsala; October 18, at the Institute of Statistics, University of Stockholm; October 20,
at the Statistical Seminar, University of Copenhagen; October 27November 21, at the
Netherlands Economic University, Rotterdam; |
November for the Netherlands
Statistical Association and the Mathematical Center, Amsterdam; November 28, at the
Seminar on Econometrics, London School of Economics; December 22, at the Institut Henri
Poincare, Paris. |
Lectures on the Dynamic Theory of
Consumers' Choice, presented December 4, 1950, at the Economics Seminar, Oxford
University; December 21, at the Economics Seminar, Ecole des Ponts et Chaussees, Paris. |
"Optimum Utilization of the
Transportation System," Proceedings of the International Statistical Conferences,
held in Washington, DC, September 618, 1947, Vol. 5, 1950. (Reprinted in Supplement
to Econometrica, Vol. 17, July, 1949, pp. 136146; to be reprinted as Cowles Commission Paper, New Series, No. 34.) |
"Generalizations of Leontief's
InputOutput Model," presented March 15, 1951, at a Cowles Commission Seminar. |
"Allocation of Resources in
Production," Course Lectures, Winter, 1951, University of Chicago. |
"Statistical Problems of Model
Construction," Course Lectures, Spring, 1951, University of Chicago. |
Discussion of "Efficiency Prices
as Guides for Decentralized Decisions" by Gerard Debreu, presented June 15, 1951, at
the Symposium on Linear Inequalities and Programming, Washington, DC. |
For contributions to Statistical
Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, Cowles
Commission Monograph 10 (Tjalling C. Koopmans, ed.), see Appendix IV. |
For contributions to Activity
Analysis of Production and Allocation, Cowles
Commission Monograph 13 (Tjalling C. Koopmans, ed.), see Appendix IV. |
HARRY MARKOWITZ |
"Theories of Uncertainty and
Financial Behavior," presented December 27, 1950, before the Econometric Society,
Chicago, Illinois. |
JACOB MARSCHAK |
"Review of "Revisione della
teoria matematica dell'interesse" by Luigi Amoroso, Mathematical Reviews, Vol.
11, JulyAugust, 1950, p. 531. |
"Why `Should' Statisticians and
Businessmen Maximize Moral Expectation?" presented August 4, 1950, at a joint session
of the Econometric Society and the Second Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics
and Probability, Berkeley, California. (Abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 19, January,
1951, pp. 5253.) |
"Demand for Cash and for
Inventories under Certainty," presented August 7, 1950, before the Department of
Economics, Stanford University. |
"The Rationale of the Demand for
Money and of Money Illusion,' " Metroeconomica, Vol. 2, August, 1950, pp.
71100. (Abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 18, July, 1950, pp. 272274.) |
"Rational Inventories: A Study in
Uncertainty," presented November 20, 1950, before the Political Economy Club,
University of Chicago. |
"Recent Discussions on Utility
and Probability, and the Late Frank Ramsey," presented November 30, 1950, at a Cowles
Commission Seminar. |
"Optimal Inventory Policy"
[with Kenneth J. Arrow and T. Harris (hectographed)], George Washington University
Logistics Papers, Issue No. 4, Appendix I to Quarterly Progress Report No. 5, 16 November,
195015 February, 1951 (to be published in Econometrica). |
"Probability in the Social
Sciences," three lectures presented December 6, 7, 8, 1950, before the Department of
Sociology, Columbia University. |
Discussion of "Progress in the
Analysis of Demand," presented December 1950, before the American Economic
Association, American Statistical Association, and Econometric Society, Chicago, Illinois. |
Course Lectures on Income, Employment,
and the Price Level, Autumn, 1950, University of Chicago. |
"Models for Inventory Policy,
Static and Dynamic," presented January 3, 1951, at the Office of Naval Research
Conference on Logistics, George Washington University, Washington, DC. |
Seminar on Economics of Uncertainty,
Winter, 1951, University of Chicago. |
For contribution to Statistical
Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, Cowles
Commission Monograph 10, see Appendix IV. |
Economic Aspects of Atomic Power
(with Sam H. Schurr et al.), Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1950, 289 pp. (For
Table of Contents see Appendix IV.) |
Income, Employment, and the Price
Level, Notes on lectures given at the University of Chicago, Autumn, 1948 and 1949,
New York: Augustus M. Kelley, 1951, 95 pp. |
FRANCO MODIGLIANI |
Discussion of Analysis of Choices
Involving Risk, presented December 1950, before the American Economic Association,
American Statistical Association, Econometric Society, and Institute of Mathematical
Statistics, Chicago, Illinois. |
"Use of Sample Surveys of
Business Expectations," presented December 29, 1950, before the American Economic
Association, Econometric Society, and Institute of Mathematical Statistics, Chicago,
Illinois. |
"An Introduction to the Method of
Mathematical Economics," Course Lectures, Autumn, 1950, University of Illinois. |
HERBERT A. SIMON |
Discussion of Theory of Automata,
presented September 5, 1950, at the Harvard meeting of the Econometric Society, Cambridge,
Massachusetts. (Abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 19, January, 1951, p. 72.) |
"Modern Organizational
Theories," Advanced Management, Vol. 15, October, 1950, pp. 24. |
"The Use of Theoretical Models in
Political Science," presented December 1950, before the American Political Science
Association, Washington DC. |
"The Analysis of Promotional
Opportunities," Personnel, Vol. 27, January, 1951, pp. 28253. |
"The Ingredients of Organization
Theory," presented March 1, 1951, before the Sloan Fellows, Massachusetts Institute
of Technology. |
"Alternatives to Economic
Man," presented March 2, 1951, at the Economics Seminar, Massachusetts Institute of
Technology. |
"Formal Aspects of Organization
as Related to Communication," presented April 10, 1951, at the Seminar on
Communication Theory, Columbia University. |
Chapters XIII and XIV in Economic
Aspects of Atomic Power. (See Appendix IV.) |
For contribution to Activity
Analysis of Production and Allocation, Cowles
Commission Monograph 13, see Appendix IV. |
MORTON SLATER |
"Mathematical Methods in the
Study of Efficiency in Production Models," presented September 4, 1950, at the
Harvard meeting of the Econometric Society, Cambridge, Massachusetts. (Abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 19, January, 1951, pp. 6869.) |
"Some Generalizations of a Real
Variable Lemma due to Cesari," presented January 17. 1951, at the Analysis Seminar,
Department of Mathematics, University of Chicago. |
"A Note on Motzkin's
Transposition Theorem," Econometrica, Vol. 19, April, 1951, pp. 185187. |
"Optimization under Constraints:
A Central Economic Problem and the Mathematical Tools for Its Solution," presented
April 12, 1951, at a Cowles Commission Seminar. |
ERLING SVERDRUP |
"Prediction Problems and the
Theory of Statistical Decision Functions," presented September 1, 1950, at the
Harvard meeting of the Econometric Society, Cambridge, Massachusetts. (Abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 19, January, 1951, p. 61.) |
"Probability Theory and
Mathematical Statistics" and "Life Insurance Mathematics," Course Lectures,
January 15June 15, 1951, University of Oslo, Norway. |
"Recent Ideas in Mathematical
Statistics," presented in April, 1951, before the Norwegian Society of Actuaries. |
APPENDIX II
LIST OF COURSES AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO IN ECONOMETRICS,
MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS, ECONOMIC THEORY, AND STATISTICS
USE OF ELEMENTARY MATHEMATICS IN ECONOMICS. Discussion of students' solutions of
problems pertaining to the dimensionality of economic magnitudes; to the presentation of
economic theories as systems of quantitative relations; to the use of the maximization
principle; to the aggregation over individuals and over commodities; to the formulation of
dynamic theories; to the use of random variables in economics; and to the comparison of
policy results.
PROBLEMS IN MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS. Elements of set theory and of advanced
calculus and algebra, applied to fundamental economic problems. The material is arranged
in the order of increasing mathematical difficulty.
NATIONAL INCOME AND RELATED AGGREGATES. Survey of the sources and methods
involved in estimating the economic structure. National income, capital formation, balance
of payments, and the components of the input-output analysis. Formulation of national
economic programs. Aggregates are related to the data and methods of both business and
government accounting. Attention is given to students' practical work.
PRICE THEORY. A systematic study of the pricing of final products and factors of
production under essentially stationary conditions. Covers both perfect competition and
such imperfectly competitive conditions as monopolistic competition, oligopoly, and
monopoly.
WELFARE ECONOMICS. Description of conditions defining production and utility
"possibilities." Implications of these conditions for appraising economic
policies affecting resource allocation, income distribution, and the level of employment.
Special applications are made in the appraisal of imperfect competition, various
government fiscal policies, and alternative economic systems.
ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES IN PRODUCTION. Criteria for optimal resource allocation.
Prices are introduced as marginal rates of substitution under efficient allocation of
resources. The use of prices as guides to allocative decisions. Applications to a variety
of production and pricing problems, including those of the transportation industry, and
problems of industrial location.
CHOICE AND POSSIBILITIES IN ECONOMIC ORGANIZATION (with particular application
to agriculture). Economic development. Economic fluctuations.
THE THEORY OF INCOME, EMPLOYMENT, AND PRICE LEVEL. Government policies and other
factors determining the employment of resources, the national income and its use, and the
levels of prices, wage rates, and interest rates. These problems are linked with the
behavior of individual firms and households.
ECONOMICS OF UNCERTAINTY. Probabilistic vs. deterministic social science,
normative and descriptive. Optimal strategies under complete and incomplete information.
Applications to private and public policy; choice of assets (liquidity, inventories,
diversification); versatility.
MONETARY ASPECTS OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE. Foreign payments and receipts.
Classical and modern theories of adjustment of the balance of payments. Theories of
exchange rates. Capital movements in the balance of payments. Postwar monetary plans.
ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS. Price theory and international
trade; the gains from international specialization. International trade and the
distribution of income. Historical and theoretical discussion of the theory of tariffs.
Commercial policies of particular countries, including the United States, the United
Kingdom, and France. Commodity agreements and cartels. The growth of state trading. The
new mercantilism.
SEMINAR ON MODERN DEVELOPMENTS IN ECONOMIC THEORY. Discussion of selected topics
from recent literature.
SEMINAR IN MONETARY DYNAMICS. The dynamic adjustment of the economy as a whole,
with special emphasis on the role of the monetary and banking system. Student discussion
of theoretical issues and empirical studies in this general field.
SCOPE AND METHOD OF THE SOCIAL SCIENCES. The first of this sequence of three
courses is an introduction to statistical methods as used in the social sciences.
STATISTICAL INFERENCE (sequence of three courses). The first two courses survey
the principles of statistical inference. Among the subjects treated are: elements of
probability; concepts of population, sample, and sampling distribution; choice of
estimates in the light of their sampling properties; testing hypotheses with reference to
specific alternatives; principles of sampling and sample design; analysis of proportions,
means, and standard deviations; simple, partial, and multiple regression and correlation.
In the third course of the sequence students may carry out a statistical investigation;
published statistical studies may be analyzed in detail; or some special field of
application may be studied.
INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMETRICS. Some properties of vectors, matrices, systems of
linear equations. Analysis of simple economic models.
STATISTICAL PROBLEMS OF MODEL CONSTRUCTION. Discussion of problems arising when
inference processes are directed to a postulated structure underlying the probability
distribution of observed variables. Problems of identification of structural
characteristics in a given model, of estimation of identifiable parameters, of estimation
bias arising from incorrectly specified models, and of testing the specifications that
define a model. Examples are drawn from econometrics, factor analysis, latent attribute
analysis, and from the study of errors of observation.
TIME SERIES. Stochastic difference equations, trends, moving averages, tests for
randomness, correlograms, periodograms.
SAMPLE SURVEYS. Theory of sampling from finite populations and especially its
application to human populations.
MATHEMATICAL STATISTICS. An introduction, including discussions of point
estimation, set estimation, and the testing of hypotheses.
MARKOV PROCESSES. Three types of Markov process: discrete in space and time;
discrete in space and continuous in time; continuous in both space and time. Use of
certain of these processes as models in, e.g., genetics, evolution, diffusion, and
communication.
ANALYSIS OF VARIANCE AND REGRESSION. Algebra and geometry of vector spaces
systematically applied to theory and application of subjects known variously as linear
hypotheses, regression, analysis of variance, and least squares.
ESTIMATION AND TESTS OF HYPOTHESES. General methods, especially the theories of
Neyman, Pearson, and Fisher.
SEQUENTIAL ANALYSIS. The sequential probability ratio test and its operating
characteristics and average sample number functions; application to standard
distributions; double dichotomies; sequential estimation; special problems.
STATISTICAL THEORY OF DECISION-MAKING. Critical review of modern
statistical viewpoints, emphasizing general ideas as opposed to techniques.
Interpretations of probability; the probabilistic utility theory; critique of Bayes'
theorem; methods proposed for avoiding Bayes' theorem, especially Wald's theory of minimum
risk and the NeymanPearson theory; randomization; sufficient statistics and
likelihood ratios; de Finetti's theory of personal probability.
THEORY OF MINIMUM RISK. Where practical, illustrations are drawn from standard
statistical tests and estimates, but the treatment is for the most part on an abstract
level. Existence theorems; general techniques of solution; simple dichotomies; asymptotic
point estimation; symmetrical problems; sequential decisions.
MULTIVARIATE ANALYSIS. The multivariate normal distribution. Related
distributions such as the Wishart distribution and its noncentral analogue, and the
distribution of the roots of determinantal equations. Hotelling's cannonical correlations.
Associated tests and estimation functions and the problem of classification.
THE DESIGN OF EXPERIMENTS. Design of experiments with special reference to the
analysis of variance. Interaction and its exploitation in design, and the analysis of
covariance. Numerical methods, analysis in the case of missing observations, and the
effects of departure from the underlying assumptions of the analysis of variance are
touched upon.
STATISTICS SEMINAR. Reports by staff members, students, and visitors.
APPENDIX III
COWLES COMMISSION PAPERS, NEW SERIES, 19431951
See complete LIST OF COWLES COMMISSION
PAPERS
SPECIAL PAPERS
No. 1. JOHN R.
MENKE, "Nuclear Fission as a Source of Power," Econometrica, Vol. 15,
October, 1947, pp. 314333.
No. 2. JACOB MARSCHAK,
SAM H. SCHURR, and PHILIP SPORN, "The Economic Aspects of Atomic Power,"
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, Vol. 2, Nos. 5 and 6, September, 1946, pp. 14; Proceedings
Supplement of American Economic Review, Vol. 37, No. 2, May, 1947, pp. 98117.
APPENDIX IV
COWLES COMMISSION MONOGRAPHS, 19341951
See Complete LIST OF
MONOGRAPHS (available for download)
SPECIAL PUBLICATION
Economic Aspects of Atomic Power, An Exploratory Study under the direction of
SAM H. SCHURR AND JACOB MARSCHAK. Princeton: Princeton University Press. 1950. 289 pages.
An analysis of the potential applicability of atomic power in selected industries and its
economic effects in both industrialized and underdeveloped areas. Contents:
Preface.
PART ONE. ECONOMIC COMPARISONS OF ATOMIC AND CONVENTIONAL POWER: I. Economic
Characteristics of Atomic Power; II. The Cost of Electricity from Conventional Energy
Sources.
PART TWO. ATOMIC POWER IN SELECTED INDUSTRIES: III. The Industry Analyses: A Summary View;
IV. Aluminum; V. Chlorine and Caustic Soda; VI. Phosphate Fertilizers; VII. Cement; VIII.
Brick; IX. Flat Glass; X. Iron and Steel; XI. Railroad Transportation; XII. Residential
Heating.
PART THREE. ATOMIC POWER AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: XIII. The Effects of Atomic Power on
National or Regional Economies; XIV. Atomic Power and the Industrialization of Backward
Areas. (Tables, Maps, Graphs, References, Index.)
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