REPORT
FOR PERIOD 1947 |
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The Cowles Commission for Research in Economics is a not-for-profit corporation, founded in 1932 for the purpose of conducting and encouraging investigations into economic problems. A function of the Commission is to issue from time to time papers and monographs of an econometric or economic-statistical nature without, however, assuming responsibility for the theories or opinions expressed therein. The Commission is affiliated with the Econometric Society, an international society for the advancement of economic theory in its relation to statistics and mathematics. I. ECONOMETRIC RESEARCH During the last four years or so the Cowles Commission has considered as its main object the measuring of economic relations. The annual reports for 1944 and 1945, and the five-year report for 1942–1946 discuss in some detail the need for this type of research, and its ultimate promise of a clearer, more realistic, and more useful economics. In what follows, the main contents of the work done in 1947 will be stated briefly, and details will be indicated by the titles of the subjects studied and discussed by the staff. Most of these items have been circulated, as summaries or full draft papers, in advance of staff discussion, and have been also communicated to a few experts for comments and criticisms. The main headings of econometric research have been again (1) Construction of Economic Models, (2) Revision of Economic Fundamentals, (3) Revision of Statistical Tools. 1. Construction of Economic Models The second draft of Klein's "Economic Fluctuations, U.S. 1921–1941" was completed and it is planned to publish it as a Cowles Commission Monograph. In this book, discussion of the general principles of model building is followed by an attempt to use a theory of rational behavior of firms to derive, in first approximation, some of the relevant economic relationships. For example, the possible determinants of the aggregate capital outlay, and of the changes in aggregate inventories and other assets are specified on the basis of plausible behavior of individual firms. A simple three-relations model is studied as an illustration of the method and is followed by the study of a larger and more detailed model. The numerical characteristics of each model have been estimated by new methods. Critical analysis of the data used concludes the volume. The Monograph does not claim to have given final answers. Its results will have to be revised in the light of more and better data, better statistical methods and in the light of further theoretical study, especially the study of cost and price formation. The limited data will never permit the empirical testing of very detailed models involving numerous variables and equations. But there is a variety of ways in which, for example, "total production" can be split into a few distinct components. In particular, two-section models (urban vs. rural; or two countries trading with each other) were the subject of staff work during 1947. Under the joint guidance of the Cowles Commission and the Agricultural Economics Research group of the University of Chicago (Professors T. W. Schultz and Gale Johnson), Cooper continued the work of Haavelmo on the agricultural sector. For the time being, it is not attempted to estimate demand or supply functions for single food items, but rather to show the interrelations between the whole urban and the whole rural sector, hoping to discover, in particular, what determines the demand and supply of labor and its movements between the sectors. In the course of these studies, the importance of measuring the relation between weather and crop yields was recognized; on this subject preliminary models were constructed and data collected by Arrow and Rubin. The general methodology of empirical economics has been discussed by Hurwicz and by Marschak and in Koopmans' review article, "Measurement without Theory." The following list of staff papers is a chronological one and may thus illustrate the process of cross-fertilization and maturation of ideas within a cooperative group. (The letter (P) indicates items published, or presented in meetings or lectures during 1947. The place and date of publication or presentation of such items will be found in the section "Staff Notes and Publications" which also includes the discussion items and draft papers which were mentioned in the five-year report, 1942–1946, but reached the publication stage in 1947. The letter (V) indicates staff discussions opened by a visitor's paper. Visitors stayed for various periods, from three days to a large part of the year. Some of those who stayed long participated fully in staff work regardless of official affiliation.)
2. Revision of Economic Fundamentals The logical consistency of an aggregative model (such as the Keynesian one), and its relation to the theories (such as the Walrasian theory) of the individual firm and household, have naturally occupied the minds of the staff economists for some time. This is the subject of Patinkin's Ph.D. thesis; it emphasizes that if a system of behavior and market equations is inconsistent, then some groups are forced to abandon their desired behavior pattern. This is linked to the concept of "involuntary unemployment." The problem of connecting the theory of single individuals producing and using numerous commodities, with the theory of a few large national aggregates, has important statistical implications. If, say, the relation between total consumption, total income, price level, etc., is subject to random disturbances, these must have their origin, at least in part, in the random elements of the behavior of single individuals. On these lines, studied by Haavelmo and Arrow, one may hope to solve the problem of "best index numbers," and to combine in the best possible way the use of aggregate time series with "cross-section data" on family budgets, on firms' costs and outputs, or on their attitudes. Because of the random features in the economic, as well as in the political and the climatic, environment, each firm acts under conditions of uncertainty. A theory of firms' behavior under such conditions has been developed by Arrow building forth on some earlier work of Hurwicz (Cowles Commission Paper, New Series No. 16: Theory of the Firm and of Investment). Marschak studied the impact of taxes upon firms' behavior under conditions of uncertainty. Simon's contribution to the study on the economic aspects of atomic energy was based on a theoretical analysis of effects of inventions. This led him to the reconsideration of the theory of production functions, with the emphasis on the coexistence of different technical methods. This may explain the discontinuous response of output to some price changes and the "trigger effect" of some inventions. Discontinuous responses of quantities to prices (and conversely), the important practical problems arising therefrom, and the mathematical solution of such problems have also occupied Koopmans (in connection with his study of transportation) and Hurwicz. The following discussion papers can be listed (chronologically) as dealing with the revision of economic fundamentals (as defined above).
3. Revision of Statistical Tools The contents of the Cowles Commission Monograph No. 10, "Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models" were given in the 1942–46 report. The shortage of printing facilities has held up the publication of this monograph. In the meantime, Anderson and Rubin have prepared an extensive manuscript on the estimation of a single difference equation in a complete model. Such estimation of a part, instead of the whole, of the model leads to statistically less accurate results but seems to be less laborious and is more flexible since it requires fewer theoretical assumptions regarding the part of the model in which the investigator has little interest, e.g. for reasons of practical policy under consideration. Rubin has extended the method to the case where two or more equations, which form part of a larger model, are estimated simultaneously; and the case when non-linear relations are admitted into parts or the whole of the model. Anderson, Hurwicz and Reiersøl have studied problems arising when not only each behavior relationship is subject to a random disturbance ("shocks") but when each variable is also subject to a random disturbance ("errors" — in particular, errors of measurement). During the last months of the year a cooperative study was made by Koopmans and two visitors: Olav Reiersol (University Norway, Oslo; a Rockefeller Fellow) and George Rasch (State Serum Institute, University of Copenhagen, Denmark; a Fellow of the University of Chicago). They made a comparative study of problems arising from the specification of models, in particular problems of identification, in three fields: a multivariate model designed for the study of human metabolism; a model designed for the analysis of mental aptitudes; and an econometric model of the type employed by the Cowles Commission in its economic research. The similarities and differences encountered help to understand the nature of scientific induction. Computational work at the Chicago office was directed by De Vries. Later in the summer, the Thomas Watson Laboratories at Columbia University kindly permitted the use of their computing machines, including the relay calculator. On a part-time assignment in New York, Chernoff is studying for the Cowles Commission the applicability of these machines to the computational problems arising in the estimation of economic structure according to multi-equational economic models. In March, the third Cowles Commission Conference on Statistical Methods was held. While problems of multi-equational models were again discussed, the main conference work dealt with stochastic processes, another subject of obvious importance to the student of economic time series. The program was as follows:
Other problems of statistical method discussed during the year are indicated (in chronological order) by the title of the following papers (as defined above).
II. STUDY OF THE ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF ATOMIC ENERGY This study [Economic Aspects of Atomic Power (11,735 kb)], sponsored by the Social Science Research Council (Committee on Social Aspects of Atomic Energy; W. Riefler, Chairman) and the Rockefeller Foundation, started in October 1946; the technological chapters, completed in first draft during 1947, are now being circulated to experts. The outline of the study is as follows:
World maps of electricity cost and of the distribution of solid fuels and water power will be attached to Chapter 2. The main work in directing and editing the study has been done by Schurr. Boorstein worked mainly on the subject of Chapter 2 (atomic energy in the fuel and power economy of various regions of the world) and prepared a preliminary draft of this chapter. Perazich gave general engineering advice and worked in particular on the subject of various energy-consuming industries, treated in Chapters 3–5 and 7–9; he prepared preliminary drafts of these chapters. Drafts of other chapters were prepared by Schurr (Chapter 1) and by part-time consultants, Harold Wein (Chapter 6) and Herbert Simon (Chapters 10–11). Cartographic help was provided by Robert Carmin of the Department of Geography and Geology, Michigan State College. Valuable aid has been derived from consultation with various technical experts, in particular Mr. A.B. Kinzel, Union Carbide and Carbon Corporation, and Mr. Philip Sporn, American Gas and Electric Service Corporation. Two Cowles Commission Special Papers issued in 1947 contained some preliminary results of the study. One paper ("Nuclear Fission as a Source of Power") is that of John Menke of the Clinton Laboratories at Oak Ridge; it was prepared for the Cowles Commission in 1946, but its publication was delayed. The other paper ("The Economic Aspects of Atomic Power") includes a report presented by Schurr at the meeting of the American Economic Association, with criticisms by Philip Sporn; and an earlier article by Marschak. III. OTHER STUDIES 1. THEORY OF TRANSPORTATION. The study of the economics of transportation conducted by Koopmans, and described in the five-year report 1942–1946, is being continued. He is broadening the theoretical basis of this study by a mathematical analysis of productive systems characterized by linear production functions. 2. POLITICAL STATISTICS. This work of H.T. Davis is based in part on extensive studies carried on during the past five years on price and wage patterns in antiquity. This book (320 pages) has been issued in a limited mimeographed edition and includes the following chapters:
3. BIBLIOGRAPHY OF MATHEMATICAL TABLES by H.T. Davis (with the assistance of Vera Fisher). This inclusive bibliography when finally produced will have an approximate length of 200 pages of which 91 pages have already been prepared in mimeographed form. 4. THE EQUATIONS OF MATHEMATICAL PHYSICS AND METHODS FOR THEIR SOLUTION by H.T. Davis. Approximately 150 pages have been completed in mimeographed form and an additional 150 pages are projected. The table of contents includes the following chapters:
IV. COWLES COMMISSION SEMINARS During 1947 the following Cowles Commission Seminars were held:
Beginning in October some of the Cowles Commission Seminars have been held jointly with the Statistical Techniques Group of the Chicago Chapter of the American Statistical Association (Kenneth J. Arrow, Group Chairman). In particular, the papers by Milton Friedman and George Rasch were presented in a joint meeting of the two groups. This arrangement will continue in 1948, whenever the subject of the paper seems appropriate. V. COWLES COMMISSION PAPERS Six Cowles Commission papers have been issued in 1947. While the New Series now includes papers devoted to econometric research, a series of Special Papers has been started to include special studies. In 1947, these were studies on the economic aspects of atomic energy. 1. New Series No. 19. THE PROBLEM OF AGGREGATION. KENNETH MAY, "The Aggregation Problem for a One-Industry Model," Econometrica, Vol. 14, October, 1946, pp. 285–298; SHOU SHAN PU, "A Note on Macroeconomics," Econometrica, Vol. 14, October, 1946, pp. 299–302; LAWRENCE R. KLEIN, "Remarks on the Theory of Aggregation," Econometrica, Vol. 14, October, 1946, pp. 303–312; KENNETH MAY, "Technological Change and Aggregation," Econometrica, Vol. 15, January, 1947, pp. 51–63. No. 20. NOTES ON THE DOOLITTLE SOLUTION. NANCY BRUNER, "Note on the Doolittle Solution," Econometrica, Vol. 15, January, 1947, pp. 43–44; DICKSON H. LEAVENS, "Accuracy in the Doolittle Solution," Econometrica, Vol. 15, January, 1947, pp. 45–50. No. 21. THREE PAPERS ON SERIAL-CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS AND OSCILLATORY TIME SERIES. R. B. LEIPNIK, "Distribution of the Serial Correlation Coefficient in a Circularly Correlated Universe," The Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 18, March, 1947, pp. 80–87; T.W. ANDERSON, "Review of Kendall, Contributions to the Study of Oscillatory Time Series," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 42, March, 1947, pp. 187–188; T. W. ANDERSON, "A Note on a Maximum Likelihood Estimate," Econometrica, Vol. 15, July, 1947, pp. 241–244. No. 22. TRYGVE HAAVELMO, "Methods of Measuring the Marginal Propensity to Consume," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 42, March, 1947, pp. 105–122. No. 23. LAWRENCE R. KLEIN, "The Use of Econometric Models as a Guide to Economic Policy," Econometrica, Vol. 15, April, 1947, pp. 111–151. No. 24. M. A. GIRSHICK and TRYGVE HAAVELMO, "Statistical Analysis of the Demand for Food: Examples of Simultaneous Estimation of Structural Equations," Econometrica, Vol. 15, April, 1947, pp. 79–110. No. 25. Two REVIEW ARTICLES. T. C. KOOPMANS, "Measurement without Theory" (Burns and Mitchell, "Measuring Business Cycles"), Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 29, August, 1947, pp. 161–172; JACOB MARSCHAK, "On Mathematics for Economists" (Crum and Schumpeter, "Rudimentary Mathematics for Economists and Statisticians"), Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 29, November, 1947, pp. 269–273. No. 1. JOHN R. MENKE, "Nuclear Fission as a Source of Power," Econometrica, Vol. 15, October, 1947, pp. 314–334. No. 2. JACOB MARSCHAK, SAM H. SCHURR, and PHILIP SPORN, "Economic Aspects of Atomic Power," American Economic Review, Vol. 37, May, 1947, pp. 98–108, 111–117; Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Vol. 2, September 1, 1946, pp. 8–9. VI. STAFF NOTES AND PUBLICATIONS THEODORE W. ANDERSON continued as research consultant of the Cowles Commission while teaching at Columbia University where he also did consulting work at the Bureau of Applied Social Research. On July 1, he became assistant professor at Columbia University and went on a year's leave of absence as a Guggenheim Fellow. Since September, he has been doing research work at the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, University of Stockholm, Sweden. His papers, published or presented in 1947, are the following:
KENNETH J. ARROW , who joined the Cowles Commission in April, 1947 (see Biographical Notes in the 1942–46 Report), has published or presented during 1947 the following papers:
EDWARD BOORSTEIN continued his work with the study group on the economic aspects of atomic energy until December, 1947 when he went to Berlin, Germany, to work as an economist-statistician with the U.S. Army Occupation Forces. Boorstein addressed a University class on Social and Economic Planning, on October 22, 19'47 his subject being: "Possible Use of Atomic Energy in Industrialization Programs." HERMAN CHERNOFF (B.A., College of the City of New York, 1943; Sc.M., Brown University, 1945; National Research Council Predoctoral Fellow 1946–7) became a research assistant with the Cowles Commission in June, 1947. He has been adapting computations of multi-equation estimates to International Business Machines equipment and the relay calculator at Watson Laboratories, Columbia University, New York City. He is the author of the following papers:
GERSHON COOPER, during the Spring Quarter, Gershon Cooper participated in the leadership of a University seminar on Agricultural Demand Analysis. He became a research associate of the Cowles Commission on July 1, 1947. During 1947 he has presented the following paper:
HAROLD T. DAVIS continued as research consultant during 1947. In addition to the mimeographed "Political Statistics" mentioned in Section III.2, he has issued the following papers and presented the following addresses:
BAREND DEVRIES continued as research assistant and graduate student in economics. He is the holder of a departmental scholarship at the University of Chicago for 1947–48. His duties with the Cowles Commission include the supervision of all computations which are carried on at Chicago and which apply the methods developed by the Commission during the last few years. EVSEY D. DOMAR became a research associate in July, 1947. He holds a B.A. from the University of California at Los Angeles, 1939; M.A. in Mathematics from the University of Michigan, 1941; M.A. and Ph.D. from Harvard (1943–47). His doctoral thesis was on the Economics of Expansion. Domar was a teaching fellow at Michigan (1940–41) and Harvard (1941–43). In 1943 he joined the Division of Research and Statistics of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In 1946 he returned to academic pursuits as an assistant professor of economics at the Carnegie Institute of Technology, and in 1947 joined the University of Chicago with the same rank. He also taught at George Washington University (summer 1944) and University of Michigan (summer 1946). Papers by Domar during 1947 were as follows:
MEYER A. GIRSHICK continued as research consultant with the Cowles Commission. He was with the U. S. Bureau of the Census until October, 1947 when he accepted a position as a statistician with the Douglas Aircraft Corporation, Santa Monica, California. During 1947 he published or presented the following papers:
TRYGVE HAAVELMO left Chicago in March 1947 and became research consultant to the University Institute of Economics, Oslo. He has continued his connection with the Cowles Commission as a research consultant. The following papers were published or presented by Haavelmo during 1947:
LEONID HURWICZ continued actively as a research consultant of the Cowles Commission, coming regularly from Ames, Iowa to staff meetings. He was elected chairman of the 1947–48 Social Science Seminar, Iowa State College. During the second half of the year he acted intermittently as consultant to the U.S. Bureau of Standards. He is associate editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association, and was elected Fellow of the Econometric Society. Hurwicz's addresses and papers are listed below:
LAWRENCE R. KLEIN was a research associate until July, 1947 when he obtained a travelling Fellowship of the Social Science Research Council to study economic planning in Norway. Before going to Norway, Klein spent a few months in Canada as a consultant to the Director General of the Economic Research Branch, Department of Reconstruction and Supply, Government of Canada. His publications and addresses are listed below.
TJALLING C. KOOPMANS continued as research associate of the Cowles Commission and associate professor of economics at the University of Chicago. He published or presented the following papers during 1947:
DICKSON H. LEAVENS resigned from the staff of the Cowles Commission, effective on June 30, 1947, and in September moved to 1632 Wood Avenue, Colorado Springs, Colorado. He is continuing as Managing Editor of Econometrica. His publications and addresses are as follows:
JACOB MARSCHAK continued as research director of the Cowles Commission and professor of economics at the University of Chicago. In 1947 he was chairman of the Conference for Research in Income and Wealth organized under the National Bureau for Economic Research. He was vice-president of the American Statistical Association, director of its Chicago Chapter and collaborating editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association; he was elected Fellow of that Association. He participated in the Conference of the Norman Wait Harrison Memorial Foundation Institute, devoted to problems of the world community. He was active in the organization of the International Statistical Conferences which were held in September, 1947 in Washington, D.C.; he is a member of the publications subcommittee of the Conferences. His addresses and publications in 1947 were as follows:
KENNETH MAY continued as research consultant of the Cowles Commission, coming from time to time from Carleton College, where he is assistant professor of mathematics, to participate in the Cowles Commission Seminars. He taught at the University of Minnesota Summer Session, 1947. His publications and addresses during 1947 were as follows:
DON PATINKIN continued as research associate of the Cowles Commission. In June, 1947 he became assistant professor of economics at the University of Chicago. A list of his publications and addresses follows:
GEORGE PERAZICH, his work for the atomic energy group is described in Section II. His chapter drafts have been mimeographed and circulated to technical experts. In October. 1947 he left Chicago but continued as a part-time research consultant until the end of the year. HERMAN RUBIN left the Cowles Commission in September, 1947 to become a research fellow with the Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton University. However, he continued to cooperate closely with the Cowles Commission as its research consultant. During 1947 he prepared in mimeographed form (44 pages) a draft of his Ph.D. thesis, "Symptoms of Linear Stochastic Equations." In addition, the following papers were presented and prepared by him during 1947:
SAM H. SCHURR continued his work in directing and editing the study on economic aspects of atomic energy, and published or presented the following papers:
HERBERT A. SIMON continued as research consultant of the Cowles Commission, and was active both in the study group on atomic energy and as the author of staff discussion papers on the mathematical theory of technological change. He acted as consultant to the U.S. Census Bureau in reviewing and revising the work program of the Governments Division. The list of his publications and addresses of this year follows:
VII. STATISTICAL AND ECONOMETRIC TEACHING Staff members of the Cowles Commission participate in the teaching activities of the University of Chicago, especially in the field of statistics and economic theory. Stress is laid upon the connection among mathematics, economics, and statistics. The following courses are listed by the Economics Department (but not all are given every year): INTRODUCTION TO STATISTICS. Elementary principles of statistics. Main topics: frequency distributions, averages, dispersion and skewness, time series, index numbers, simple correlation, elements of sampling, and statistical inference. STATISTICAL INFERENCE (two two-course sequences). A survey of the principles of statistical inference, with emphasis on the techniques useful in applying these principles to the analysis of social, economic, and business data. Among the subjects treated will be: elements of probability; concepts of population, sample, and sampling distribution; choice of estimates in the light of their sampling properties; testing hypotheses with reference to specified alternatives; principles of sampling and sample design; analysis of proportions, means and standard deviations; simple, partial, and multiple regression and correlation. These courses are given in two sequences covering substantially the same statistical principles and procedures, one section making less use of explicit mathematical formulations than the other. INTRODUCTION TO ECONOMETRICS. Statistical testing of economic theories. Numerical estimation of demand and cost functions and other functions occurring in the theory of the firm and household, the theory of markets, and the theory of national income. Estimation of economic models. Statistical prediction under conditions of changing economic structure and policy. STATISTICAL METHODS OF MEASURING ECONOMIC RELATIONS. Systems of economic relationships. Prediction and structural estimation. Criteria for identifiability, and methods of estimation, of economic relations. Problems connected with time lags. APPLICATIONS OF STATISTICAL ANALYSIS. The content of this course will vary from one year to another, but will concern applications of statistics to business, economic, and social data. For example, members of the class individually or jointly may carry through a statistical investigation; or a series of statistical studies in economics or business may be analyzed in detail; or some special field of application may be studied. THE MAIN ECONOMIC MAGNITUDES. Survey of sources and methods for estimating national income, capital formation, consumption, balance of payments, monetary circulation, and prices. Attention is given to practical work. Students have opportunity to familiarize themselves with the sources and techniques relevant to the statistical study of the American Economy. INTRODUCTION TO MATHEMATICS FOR ECONOMISTS. A survey of those parts of mathematical analysis which are used in economics. Fundamental mathematical concepts: function, limits. Dimensions. Elementary calculus. The application to economics is stressed throughout. PROBLEMS IN MATHEMATICAL ECONOMICS. Elements of advanced calculus and of ordinary and differential equations applied to fundamental economic problems. The material is arranged in the order of increasing mathematical difficulty. ECONOMETRICS OF BUSINESS FLUCTUATIONS. Mathematical formulation and statistical testing of theories of economic change. Growth and fluctuations. Prediction and policy. These courses are additional to the relevant courses given in the School of Business and the Departments of Education, Mathematics, Psychology, Sociology, and Zoology. Staff members of the Cowles Commission are scheduled to give a large part of the courses listed above and of the following courses: THE DIVISIONAL COURSE IN ECONOMICS; and THE THEORY OF INCOME AND EMPLOYMENT. VIII. ADVISORY COMMITTEE The University of Chicago Advisory Committee of the Cowles Commission continued to act as a coordinator of the work of the Cowles Commission with other research and teaching work at the University. The chairman was Professor T. W. Schultz, Chairman of the Department of Economics. It is intended to reorganize the relationship between the Cowles Commission and the University to secure closer administrative collaboration. IX. GRANTS Acknowledgment is made to the Rockefeller Foundation, the Social Science Research Council, and the Social Science Research Committee of the University of Chicago for financial assistance in the research work of the Cowles Commission. It should also be added that the Cowles Commission has on occasion derived much benefit from visits of Fellows of the Rockefeller Foundation. X. SARAH FRANCES HUTCHINSON–COWLES FELLOWSHIPS Mrs. Kenneth J. Arrow (formerly Miss Selma Schweitzer) was the holder of the Sarah Frances Hutchinson Cowles Fellowship during the calendar year 1947; Mrs. Lawrence Klein (formerly Miss Sonia Adelson) continued her Fellowship until July, 1947. Miss Francoise M.S. Ferdinand-Dreyfus, formerly of the Institute of Statistics, University of Paris, became a Fellow in October, 1947. XI. OFFICES, EQUIPMENT AND LIBRARY The Commission's working library concentrates on quantitative economics and on statistics and mathematics. Additions to the library total 210 books, 405 pamphlets and 24 bound volumes of journals. 90 periodicals are received currently. The total collection consists of 2010 books, 3505 pamphlets, 376 bound journal volumes. In addition, the library of the late Professor Henry Schultz is kept in the Commission's offices; it contains 950 books and 1750 pamphlets. There were no changes in office space or equipment except the acquisition of two modern computing machines. Two older models were turned in exchange for one of the two new machines. XII. THE ECONOMETRIC SOCIETY The Cowles Commission offices have continued to serve as headquarters of the Econometric Society, an international society for the advancement of economic theory in its relation to statistics and mathematics. However, Dickson H. Leavens, the managing editor of the Society's journal, Econometrica, changed his residence during 1947 and continues this work in Colorado Springs. Several members of the Cowles Commission staff hold offices in the Society. Alfred Cowles is secretary-treasurer and business manager of Econometrica. Harold T. Davis is associate editor. Jacob Marschak, a member of the Council of the Econometric Society, was chairman of the program committee which organized the meetings of the Society at Atlantic City in January, and at Washington in September; Tjalling C. Koopmans was chairman of the program committee in charge of the Chicago meetings in December. The September meetings of the Econometric Society were held on the occasion of the International Statistical Conferences in which the following other associations participated: International Statistical Institute; United Nations World Statistical Congress; the Inter-American Statistical Institute ; and the International Union for the Scientific Investigation of Population Problems. An International Association for Research in Income and Wealth was founded during the meetings. There were 616 participants, representing 56 countries. During 1947 Volume 15 of Econometrica was published consisting of four quarterly issues totalling 368 pages. At the end of 1947 the regular mailing list consisted of 726 members of the Society and 540 nonmember subscribers, chiefly libraries. 418 members and 258 subscribers are in the United States, and the remainder in 50 foreign countries. |
