PURPOSE
The Cowles Commission for Research in Economics was founded in 1932 as a not-for-profit
corporation to conduct investigations into problems of current economic interest, with
particular reference to the application of statistics and mathematics in the solution of
these problems. Any activity which promises ultimately to further the unification of
theoretical and factual studies in economics is within the sphere of interest of the
Commission.
The personnel of the Commission includes Alfred Cowles 3rd, president; Charles F. Roos,
director of research; Harold T. Davis, Edward N. Chapman, and Dickson H. Leavens, research
associates; Forrest Danson, statistician; Herbert E. Jones and Gerhard Tintner, research
fellows; Ragnar Frisch of the University of Norway, Oslo, research consultant. The
Commission also employs several full-time secretaries and computers, approximately twelve
part-time college student computers, and a number of graduate student assistants. Besides
the ordinary computing machinery, the laboratory is equipped with Hollerith card-punching,
sorting, and tabulating machines.
William F.C. Nelson, who had served as economist of the Cowles Commission and assistant
editor of Econometrica since 1932, died in May, 1936.
The Advisory Council of the Commission is composed of Ragnar Frisch, University of Norway,
Oslo, research consultant for the Commission; Irving Fisher, Yale University; Arthur L.
Bowley, London University; Wesley C. Mitchell, Columbia University; and Carl Snyder, for
many years with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
The Commission is affiliated with the international Econometric Society of which Alfred
Cowles 3rd is treasurer and Charles F. Roos secretary. The office of Econometrica,
the journal of the Society, is located at the Cowles Commission. In 1936 the Commission
continued its subvention of this journal. The editor is Ragnar Frisch, and the following
members of the Commission have assisted in the publication: William F.C. Nelson as
assistant editor until his death in May, Dickson H. Leavens as managing editor since
October, Harold T. Davis as one of the associate editors, Charles F. Roos as a member of
the advisory editorial board, and Alfred Cowles 3rd as business manager.
RESEARCH FELLOWSHIPS
The Commission has recently established two Research Fellowships of $1000 a year each.
These will be awarded to promising young men, with the doctor's degree or equivalent
experience, who have demonstrated ability to do constructive research in the field of
economics and statistics. The purpose of the Fellowships is not so much to give the formal
theoretical training which is best obtained at a large university, as to supply a
familiarity with the problems which arise in connection with actual statistical
investigations. The Research Fellows are expected to acquire familiarity with various
types of computing machinery and techniques, and in other ways to fit themselves for the
supervision of extensive research projects.
For the year 1936–37 Cowles Commission Research Fellowships have been awarded to
Herbert E. Jones and Gerhard Tintner. Mr. Jones is a graduate of Stanford University,
A.B., 1926, and Degree in Engineering, 1928. He has written several papers on statistical
and economic topics. He worked for four years as hydraulic engineer for the Federal Water
Service Corporation in San Francisco and New York, taught mathematics in an extension
course of the University of Colorado, and has taken graduate work at Colorado College.
Gerhard Tintner received his doctor's degree in Economics and Law at the University of
Vienna in 1928, where he also studied statistics and mathematics. Following his graduation
he wrote a book, Prices in the Trade Cycle, which was published in Vienna in 1935
by the Austrian Institute for Trade Cycle Research with which he was formerly connected.
He also studied at the University of London. During 1934 and 1935 he held a Rockefeller
fellowship, visiting the University of California and Harvard, Columbia, Chicago, and
Stanford Universities; he also spent six months at Cambridge, England, and at the Ecole
Polytechnique in Paris. He has written articles on economic and statistical topics for
Viennese economic journals, for Econometrica, and for the Journal of Political
Economy.
COWLES
COMMISSION MONOGRAPHS
A function of the Commission is to issue, from time to time, various monographs of an
economic-statistical or econometric nature without, however, assuming responsibility for
theories or opinions expressed therein.
Monograph No. 1 entitled Dynamic
Economics: Theoretical and Statistical Studies of Demand, Production, and Prices, by
Charles F. Roos, director of research for the Cowles Commission, was published in 1934 by
the Principia Press of Bloomington, Indiana.
Monograph No. 2, entitled NRA
Economic Planning, by Charles F. Roos, was in press at the end of the year for
publication in February, 1937 by the Principia Press. The author served as principal
economist and director of research on policy matters of the National Recovery
Administration from July, 1933 to September, 1934. His intimate experience with the
organization and personnel, combined with his theoretical training in the fields of
economics, statistics, accounting, and engineering, have fitted him in an exceptional way
to write on the NRA with a critical scientific attitude, aided by familiarity with actual
conditions.
The book first traces the factors which had their part in the development of NRA, the
drafting and passage of the Act, and the personnel and organization of the National
Recovery Administration. Later chapters discuss the background of issues involving hours
of work, wages, collective bargaining, costs, prices, fair trade practices, effects on
small business men, and the whole problem of economic planning. Solutions attempted by the
NRA are described, the reasons for adopting them given, and the degree of their success
appraised. Many fundamental policy memoranda are reproduced in part or in full.
In each chapter an attempt is made to outline the rapidly changing decisions and the
reasons therefore. A further aim is to provide more complete statistical data as an aid in
the analysis of the general economic and social objectives and accomplishments of the NRA.
Finally, an endeavor is made to appraise constructively this great undertaking. Thus, in
the light of this experience, is attempted an answer to the important question: What can
we expect from economic planning?
Monograph No. 3, on common stock
indexes, mentioned in last year's report, will be published during 1937. This volume will
contain new monthly indexes of (1) stock prices, (2) stock prices adjusted for
reinvestment of dividends, (3) dividend payments, and (4) yields; and annual indexes of
(5) earnings and (6) earnings–price ratios. All proper adjustments have been made for
stock rights, stock dividends, and other changes in capital structure. These indexes have
been computed for 68 industry groups. They include all stocks in which transactions on the
New York Stock Exchange have been reported during the years 1871–1917; for subsequent
years they are based on the Standard Statistics indexes which include over 90 per cent of
the total value of common stocks listed on the New York Stock Exchange, as well as other
leading issues.
Considerable progress has been made on the companion volume in which the movements of
stock prices, as shown by the new Cowles Commission indexes, will be analyzed. Differences
in yields for various groups will be considered. Trends will be investigated and an
attempt made to determine the factors which influence them. Relative variability for
prices in different groups and the evidence as to cyclical and seasonal variation will be
thoroughly considered by means of a variety of techniques. Finally, an attempt will be
made, in the light of statistical evidence, to appraise various theories of stock price
action.
STAFF PUBLICATIONS AND PAPERS
The Commission, in addition to its own Monographs, encourages the publication of the
individual work of its staff.
The textbook, Elements of Statistics, 424 pp., by Harold T. Davis and William F.C.
Nelson, published in July, 1935 by the Principia Press of Bloomington, Indiana, has,
during the last year, been adopted as a text by a number of colleges and universities in
the United States and abroad. [Second edition (12,564 kb), 1937]
In October, 1936 a mathematical treatise, The Theory of Linear Operators, by Harold
T. Davis, 628 pp., was published by the Principia Press.
During 1936 the following papers by staff members were published or presented at
scientific meetings, in addition to papers presented at St. Louis in January, 1936, which
were listed in the report for 1935:
- "Evidence of Structure in Common Stock Prices," by Alfred Cowles 3rd,
presented August 7 at the Cowles Commission Research Conference.
- "Some a Posteriori Probability Considerations of Stock Market Action," by
Alfred Cowles 3rd and Herbert E. Jones, presented December 29 at the Chicago meeting of
the Econometric Society.
- "Annual Survey of Statistical Techniques : The Correlation and Analysis of Time
Series — Part II," by Charles F. Roos, Econometrica, Vol. 4, October
1936, pp. 368–381.
- "Some Economic Effects of Wage Regulation on Interstate Trade," by Charles F.
Roos, presented July 25 at the Cowles Commission Research Conference.
- "A General Invariant Criterion of Fit for Lines, Planes, and Functions Expandable
in Series, Where all Variates are Subject to Error," by Charles F. Roos, presented in
preliminary form August 5 at the Cowles Commission Research Conference, and in final form
December 28 at the meeting of the American Statistical Association and the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics.
- "New Indexes of Stock Prices and Yields and their Relation to Some Theories of
Capital and Saving," by Charles F. Roos, presented December 28 at the Chicago Meeting
of the Econometric Society.
- "Significance of Analysis of Variance of Time Series," by Harold T. Davis,
presented August 7 at the Cowles Commission Research Conference.
- "Significance Tests for Periodogram Analysis with Application to Prices of Common
Stocks," by Harold T. Davis, presented August 8 at the Cowles Commission Research
Conference.
- "The Accumulation of the Precious Metals in India and China," by Dickson H.
Leavens, presented July 15 at the Cowles Commission Research Conference.
- "Silver at the Second Session of the Seventy-fourth Congress," by Dickson H.
Leavens, Finance and Commerce, Shanghai, Vol. 28, July, 29 1936, pp. 125–127.
- "The Silver Clause in China," by Dickson H. Leavens, American Economic
Review, Vol. 26, December 1936, pp. 650–659.
- "The Nature of Regression Functions in the Correlation Analysis of Time
Series," by Herbert E. Jones, presented in preliminary form July 21 at the Cowles
Commission Research Conference, and in final form December 28 at the Chicago meeting of
the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.
- "A Note on Distribution of Income over Time," by Gerhard Tintner, Econometrica,
Vol. 4, January, 1936, pp. 60–66.
- "Internationale Konjunkturforschung" by Gerhard Tintner, Der
Oesterreichische Volkswirt, Vol. 28, July 4, 1936, pp. 783–784.
- "Expectations and Statistical Theory of Errors," by Gerhard Tintner, presented
December 30 at the Chicago meeting of the Econometric Society.
THE 1936 RESEARCH CONFERENCE
The Cowles Commission Second Annual Research Conference on Economics and Statistics was
held at Colorado College, Colorado Springs, from July 6 to August 8, 1936.
Thirty-seven lectures were given by the following speakers: Alfred Cowles 3rd, Cowles
Commission; Harold T. Davis, Indiana University; Edward L. Dodd, University of Texas;
Irving Fisher, Yale University; R.A. Fisher, University of London; Corrado Gini,
University of Rome; C.C. Grove, College of the City of New York; Harry Pelle Harrkemeier,
University of Missouri; Anson Hayes, American Rolling Mills Company; Herbert E. Jones,
Cowles Commission; Dickson H. Leavens, Cowles Commission; Alfred J. Lotka, Metropolitan
Life Insurance Company; Joseph Mayer, formerly of Tufts College; Tord Palander,
Rockefeller Fellow, Stockholm; Thomas H. Rawles, Colorado College; Charles F. Roos, Cowles
Commission; Walter A. Shewhart, Bell Telephone Laboratories, Incorporated; Carl Snyder,
for many years with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; D.I. Vinogradoff, Westinghouse
Electric and Manufacturing Company; and Elmer J. Working, University of Illinois. Over
fifty out-of-town guests attended part or all of the sessions.
Abstracts of the papers presented have
been published in Colorado College Publication, General Series, No. 208, 119 pp.
Copies may be obtained from the Cowles Commission.
THE 1937 RESEARCH CONFERENCE
The Cowles Commission
Third Annual Research Conference on Economics and Statistics will be held at Colorado
College, Colorado Springs, from June 28 to July 23, 1937, immediately following the Denver
meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Among the speakers
will be Louis H. Bean, United States Department of Agriculture; Theodore H. Brown, Harvard
Business School; Harold T. Davis, Indiana University; Edward L. Dodd, University of Texas;
Griffith C. Evans, University of California; Ragnar Frisch, University of Norway; Charles
F. Roos, Cowles Commission; Joseph Schumpeter, Harvard University; J. Shohat, University
of Pennsylvania; Carl Snyder, for many years with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York;
S.S. Wilks, Princeton University; Elmer J. Working, University of Illinois; and Holbrook
Working of Stanford University. Several other speakers will be added to the foregoing
list.
The aim of the Conference is to provide an opportunity for leaders in economics and
statistics to discuss their problems in a more leisurely manner than is possible in the
crowded sessions at the national meetings of the various learned societies. All serious
scholars, including teachers, research workers, and graduate students, will be welcome at
the Conference. There is no charge for attendance. Board and lodging for participants will
be available in the dormitories of Colorado College at a rate of $40 for the four-week
session, or $11 a week for those attending less than the full period. Further information
may be obtained on application to the Cowles Commission. |
