Research Activities, July 1, 1951 – June 30, 1952

Economics is both a descriptive and a prescriptive science. In a descriptive sense the economist studies the actual economic behavior of individuals and firms, singly or in groups, in a given environment. The prescriptive side of economics has two parts: the evaluation and selection of the most desirable social and economic objectives from among all those possible, and the evaluation and selection of the most effective means for achieving chosen objectives.

Cowles Commission research of the past year has contributed to both these areas of economics. Essential to the establishment of a prescriptive science is the delineation of objectives and their formulation in precise terms. Part of the work of the Commission, reported in Section 1 below, has been concerned with this task. Sections 2 and 3, on the other hand, report on theoretical studies of the Commission which assume some individual or social objective as given and evaluate the effectiveness of different forms of behavior or organization in accomplishing that objective under a variety of circumstances.

The descriptive phase of Cowles Commission work is covered principally in Section 4, which reports on empirical studies of actual economic behavior. Section 5 describes the development of the conceptual, statistical, and mathematical tools which serve the substantive research. Research during the year was influenced by three working conferences, two held at the Commission and one held in Washington, D.C. From October 29 to November 1, 1951, a small, intensive conference on Decision-Making under Uncertainty started off a Commission research project of the same name, initiated under a contract with the Office of Naval Research. In early January, 1952, staff members of the Commission participated in the Third Annual Logistics Conference in Washington, D.C., sponsored jointly by George Washington University and the Office of Naval Research. In April, the Commission was host to colleagues from the Bureau of Business and Economic Research of the University of Illinois and the Department of Industrial Management of the Carnegie Institute of Technology for an intensive three-day conference on Business Decision-Making. Participation in these conferences was a reflection of as well as a stimulant to, the research of the Commission during the year.

1. Formulation of Individual and Social Objectives

The traditional theory of individual choice starts with the assumption that the individual has a consistent preference (or indifference) between any two given states of life. It is often assumed that, if the states of life can be catalogued by a finite set of reference numbers (such as rates of consumption of specific goods and services), then the preference ordering can be represented by a numerical "utility function" of these numbers.

This function takes on the higher value for the preferred item in each pair of states of life under comparison, and the same value for the item in an indifferent pair. However, the number system may not be rich enough to provide a different numerical label for each set of mutually indifferent states of life. This will be the case if in the preference ordering one aspect of the state of life (say, the chance of escaping death) receives absolute priority over another aspect (say, the consumption of cigarettes). Aware of this logical possibility, known as a "lexicographic" ordering, Gerard Debreu has formulated conditions for a preference structure under which a numerical utility function does indeed exist. Visiting colleagues from the University of Michigan, the psychologist Clyde H. Coombs and the mathematician Robert M. Thrall, and an economist from Oxford University, I.M.D. Little, discussed related problems in staff meetings and seminars.

The connection between a utility function and the theory of choice is simplest in the case where the individual can by his own action choose, with certainty of attainment, any state of life (or "outcome") within a given set of states (known as his "opportunity set") and no others. If consistent and rational, he will then obviously select a state of life as good as or better than all other states open to him. The utility function obtained by observing choice in such circumstances is ordinal utility: it exhibits the fact of preference but not the strength of preference.

Cardinal utility — a procedure for expressing the preference for B over A as a multiple of that for C over A — can be constructed by observing choice in circumstances where the state of life achieved is the joint outcome of an act of choice and a chance event, unknown at the time of choice. For instance, an individual may be asked to choose between a glass of milk and a fifty-fifty chance for a cup of tea as against a cup of coffee. Axioms about individual choice that permit the construction of a cardinal utility on this basis were first developed by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern. .Stimulated by a reformulation of this axiom system by Jacob Marschak, described in an earlier report (1949–1950), I.N. Herstein and John Milnor (the latter of Princeton University) developed a further simplified system of behavior axioms that leads to cardinal utility by a more direct route of deductions.

The theory of choice is further complicated if the state of life achieved is the joint outcome of a choice act and an unknown state of the world which cannot even be described by a probability distribution. Most choices made in real life are of this kind. (San Francisco was built without knowing the probability distribution of earthquakes in that location.) Each action leads to a set of possible states of life containing the outcomes of that action under all conceivable states of the world. A variety of principles have been proposed for basing a preference ordering of such sets of states of life on a given cardinal utility function of the states of life contained in these sets. These principles have been appraised by asking the question: what does each principle make one do under each of various sets of circumstances? For instance, studies by statisticians have led to principles such as preferring that choice which minimizes the maximum loss (Abraham Wald), sustained by the individual after his choice is made and thereupon the state of the world is revealed. A modification of this is the principle of minimizing the maximum regret (L.J . Savage), that is the excess of the loss actually sustained over the loss that would have been incurred had the individual known the state of the world before making his choice.

The first version ("minimax loss") of this principle seems overly conservative if applied (as we assume here) in facing a neutral nature, such as when one sails in unknown waters, or sows in unknown climate or soil. It would lead us to take costly precautions (such as earthquake-proof buildings everywhere) against catastrophes. Under the second version ("minimax regret"), as shown by Herman Chernoff (Annual Report for 1949–1950), if opportunity limits the objects of choice, the preferred course of action may depend on whether some other nonpreferred course of action is available or not. Chernoff completed the study this year after adding many new considerations. This work has led Leonid Hurwicz to propose a less conservative principle of choice, considering both the best and the worst possible outcomes, on the basis of the incomplete information given, which can be associated with each course of action.

Marschak and Roy Radner, helped by their correspondence with Erich Lehmann, have studied situations where certain available courses of action, at a given cost of observation or experimentation, reduce the range of ignorance regarding the state of the world. The requirement that the choice principle be responsive to low cost opportunities to increase available information revealed further "unreasonable" features of both versions of the minimax principle and also of Hurwicz's generalization. Radner studied the question of when it is reasonable to add observations (and thus possibly to postpone choice). He also developed the concept of a "consistent" principle of choice which, with an indefinite increase in the number of observations, would converge toward that action which would be preferred if the state of the world were known. This concept is analogous to a consistent estimate or test in statistical theory.

Instead of asking for a definite principle of choice under ignorance, one may take a more detached attitude and require only that the various choices made when opportunities vary shall in some logical sense be consistent with each other. A study started earlier by Herman Rubin, indicating that this type of consistent choice pattern permits inferences about the degrees of belief (psychological probabilities) that the choosing individual associates with possible states of the world, was further advanced during the year.

It should be noted that the above criticisms of the minimax principle do not apply to its use in situations studied in the theory of games where the choosing individual does not face unknown blind forces of nature, but faces a calculating opponent who is out to win over him.

The foregoing studies are based on the assumption that an individual can choose among alternative states of life or among known probability mixtures of alternative states. Ethical judgments beyond the acceptance of individual preferences as a motive for decision-making do not arise. When one considers criteria for decision-making by groups, new problems, essentially ethical in nature, are encountered. Preferences of the individual members of a group will usually conflict to some extent and the best basis for resolving such conflicts is not intuitively clear.

Economists have frequently considered the problems of determining group preferences from individual preferences.

The Pareto criterion that there will be a group preference for one state of life over an alternative if some individuals prefer that state while none prefer the alternative has been fairly generally accepted.

Important conclusions — such as the usefulness of a price system in the allocation of resources — follow from this criterion, but many controversial issues cannot be resolved by it. The most important recent investigation of the possibility of developing stronger criteria is contained in Kenneth Arrow's book, Social Choice and Individual Values. As described in preceding annual reports, Arrow showed that if certain conditions are imposed on group preferences, such preferences can be obtained only in special cases.

Stimulated by this work, Clifford Hildreth has reconsidered the Arrow conditions and their motivation. He disagreed with Arrow's premise that a satisfactory set of group preferences could not be based on interpersonal comparisons of utility and regarded the problem as principally one of seeking ethical bases for making such comparisons. This difference led him to object to Arrow's Condition 3 (irrelevance of unavailable alternatives) and he has shown that if this condition is waived, the other conditions can be strengthened without giving rise to the difficulty that no admissible sets of group preferences exist.

Hildreth has also concluded that giving effect to individual preferences may be only one of a number of considerations on which criteria for group choice might be based. He has started to construct a more general theoretical framework in the hope that it will facilitate inclusion in the discussion of such values as individual freedom, security, equality, and other commonly cited criteria for evaluating public policies.

The following papers dealing with the formulation of objectives were those presented in staff meetings or completed or published during the year 1951–1952 by staff members or guests of the Commission. Papers marked by an asterisk are also included in the Appendix, which lists all papers published or publicly presented by staff members during the period, July 1, 1951–June 30, 1952.

Real Representation of a Preference Ordering: Debreu
A Comment to Marschak's paper on a Simplification of the Axiomatics of Measurable Utility: Herstein
Discussion of the Measurement of Individual and Social Utility: Coombs
Generalized Utility Functions: Thrall
Some Remarks on Utility: Little
Axiomatic Approach to Measurable Utility: Herstein and Milnor
Remarks on a Rational Selection of a Decision Function: Chernoff
Optimality Criteria for Decision-Making Under Ignorance: Hurwicz
Note on Optimality Criteria for Decision-Making: Herstein
Criteria for Planning Under Incomplete Information: Marschak and Radner
Note on Generalized Convex Functions and the Decision Problem: Radner
Use of Previous Experience in Decision-Making: Lehmann
Rational Selection of a Decision Function in an Observational Situation: Radner
Consistent Decision Functions and Hayes Solutions: Radner
Postulates for Rational Behavior Under Uncertainty: Rubin
Games Against Nature: Milnor
An Alternative Approach to Welfare Functions: Hildreth
Alternative Conditions for Social Orderings: Hildreth

2. The Pursuit of Given Objectives under Certainty

Once one or more objectives of economic behavior have been specified, the problem of how best to achieve the objective selected, or how best to strike a balance between competing objectives arises in many forms. The studies in this category are intended primarily as prescriptive, although some can better be seen as theoretical inquiries into what happens if different decision-makers pursue different individual objectives. The studies differ according to the number of individuals and the number and kinds of objectives considered, the restraints placed on the achievement of objectives by technological possibilities, and the extent to which risk or uncertainty surrounds the consequences of available actions. We shall in Section 2 review studies that assume certainty about the effects of decisions, and proceed in Section 3 to cases where risk or uncertainty is introduced.

The first group of studies (among those assuming certainty) examines static models of equilibrium in a society of utility and/or profit maximizers. It is a classical theorem of static welfare economics that a competitive market organization achieves efficiency (or "Pareto optimality") in the allocation of resources. By this is meant a state in which it is impossible, by changes in the production or in the distribution of goods, to increase any individual's utility any further without decreasing at least one other individual's utility. It has long been recognized that commodity taxes or subsidies have the effect of moving the economy away from the efficiency frontier reached by competitive organization. Various measures of the social loss associated with, such policies have been proposed. Debreu applied his coefficient of resource utilization (Annual Report for 1950–51, p. 15) to develop an improved measure of this loss. Unlike its predecessors, this measure recognizes the redistributive purpose of taxation: it compares the situation resulting from taxes and subsidies, not with the situation that would exist without these policies, but with a hypothetical situation in which the income distribution is the same as that resulting from taxes and subsidies, while their adverse allocative effects are removed.

The problem studied by Robert Strotz is a logical sequel to Debreu's measure of social loss. Accepting as a social objective, greater equality of incomes than that which would be achieved by the competitive market, he appraises alternative redistributive techniques by the extent to which they maintain allocative efficiency in the sense already explained.

The classical theorem concerning the efficiency of competitive market organization in a static economy, quoted above, depends on certain deep mathematical propositions that have only rarely been examined with the preciseness necessary in specifying technological and psychological assumptions. Mere counting of equations and unknowns is insufficient to establish the existence of a state in which each individual or firm has maximized its utility or profit at the given prices. Arrow and Debreu independently obtained, and will jointly complete, extensions and generalizations of earlier studies by Wald and by von Neumann on this fundamental problem of mathematical economics.

A closer approximation to economic reality is the aim of a second group of studies concerned with the arrangement of productive activities in space and in time. Martin Beckmann completed a study of a continuous model of transportation that he had started before joining the staff. This model assumes given continuous geographical distributions of supply and demand of a number of commodities and a given dependence of per-mile transportation cost on the location of the route. Minimization of the total transportation cost incurred in moving goods from where they are available to where they are wanted leads to a pattern of flow lines for each commodity, intersected at right angles by lines of equal price for that commodity. The price difference between two points on the same flow line equals the cost of transportation between these points. The problem of most economical return routing of empty equipment, studied separately in an earlier study by Tjalling C. Koopmans and Stanley Reiter (Cowles Commission Monograph 13, Chapter XIV), is incorporated in this study by treating equipment as one of the commodities in the model.

In order to provide empirical background for the problem of most efficient routing of empty railway cars in the United States, Kirk Fox has prepared data showing net surpluses of inflows over outflows of commodities carried in boxcars, for the eight quarters of 1949 and 1959, for each of twelve suitably chosen areas.

A second study by Beckmann deals with transportation on a given network of possibly congested roads. The traffic capacity of each road and the transportation cost on it, are both treated as functions of the (uniform) speed of vehicles (or trains or barges) using it. The capacities of intersections and the number of vehicles are introduced as given limiting factors. A routing of commodity and equipment flows so as to fit given availabilities of and requirements for commodities at given terminals at a minimum cost again implies a locational price pattern for each commodity. However, the price difference between two points connected by a flow of that commodity now also contains a charge for the passing of each congested road or intersection point on the way. This charge reflects the social cost that each vehicle causes by adding to congestion delays of other vehicles.

C.B. McGuire has made a study of the literature on highway and railway traffic engineering, in order to provide empirical background for the capacity and cost functions used in the network model just described. In addition, Beckmann and McGuire are studying the effects of individual choice of speeds and routes by vehicle drivers where only the cost of congestion to themselves is taken into account, which is realistic in the case of highway traffic.

In all the foregoing studies the locational distribution of productive activities is assumed to be given. To make it into a variable raises at the same time the problem of the treatment of indivisibilities in production, since the land or space input into any process of production cannot economically be made arbitrarily small. One is thus led to problems of maximizing the utilization of resources by reshuffiing (permutation) of productive activities over available elementary land or space units. A forthcoming paper by von Neumann, "The Problem of Optimal Assignment and a Certain Two-Person Game" (kindly made available to the Commission in advance of its publication in the second volume on the theory of games, A.W .Tucker, ed., Annals of Mathematics series) makes computation methods developed for the solution of games applicable to this class of problems. Beckmann considered a modified problem where transportation costs between assigned locations are taken into account.

One of the purposes of the Commission's studies in transportation and location, in which Koopmans has provided general guidance and stimulation, is to prepare the way for more realistic insight into the efficiency or inefficiency of industry's present geographical distribution and of our metropolitan concentrations of population and production. It is hoped that the efficiency aspects of various methods, modes, and degrees of dispersal of these concentrations, such as may be found desirable for reduced vulnerability in war, may also be better understood through these studies. A discussion by Jack Hirschleifer, of the RAND Corporation, of war damage insurance schemes as an incentive to dispersal, provided perspective in this connection. It is mentioned here for that reason, although it will be mentioned again under its proper classification of problems involving uncertainty.

The methods of "activity analysis," developed in Cowles Commission Monograph 13 and described in two preceding annual reports, throw new light on classical problems of international trade theory. Reiter of Stanford University completed a discussion of an example showing the effect on overall output of barriers to the movements of goods. Francois Morin, a Rotary International Fellow from the Ecole Polytechnique in Paris, France, was led to the same problem through consideration of a technical question in the stowage of goods in transportation under space and weight limitations, and developed the international trade interpretation of this problem with greater validity.

A study of the efficient arrangement of productive activities over time, started by Edmond Malinvaud when visiting the Commission as a Rockefeller Fellow in 1950–1951, was brought to completion after his return to Paris. This study extends to dynamic situations earlier results of Koopmans and Debreu concerning the criteria of efficient allocation of resources in a static economy, and the role of prices in making it possible to reach or maintain efficiency under decentralized allocative decision-making. Of considerable interest for capital and interest theory is the special case of an efficient stationary state, which differs from earlier static models in that the time structure of production processes is explicitly taken into account.

On a more practical level, Franco Modigliani and Franz Hohn of the University of Illinois, have discussed the problem of how best to distribute production over time to meet a given program of delivery dates and quantities, under various assumptions as to storage cost and the dependence of cost of production on the rate of output. Morin indicated simplifications that can be achieved in this problem by treating time as a continuous variable. Time also enters, as a label of two successive states of technology, into Debreu's application of his coefficient of resource utilization to the measurement of technological change. He proposes to represent technological change numerically by the highest proportional saving in all primary inputs which, in a hypothetical static economy, would permit the attainment of this year's standards of living if next year's technology could be substituted for this year's.

Problems of allocative efficiency under certainty as well as under uncertainty are studied from a general classificatory and analytical point of view by Hurwicz. The problem of computing an efficient state of a static economy by iterative methods is linked with the dynamic problem of determining the path whereby an economy with decentralized decision-making may approach efficiency through time. Further reference to this study will be made in the next section.

A Classical Tax-Subsidy Problem: Debreu
An Economic Equilibrium Existence Theorem: Debreu
On the Existence of Solutions to the Equations of General Equilibrium under Conditions of Perfect Competition: Arrow
A Continuous Model of Transportation: Beckmann
Economic Routing of Empty Railroad Freight Cars: Fox
Efficient Transportation in Networks: Beckmann
Road Utilization Under Conditions of Individual Choice: Beckmann and McGuire
Additivity in Linear Models of Production: Reiter
Linear Activity Analysis and International Trade: Morin
Capital Accumulation and Efficient Allocation of Resources: Malinvaud
The Effect of the Inventory Constraint on the Solution of Certain Problems of Production Planning over Time: Modigliani and Hohn
Note on an Inventory Problem Discussed by Modigliani and Hohn: Morin

3. The Pursuit of Given Objectives under Uncertainty

The problem of inventory control in response to sales reports is one of the simplest examples of a problem in decision-making under uncertainty. Two types of uncertainty maybe distinguished here: the case of "complete information," where at least the probability distribution of future demand is known, and the case of "incomplete information," where even that is not known. The work by Arrow, Harris, and Marschak on this problem, described in our Annual Report for 1950–1951, stimulated a more complete and general mathematical study carried out by Aryeh Dvoretzky, J. Kiefer, and Jacob Wolfowitz, of Cornell University on which Dvoretzky (also of the University of Jerusalem) reported in a staff meeting. They treat the inventory problem as a special case of the general problem of how to utilize such influence as one may have on a chain of successively dependent chance events (a "stochastic process") in the outcome of which one has a definite interest. In a report to the staff on conversations with river control engineers in the Tennessee Valley Authority, Koopmans presented the problem of best balance between flood prevention and electricity generation as another control problem in this category.

In taking actions the outcome of which depends on uncertain future events, businessmen must form their best judgments regarding these events. However, since the attempt to forecast or assess uncertainty absorbs attention and effort, it is important in preparing decisions to specify for which events the anticipations really matter. These considerations led Modigliani and Hohn to formalize the concept of the relevance of anticipations about various future events to a given decision problem. In particular, their study of production scheduling over time, referred to above, led them to point out the significance of storage costs and seasonal fluctuations in demand or supply that cut down the length of the period ahead for which anticipations are relevant to present decisions. A similar concern with the cost of preparing and making a decision, and with the cost incurred at successively higher levels in setting up methods and procedures for preparing and making decisions, is found in a discussion of rational decision-making in business contributed by Charles Holt of the Carnegie Institute of Technology.

The problem of best actions in the light of given anticipations is illustrated by Harry Markowitz's discussion of portfolio selection. This is treated as a problem in minimizing variability of return for given expected average return on securities, or conversely.

In this, as in the other problems of decision-making under uncertainty mentioned so far, the analysis proceeds from the assumption of one controlling interest such as the maximization of expected profit of one firm. Actions by representatives of other interests enter in some cases as uncertain events to be predicted (such as future demand), but do not become the object of analysis. The assumption of subordination to one controlling interest is still maintained in Marschak's model of a team of two partners, but each partner has access to a different field of information. The analysis assumes as given: the cost of communication between partners (in time, money, etc.), the joint probability distribution of the two states of (correct) information, and the outcome (profit) resulting from any given pair of decisions by the two partners. The possible decisions are (1) to commit the partnership if not contacted by the other partner, (2) to abstain from commitment if not contacted, (3) to exchange information and commit, and (4) to exchange information and abstain from a commitment. The problem is to find rules of response to information for each partner that maximize the mathematical expectation of the profit.

Marschak, Karl Faxén, a visiting Rockefeller Fellow from Sweden, Beckmann, and Dvoretzky, guided by experimental computation conducted by Daniel Waterman, studied an interesting special case exemplified by an arbitrage firm in which one partner is informed of the buying price and the other of the selling price. It was shown that proceeding from less favorable to more favorable information, the best responses from each partner form the following sequence: communicate (to warn the partner); do nothing; communicate (to get information); commit; communicate (to encourage the partner). Each pair of decisions (one by each partner) will result in a certain profit or loss, as entered in the five different fields on our diagram; where the axes represent the two prices per unit of finished product. The five intervals marked on each axis represent the price ranges at which certain decisions of one partner are called for by the particular rule. Depending on the probability of various pairs of prices and on the cost of communication, some of the five price intervals may disappear. For the case when the two prices are distributed independently and with uniform probability over the same range, the best of all rules that are symmetrical with respect to the two partners were found by Kiefer and O. Orey of Cornell University, in their comments on various Cowles Commission discussion papers. Valuable comments were also received from J. Laderman of the Logistics Branch, Office of Naval Research.

The model just described contains in a highly simplified form one basic element of the theory of organization: the dispersal of information among members of an organization, and the communication procedures between them. Another element, emphasized by Herbert Simon in a Cowles Commission Seminar is the coalition character of organizations: the organization is viable as long as the distinct and individual interests of its members are best served by an agreement to follow the rules of behavior that make up the organization. Both of these elements of organization theory are recognized and elaborated in Hurwicz's analysis of information processing in resource allocation. In particular, the market economy is studied as a decentralized form of organization whereby the flow of information between "participants" (buyers and sellers) takes the form of price offers and quotations and quantities ordered.

A central problem of organization theory is how to set up the rules and incentives in such a way as to obtain "best results" in the sense of the efficiency concept described above. An example is the formulation of tax laws in such a manner as to make profit maximizing behavior of business in the face of uncertainty serve general ends of society most effectively. Beckmann and Marschak extended an earlier study of the latter into the income tax structure that will produce a given revenue with a minimum deterrent effect on risk-bearing investment. Another example is Hirschleifer's discussion, already referred to, of a war damage insurance scheme that carries incentives for the most economical degree and type of dispersal of productive activities to reduce vulnerability to air attack.

Optimal Inventory Decisions: Dvoretzky
Report on a Visit to the Tennessee Valley Authority: Koopmans
On the Relevance of Entrepreneurial Anticipation to Current and Future Activity of the Firm: Modigliani and Hohn
Rational Decision-Making in Business: Holt
Portfolio Selection: Markowitz
On Optimal Communication Rules for Teams: Marschak and Waterman
Organized Decision-Making: Marschak
Note on Marschak's Model of an Arbitrage Firm: Faxén
Note on Organized Decision-Making: Beckmann
Risky Assets and Optimal Tax Policy: Beckmann
War Damage Insurance: Hirschleifer

4. The Study of Actual Economic Behavior

If we ask ourselves what motivates the empirical study of economic behavior, we recognize here the same urge that motivates many other empirical sciences: the scientific curiosity that desires to explore and understand the physical, technological, human, and social environment in which life is lived. Another motivation is shared with many empirical sciences: knowledge of actual behavior is indispensable in assessing and predicting the effectiveness of policies recommended for individual or social improvement. Both motivations can be discerned in the choice of topics and methods of empirical research in economics by the economic profession generally, and at the Commission.

Through its research consultants and by other means, the Commission maintains close contact with programs of empirical work in other academic centers, This section therefore describes not only the empirical work in which the Commission itself is engaged, but also describes studies made elsewhere that have been brought into the discussions in the Commission, or with which contact has been maintained in other ways. The term "empirical work" is here to be interpreted broadly. It includes theoretical studies of the implications of assumptions made for purposes of empirical analysis.

The historical survey of the Commission's research mentioned earlier, describes the work by Lawrence R. Klein on the construction of systems of aggregative behavior equations as an aid in explaining or forecasting business fluctuations and in assessing the effect of stabilizing policies. This work is at present being continued and extended under Klein's direction at the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics of the University of Michigan. Klein presented his program in a discussion at a staff meeting. In another discussion Donald Daly of the Department of Trade and Commerce of the Canadian Government reported on experience with similar systems applied to the Canadian economy with emphasis on the testing of forecasting methods against actual developments. In both cases this work was undertaken with the idea of utilizing additional and improved statistical data, against which to test a wider range of more detailed and refined theories in order to achieve more accurate estimation of behavior parameters. These studies have been based mostly on annual time series, in some cases on quarterly series. Fuller use of quarterly series, such as is made in a pilot study carried out jointly by Klein and Harold Barger of Columbia University (involving at present the estimation of small systems of three equations) will provide additional information. The development of electronic computing devices may make such studies possible on a larger scale.

At the same time, economists are to an increasing extent going beyond aggregative time series in order to obtain data richer in information which permit more powerful tests of hypotheses. They have looked for enrichment of data in the following directions in particular, singly or in combination: (a) disaggregation through the study of individual markets, (b) disaggregation by industrial classes (in the study of production relationships), (c) use of cross section data, often collected by sample surveys and concentrated on particular types of decisions, such as consumers' choice or the formation of anticipations.

The empirical work of the Commission's resident research staff has been concerned mostly with the study of individual markets. The motivation of the choice of markets for study has been not only a desire for better knowledge of these particular markets, but even more a desire to increase our knowledge of economic behavior generally by the thorough study of cases where circumstances for study are favorable. Also, studies of particular markets have been a valuable testing ground for statistical and computational methods of estimating behavior constants.

A study of certain markets with forward trading (corn, other feed grains, wheat, cotton) has been undertaken by H.S. Houthakker, with the assistance of William Dunaway, to clarify the empirical background for current theories of economic dynamics, behavior under uncertainty, and speculation. The principal variables to be explained are the level of stocks and the price spreads among different futures and between futures and cash prices. In the case of feed grains this is supplemented by a more detailed investigation of their demand structure.

Hildreth, in his association with the Agricultural Economics Research Group of the University of Chicago, is conducting a statistical study of supply and demand relationships for livestock products in the United States, assisted by Frank Jarrett. This is a semi-aggregative study in the sense that, although only one group of markets is considered, the demand and supply relations studied connect aggregate quantity and price indices for all livestock products included (ranging from cattle to eggs). The fact that these commodities are competing in demand as well as in production facilitates this aggregative procedure.

Miss Hendrieke Goris of the Netherlands Economic Institute made a progress report on her study of the United States tobacco markets, carried out while spending a fellowship period with the Commission.

The studies of Houthakker and Goris, as well as that of Hildreth and Jarrett were discussed in joint staff meetings with the Agricultural Economics Research Group.

The study of aggregative production relationships expressing balance in the rates of outputs of various industries, initiated, developed, and stimulated by Wassily Leontief of Harvard University, has grown in recent years into a field of large-scale empirical research, variously referred to as input-output analysis or interindustry economics. Ronald Shephard of The RAND Corporation described at a staff meeting his research proposal to study changes over time in input-output coefficients, in response to scale of output (increasing or decreasing returns), age distribution of capital equipment, fluctuations in output, and gradual cumulative factors such as technological change. Arrow and Robert Solow, the latter of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, cooperated with Shephard as RAND consultants in formulating this proposal.

Klein pointed out that if input-output ratios are measured as ratios of money values of interindustry commodity flows in a given year, and if the prices underlying these value aggregates are formed in competitive markets, any observed constancy over time of these input-output ratios is compatible with the existence of production functions permitting substitution among physical inputs originating in different industries, and joint production of commodities produced by one industry. Koopmans finished an expository paper discussing results reached by various authors in Cowles Commission Monograph 13 regarding the constancy of relative prices of commodities under shifts in demand, if each commodity is produced separately in one industry, while only one scarce primary factor (e.g., labor) limits the rates of output attained by all industries.

The Commission benefited from the presentations of several pieces of research in the theory and econometrics of consumption, carried out by Michael Farrell and Houthakker at the Department of Applied Economics of the University of Cambridge, by William Hamburger as a thesis project at the University of Chicago, and by Klein at the Survey Research Center of the University of Michigan. Many of these studies made or envisaged use of data obtained from consumer surveys or budget studies.

Modigliani reported empirical findings of the research project on the role of expectations in business fluctuations, directed by him at the Bureau of Business Economics of the University of Illinois (in cooperation with the Public Opinion Research Center of the University of Chicago). This project, based on the evaluation of survey data as well as on the study of time series of recorded forecasts, ma y be expected to provide a more realistic framework for theories relating economic behavior to anticipations. The general purpose of most of the studies described in Section 4 is to provide a stronger empirical basis for the explanation of cyclical fluctuations. In a research memorandum of the Economic Institute of the University of Oslo, Trygve Haavelmo has indicated the need for econometric study of problems of long-range development and of the persistent and widening differences in economic level among different areas of the world. He has constructed and compared simple models discussing economic development in terms of a few aggregative variables such as population, production, accumulated capital, level of education and know-how, plus random disturbances. Even at this level of simplification, it is found that with the same structure of behavior as regards productive effort, capital accumulation, and human reproduction, small differences in "initial conditions" may over time lead to large discrepancies in economic level.

A New Econometric Model for the United States: Klein
The Canadian Econometric Model in Comparison with Carl Christ's Findings: Daly
A Proposed Inquiry into Some Markets with Forward Trading: Houthakker
A Statistical Study of Livestock Production and Marketing: Hildreth and Jarrett
An Investigation into Price-Determining Factors in American Leaf Tobacco Markets: Goris
An Econometric Model for the Study of Changes in Input-Output Coefficients: Shephard
The Interpretation of Professor Leontief's System: Klein
Maximization and Substitution in Linear Models of Production: Koopmans
Irreversible Demand Functions: Farrell
The Shape of Engel Curves: Houthakker
Analysis of Quality Variations in Consumption: Houthakker
The Free Demand for Rationed Foodstuffs in Britain: Houthakker
Consumption and Wealth: Hamburger
Evaluation of Consumer's Expenditures Survey Data: Klein
Relevance of Entrepreneurial Anticipations: Modigliani
Contribution to the Theory of Economic Evolution: Haavelmo

5. Concepts and Tools of Research

The formation of concepts and the development of research tools are an integral part of the research of the Commission. The report on progress during the year will be arranged under the categories "concept formation," statistical methods," and "mathematical tools," although no sharp boundaries separate these categories.

Simon has continued and extended his examination of the concept of causality. Besides the discussion of causal hierarchy of variables in a system of linear algebraic equations, described in our previous report, he has developed the notion of a causal ordering of propositions, defined in terms of the concepts of formal logic. While applicable to all empirical sciences, this analysis arose in connection with the study of production control systems.

Several guest speakers in staff meetings or seminars contributed to problems of concept formation. Coombs and Thrall, both of the University of Michigan, discussed ramifications of the concept of measurement ranging from mere nominal classification of objects to complete numerical measurement, and including such intermediate forms as partial ordering and complete but ordinal measurement. Menger discussed the introduction of probability into ordering relations. This will facilitate interpretation of experiments on the measurement of preferences in which the responses of individuals exhibit an element of randomness.

Those working in the application of statistical methods to econometric model construction are more and more concerned with the fact that the assumptions which specify the model are always approximations, consciously adopted to make statistical procedures applicable, but not believed to be strictly valid. On the other hand, the statistical procedures of estimation, assessment of accuracy of estimates, and testing of hypotheses are strictly valid only if the models are. We are thus faced with the problem of so-called "specification error."

Two ways of dealing with this problem are being explored and will no doubt be pursued further in the future. One method is to study the performance of inference processes derived to fit one particular model if the observations are generated by some other model belonging to a wider class of models. A conceptual basis for this approach to the specification problem is laid in Hurwicz's study of, the consequences of incorrect specification. Studies by Stephen. Allen and Jean Bronfenbrenner of particular cases of specification error have been mentioned in previous reports, and will be included in the forthcoming Cowles Commission Monograph 14, Studies in Econometric Method. In the same category is John Gurland's study of the effects of serial correlation in the disturbances in behavior equations, and of incorrect specification of the stochastic process that generates these disturbances. The importance of a particular type of "specification error," that of incorrectly treating certain variables as exogenous, was emphasized at the Boston meeting of the Econometric Society by Guy Orcutt of Harvard University in a paper of which William Hood was a discussant. Subsequently, Koopmans contributed a written discussion of Orcutt's paper to a panel discussion, to be printed with that paper in the Review of Economics and Statistics.

Another approach is the development of more flexible statistical inference procedures, which are perhaps less efficient or powerful for a narrowly specified model, but which are valid with determinable accuracy within a wider range of assumptions. Stimulated by earlier work of Wald in this direction, Hildreth has studied methods of estimating coefficients of simultaneous equation systems by means of suitably chosen subsets of the observations.

At the same time, the development and presentation of statistical methods for given parametrically defined models has been continued. Koopmans and Hood completed an expository presentation (for Monograph 14) of the application of the maximum-likelihood method of estimation to linear equation systems with normally distributed disturbances. They considered various cases with regard to the utilization or disregard of a priori knowledge as to which variables occur in each equation. T.W. Anderson contributed a suggestion toward computationally' economical methods for utilizing this type of a priori knowledge. Allen discussed methods for the simultaneous utilization of cross-section and time-series data.

Two guest speakers, G.S. Watson, of the University of Australia, and Ulf Grenander, on leave from the University of Stockholm while associated with the Committee on Statistics of the University of Chicago, discussed the estimation of regression coefficients in cases where the disturbances are serially correlated. This and similar problems involving intertemporal dependence of observations provided the motivation for Gurland's research into the distribution of quadratic forms in random variables, and the ratios of such forms.

Erling Sverdrup's study of statistical decision problems and their solution by the minimax principle, mentioned in the Annual Report for 1949–1950, was brought to completion after his return to the University of Oslo. This study includes a discussion of prediction problems as a special class of statistical decision problems.

Progress was made in several directions toward generalization and simplification in making available mathematical tools to economists. In studies of the interaction of various parts of the economy, frequent use is made of matrices of which all elements are positive or zero. Herstein located and translated a paper by Helmut Wielandt of the University of Mainz giving a concise treatment of the properties of such matrices. Jointly with Debreu he introduced further clarity and simplification by the use of a "fixed-point theorem" and gave a unified treatment of matrix properties scattered through the literature. Additional properties were derived and applied by John Chipman of Harvard University, who participated in research discussions of the Commission while a fellow of the Department of Economics of the University of Chicago. Debreu and Marschak cooperated in developing a proof of the central theorem relating to two-person zero-sum games which appeals to geometrical intuition. A computation method for the solution of such games was presented by Howard Raiffa of the University of Michigan.

The problem of maximization of a function (such as utility or profits) under constraints (of budget or technology) is basic to much of economic theory. If differentiability is assumed, this problem reduces to that of finding a maximum of a quadratic function under linear restrictions. Conditions for such a maximum are well known to economists but satisfactory proofs are hard to find. Debreu provided a concise and complete proof, which was published in Econometrica. Clarification of mathematical tools resulted also from Debreu's work on the existence of a saddle point and of an equilibrium point, referred to in Section 2 above.

The problems of location theory associated with indivisibilities, referred to in Section 2, have led to a renewed interest in the study of permutations and functions of permutations. A somewhat related problem — to define and find the combinatorial rank of a matrix — was discussed by Simon in connection with his work on causal hierarchy of variables.

Besides giving mathematical advice to the group on a variety of problems, Herstein is writing an exposition, from the mathematician's view point, of mathematical methods and tools used or of use in economics. Waterman has supplied direction to the computation staff of the Commission.

On the Definition of the Causal Relation: Simon
Probabilistic Theory of Relations: Menger
On the Consequences of Incorrect Specification: Hurwicz
Autocorrelation of the Disturbances in Regression: Gurland
Comments on Orcutt's Paper 'Toward the Partial Redirection of Econometrics': Koopmans
Structural Estimates From Means of Subsets of Observations: Hildreth
The Estimation of Simultaneous Linear Economic Relations: Koopmans and Hood
A Suggested Application of the Limited-Information Maximum-Likelihood Method of Estimation: Anderson
Estimations of a Single Equation in an Incomplete System of Stochastic Equations with Cross-Section Time Series Data: Allen
Serial Correlation in Regression Analysis: Watson
On the Estimation of Regression Coefficients in the Case of an Autocorrelated Residual: Grenander
Distribution of Quadratic Forms and Ratios of Quadratic Forms:* Gurland
Weight Functions and Mimimax Procedures in the Theory of Statistical Inference:* Sverdrup
Indecomposable, Nonnegative Matrices: Wielandt
Positive and Nonnegative Matrices: Herstein
Nonnegative Square Matrices: Debreu and Herstein
An Algorithm for the Determination of all Solutions of a Two-Person Zero-Sum Game: Raiffa
Definite and Semidefinite Quadratic Forms: Debreu
A Social Equilibrium Existence Theorem: Debreu
Some Theorems on the Combinatorial Ranks of Matrices: Simon
Mathematical Methods and Tools in Economics: Herstein

Office, Library, and Computation Laboratory

Supporting Staff (1951–1952)

Administration
    Helen Docekal, Administrative Secretary
    Marilyn Holmes King,* Dolores Mosher, Financial Secretary

General Office
    Miye Rata, Office Supervisor
    Lorraine Kirk,* Lucette Miller,* Maureen Murphy, Iris Ross, Secretaries
    Betty Livingston, Distrihuting and Technical Typing

Editorial
    Ruth Skinner, Editorial Secretary
    Charlece Harsten Saunders,* June Novick,* Jane Diller, Assistant Editorial Secretary
    Jane Novick, Editorial Consultant

Library
    J. Myron Jacobstein, Librarian

Computation Laboratory
    Francis Bobkoski, Donald Bratton, Billy Foster,
    Totaro Miyashita, Michael Morely, Jean Smolak,*
    Vera Stepan Pless,* Jagna Zahl, Hyman Zell,* Mathematical Technicians

*Staff departures prior to June 30, 1952.

The library, offices, and computation laboratory are located in the Social Science Building on the University of Chicago quadrangles, A staff of approximately nine full-time and a, varying number of part-time persons provides a variety of supporting services for the research staff, resident guests, and advanced students associated with the Cowles Commission, Several of the staff also perform related functions for the Econometric Society which shares the offices of the Commission.

Library

The library of the Cowles Commission is maintained primarily to assist in the research carried on by the Commission. As this research transcends the boundaries of conventional fields of inquiry, it has been advantageous to have the diverse subjects which are relevant to the studies of the Commission brought together and organized in one collection. The collection covers the fields of quantitative economics, economic theory, statistics, mathematics, descriptive data, and bibliography. To a lesser extent, it also has material on psychology, sociology, theory of communication and organization, and related topics, In view of the library's close proximity to the University of Chicago libraries, particular emphasis has been placed on journals, pamphlets, reprints, documents, and other materials that are not available through usual library sources.

During the past year the library has been recatalogued and reclassified according to the rules of the American Library Association and the Library of Congress. This integrates the various materials in the Cowles Commission collection under one system and provides conformity with the arrangement of the University of Chicago libraries. Additions to the library during 1951–52. total 287 books, 419 pamphlets, and 118 bound volumes of journals. The collection consists of 3,015 books, 5,966 pamphlets, and 862 bound journal volumes. Currently 141 journals are being received from 19 different countries. Many reprints of articles of interest are received from journals that primarily specialize in subjects outside the field of the Commission, permitting the library to have in its collection nearly all articles that touch on or relate to its research. The library also contains the collection of the late Professor Henry Schultz, consisting of 950 books and 1,750 pamphlets; a particularly valuable addition to the library since many of the books and articles are out of print and unavailable elsewhere in Chicago.

The library is open to members of the Department of Economics as well as to advanced students by arrangement.

Computation Laboratory

The computation laboratory employs the equivalent of four full-time computers whose work is confined for the most part to standard desk calculators. Most of the computers employed by the Commission have training in mathematics or statistics and for this reason can follow standardized outlines for "maximum-likelihood" and "least-squares" estimation. Daniel Waterman, research associate, directs the activities of the laboratory.

The work of the laboratory is, however, much more diverse than that of the usual statistical computing group. In the last year it has been engaged in such work as the computation of sets of orthogonal polynomials, testing the convergence of various series representations of distribution functions, the evaluation and maximization of certain definite integrals, and estimation of behavior equations.

Computation tasks expected during the next year will include the inversion of high-order matrices, which cannot be performed economically on desk calculators. Provision is therefore being made for the use of digital electronic computers belonging to outside agencies. The availability of such machines will make it possible to utilize complex estimating techniques which are not feasible at this time.

The Econometric Society

The principal activities of the Econometric Society, an international society for the advancement of economic theory in its relation to statistics and mathematics, consist of the publication of a journal, Econometrica, and the arrangement of scientific meetings in various parts of the world. In these and other activities in which the Econometric Society has engaged, it has enjoyed the advantages of a close association with the Cowles Commission through sharing office facilities and through the participation of members of the Commission's staff; an association which was the outgrowth of early ties and common sympathies set forth in detail in the "History of the Cowles Commission" which is included in this report.

The Fellows represent the highest authority of the Society. They are 94 in number, including residents of 18 different countries. In 1951 a revision of the rules for election of new Fellows was put into effect which facilitates consideration of the qualifications of candidates. Six new Fellows were elected in the current year: T. Barna, G. Darmois, H.S. Houthakker, J.J. Polak, O. ReiersØl, and J. Tobin.

The Fellows elected the following members of the Society to the Council for 1952: C. Bresciani-Turroni of Italy, J. Tinbergen of the Netherlands, and T.C. Koopmans and Wassily Leontief of the United States. The Council includes in addition the officers of the Society and Colin Clark, Australia; R.G.D. Allen and J.R. Hicks, England; Ragnar Frisch, Norway; Herman O.A. Wold, Sweden; and Griffith C. Evans and Simon Kuznets, United States.

The officers of the Society in 1951 were R.G.D. Allen, London School of Economics, president; Paul A. Samuelson, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, vice-president; and two members of the Commission, William B. Simpson and Alfred Cowles, as secretary and treasurer, respectively. The Council elected René Roy of the Institut de Statistique de l'Université de Paris to be vice-president in 1952, Samuelson was elected president, and Simpson and Cowles were re-elected to their respective offices. In May, Simpson submitted to the Council his resignation as secretary of the Society to become effective at the end of the fiscal year, upon completion of four years in office.

A total of 243 individuals were elected to membership during the fiscal year ending September 30, 1952. This brought membership in the Society to 1741, double the membership four years earlier. The number of countries represented increased to 64. Although the number of members outside Europe and North America continues to be small, the highest rates of growth in membership strength are found respectively in Central and South America, Asia, Africa, and Australasia and Oceania. Since 1949 a geographical index of members and subscribers has been published in the October issue of Econometrica.

A policy of encouraging meetings of the Econometric Society in additional parts of the world and of seeking the appointment of broadly representative program committees wherever possible has been followed in recent years. In 1951, for example, approximately 50 members participated in planning and arranging the seven meetings of the Society. Papers and formal discussions totaling 171 in number were presented at its sessions. Many more members participated through attendance, some serving as session chairmen or offering informal discussion. Other members had access to the proceedings through abstracts published in Econometrica.

In August, 1951, the West Coast regional meeting of the Econometric Society was held at the RAND Corporation in Santa Monica in conjunction with the Southern California Economic Association. In 1952 it was held at the University of Oregon in Eugene, June 19–21, in conjunction with the American Mathematical Society, Biometric Society, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Mathematical Association of America.

The American summer meeting of the Econometric Society was held at the University of Minnesota in September, 1951, in conjunction with the meetings of the American Mathematical Society, Mathematical Association of America, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and Section A of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. This year the joint summer meeting with the mathematical groups was held at Michigan State College in East Lansing, September 2–5.

The American winter meeting of the Society is usually held at the same time and place as the meetings of the American Economic Association, American Statistical Association, Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and other components of the Allied Social Science Associations, and some joint sessions are arranged. This was held in Boston in 1951. The 1952. meeting with the social science organizations will be held in Chicago, December 27–29. The European meeting of the Econometric Society was held at Louvain, Belgium, in 1951, and this year at Cambridge, England, August 13–15.

The Japanese meeting of the Econometric Society was held at the Tokyo University of Commerce, in 1951. This year the meeting is scheduled for November 1–3 at Nagoya University as a joint meeting with the Society of Theoretical Economics. Arrangements were concluded with the Japanese Science Council for Dr. Takuma Yasui to attend the year-end professional meetings in the United States as the official delegate of the Japanese branch of the Society.

In December, 1951, joint sessions of the Society were held in New Delhi with the International Statistical Institute and in Patna in conjunction with the Indian Economic Conference. Participation is now being planned in the All-India Economic Conference to be held at Travancore University in Trivandrum, December 26–30, and in a meeting of the statistical section of the Indian Science Congress to be held at Lucknow, January 2–8,1953.

In April, 1952, a questionnaire was sent to all members of the Econometric Society in Mexico, Central and South America, .and adjoining Caribbean areas to determine the extent of interest in the institution of regular meetings of the Society in the Latin American countries. On the basis of the response which was received, meetings in Mexico City, Mexico; Rio de Janeiro, Brazil; and Santiago, Chile, are under consideration for 1953.

A report on the present status of econometric teaching at the university level was prepared for the Econometric Society by Gerhard Tintner in early 1952. Conducted under provisions of a contract between the Society and UNESCO, the study forms part of UNESCO's general inquiry into teaching in the social sciences and will be published in that connection. Because of the short interval in which the report was to be prepared, major reliance was placed Upon questionnaires sent members and institutions teaching econometrics in eight countries specified by UNESCO. The survey included Egypt, France, India, Mexico, Poland, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States.

The Econometric Society is Cooperating informally with the Training Center for Economic and Financial Statistics which is being established in Santiago, Chile, by the Inter American Statistical Institute and Pan American Union as part of the technical assistance program of the United Nations. A consultative panel has been appointed by the Society which will be available on a continuing basis to assist in designing a set of courses appropriate to the objectives of the Center's program. No formal connection will exist, however, between the Society and the Center or its Sponsoring agencies. Calvert L. Dedrick, Lester S. Kellogg, William G. Madow, and Gerhard Tintner will serve on the panel.

During the year the Econometric Society continued its affiliations with the International Statistical Institute, the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the division of mathematics of the National Research Council, and the Allied Social Science Associations. It also maintained its informal contacts with the International Economic Association. The Society is on the consultative register of the Economic and Social Council of the United Nations and steps have been taken to complete a consultative relationship with UNESCO. The Econometric Society continued to be represented on an intersociety committee studying the mathematical training appropriate for social scientists.

On recommendation of the secretary, the Council approved the creation of an institutional (nonvoting) membership status. Academic or nonacademic institutions subscribing a specified amount or more in support of the activities of the Society will receive two copies of each publication of the Society and may designate representatives to attend its meetings. A committee will report to the Council within two years as to the experience gained with institutional memberships and as to any addition to the constitution of the Society as may then seem desirable.

During 1951, Volume 19 of Econometrica was published, consisting of four quarterly issues totaling 573 pages. The twentieth year volume being published in 1952 will include 806 pages. This brings the journal to double the size it had prior to 1949. The journal is now being mailed to over 2700 individuals and libraries in 72 different countries. A 160-page supplement edited by Kirk Fox is in preparation containing a twenty-year author index and analytical subject guide to Econometrica. The Cowles Commission gave support to the indexing project in the form of salaries paid the editor of the index and his assistants.

Arrangements were made for the publication of a Japanese translation of Trygve Haavelmo's "The Probability Approach in Econometrics," Econometrica, Vol. 12, Supplement, July, 1944, which is in preparation by Isamu Yamada of Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo. Royalties from the sale of the edition will be used for the purchase of econometric materials for presentation to libraries in Japan.

Ragnar Frisch continued as editor of Econometrica and William B. Simpson as co-editor. The following persons were appointed as associate editors during the year to assist in arranging the refereeing of articles: Nicholas Georgescu-Roegen, Vanderbilt University; Edmond C. Malinvaud, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques; and J.R. Stone, Cambridge University. John R. Hicks, Oxford University, participated until 1952. Other associate editors include Harold T. Davis, Northwestern University; Kenneth O. May, Carleton College; J. Tinbergen, Netherlands School of Economics; Gerhard Tintner, Iowa State College; James Tobin, Yale University; and Herman O.A. Wold, University of Uppsala.

Econometrica began carrying a book review section, edited by Gerhard Tintner, starting with the July, 1951, issue. The journal arranged translations of articles underlying the development of econometrics to make these contributions generally accessible. During the year Mrs. Ruth Skinner succeeded Mrs. Jane Novick as editorial secretary. Mrs. Jane Diller was appointed assistant editorial secretary in June.

Other activities of the Society during the year included the establishment of an emeritus membership status, completion of a project on collation of definitions of econometrics and further work on the preparation of encyclopedia and dictionary entries, and efforts directed toward securing support for an international survey of facilities related to the quantitative approach to economics. The desirability was also explored of arranging for a publication channel for occasional contributions not suitable for either book or journal publication.

Miss Helen Docekal continued as administrative secretary during the year. Mrs. Dolores Mosher succeeded Mrs. Marilyn Holmes King as financial secretary in June, 1952. The following individuals served as financial agents of the Society in their respective countries: R.G.D. Allen, England; Francesco Brambilla, Italy; Jacques Dumontier, France; J.C. du Plessis, Union of South America; Ragnar Frisch, Norway; N.S.R. Sastry, India; J. Tinbergen, The Netherlands; and Isamu Yamada, Japan.

BIOGRAPHIES of Staff, Fellows, and Guests, 1932–1952

Names of guests are marked by an asterisk (*)

STEPHEN G. ALLEN (M.A. in economics, University of Chicago, 1950) was a research assistant at the Cowles Commission in 1949. Prior to coming to the University of Chicago in 1946, he studied at the University of Texas, 1941–44, and served in the U.S. Naval Reserve, 1944–46. In 1950 he became a research assistant in the Department of Statistics at Stanford University, and was made a research associate in the Applied Mathematics and Statistics Laboratory in the following year. While at Stanford, Allen undertook further work toward a Ph.D. degree in statistics and was elected to Sigmi Xi. Since 1951, he has been a research consultant of the U.S. Treasury Department, on which behalf he is currently participating in an econometric study of the petroleum industry. He became a research consultant of the Cowles Commission in December 1950, and this autumn will rejoin the staff to conclude work on a study of the linseed oil industry. In the spring of 1953 he will join the faculty of the School of Business Administration of the University of Minnesota. A contribution by Allen is included in Studies in Econometric Method (forthcoming). 
     See Cowles publications by Stephen G. Allen

THEODORE W. ANDERSON (B.S., Northwestern University, 1939; M.A., 1942 and Ph.D., 1945, Princeton University) has been with the Commission as a research associate, November 1945 through June 1947, and as a research consultant since that time. He is currently an associate professor of mathematical statistics at Columbia University. Earlier he was an instructor at Princeton University, 1941–43, and a research mathematician in the Statistical Research Group, Princeton, 1943–45. In 1947, he took leave of absence from his position as assistant professor of mathematical statistics at Columbia to do research work as a Guggenheim Fellow at the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, University of Stockholm, September 1947 through April 1948, and at the Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, April–June 1948. He has served as a consultant of the Bureau of Applied Social Research since 1947 and in 1951 was appointed to the Board of Governors of that organization. He is a consultant of the RAND Corporation. Anderson has served as editor of the Annals of Mathematical Statistics since 1951, is a member of the executive committee and council of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, and is a representative of the Institute on an intersociety committee to study the mathematical training appropriate for social scientists. He was elected a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics in 1947, of the American Statistical Association in 1949, and of the Econometric Society in 1950. His articles have appeared in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Econometrica, Journal of American Statistical Association, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Proceedings of the International Statistical Conferences, Proceedings of the Second Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Psychometrika, Skandinavirk Aktuarietidskrift, and Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, 1950. 
     See Cowles publications by Theodore W. Anderson

WILLIAM H. ANDREWS (B.S., 1933 and A.M., 1937, Indiana University; Ph.D. in economics, University of Chicago, 1949) was a research associate of the Cowles Commission from July 1943 to March, 1944. He then became an ensign in the U.S. Naval Reserve. Andrews was an instructor in economics at Purdue University, 1937–41, a fellow at the University of Chicago, 1942–43, and a research associate of the Department of Economics, 1943–44. At the present time he is assistant professor of economics at Indiana University and is currently doing research in the fields of taxation and national income. An article by Andrews has appeared in Econometrica.
     See Cowles publications by William H. Andrews

KENNETH J. ARROW (B.S., College of the City of New York, 1940; M.A., 1941 and Ph.D., 1950, Columbia University) served in the Weather Division of the Army Air Force, 1941–46. He was an instructor in economics at College of the City of New York, summer session, 1946; and an assistant in statistics, School of Business, Columbia University, in the fall of 1946. He joined the Cowles Commission as a research associate in April, 1947, and was appointed assistant professor in the Department of Economics, the University of Chicago, October, 1948. In addition to regular teaching and research duties, he helped in the editing of the Journal of Political Economy and did consultative work during the winter of 1948 with the U.S. Bureau of the Budget and for a project of the RAND Corporation. Arrow became a research consultant of the Commission upon accepting an appointment at Stanford University in July 1949, where he is now associate professor of economics and statistics. He was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 1951. He is an editorial collaborator of the Journal of the American Statistical Association. His papers have appeared in the American Economic Review, Econometrica, George Washington University Logistics Papers, Journal of Meteorology, Journal of Political Economy, and Mathematical Reviews. Contributions by Arrow have appeared in Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, 1951; The Policy Sciences, 1951; and Proceedings of the Second Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, 1951. His book, Social Choice and Individual Values, was published in 1951.
     See Cowles publications by Kenneth J. Arrow

SELMA SCHWEITZER ARROW* was appointed a Sarah Frances Hutchinson Cowles Fellow in 1946. The fellowship was awarded to students preparing for advanced degrees in the fields of the social sciences and statistics, with preference to students who would be working on quantitative economics or mathematical statistics.

EARL F. BEACH*, professor of commerce and chairman of the Department of Economics, McGill University, participated in the research discussions of the Commission and of the Committee on Statistics of the University of Chicago during the academic year, 1949–50.

MARTIN J. BECKMANN (Vordiplom in mathematics, University of Goettingen, 1947; Diplom in economics 1949 and Dr. ver. pol., 1950, University of Freiburg) was an assistant of L. Miksch at the University of Freiburg in 1950 prior to becoming a postdoctoral fellow in political economy at the University of Chicago, 1950–51. Beckmann became a research associate with the Cowles Commission, July 1951. Currently he is working on location and transportation efficiency and the best utilization of roads. He has published in American Economic Review, Econometrica, and Weltwirtshaftliches Archiv.
     See Cowles publications by Martin J. Beckmann

HERMAN G. BIERI*, who received his doctorate from the University of Bern, Switzerland, came to the Commission under a fellowship from the Rockefeller Foundation. His interest while at the Commission centered around mathematical methods in economics with special application to welfare economics. An article is to be published in Ammonn's Festschrift and in the Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik which is a fruit of the visit at the Commission.

PETTER JAKOB BJERVE*, while research fellow of the University of Oslo and chief of the national economic planning unit in the Norwegian Ministry of Trade, was with the Commission from September, 1948, to April 1949, as a Rockefeller Fellow. He returned to Oslo to become director of the Norwegian Central Bureau of Statistics. His research interests include the theory of economic planning.

EDWARD BOORSTEIN (B.S., College of the City of New York, 1936; M.A. Columbia University, 1940) joined the staff in the autumn of 1946 as a research associate with the rank of instructor in the study of the economics of atomic energy. Boorstein was economic assistant to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, 1940–41; economist, War Production Board, 1941–43; and economist, Civilian Production Administration, 1946. He continued his work with the Commission until December 1947, at which time he went to Berlin, Germany, to work as an economist-statistician with the U.S. Army Occupation Forces. Boorstein contributed to Economic Aspects of Atomic Power, 1950.

GEORGE H. BORTS* was in residence at the Commission as a fellow of the Social Science Research Council in 1949–50, and continued as a guest of the Commission until the late summer of 1950, at which time he became assistant professor of economics at Brown University. A summary of the results of his research while at the Commission was published as an article in Econometrica.
     See Cowles publications by George H. Borts

JEAN ANDRUS BRONFENBRENNER (B.A. in economics, University of Chicago, 1939; M.A. in mathematics, University of Colorado, 1945; M.A. in economics, University of Chicago, 1950) became a research assistant with the Cowles Commission in July 1948. She was a teaching assistant in mathematics at the University of Colorado, 1943–44; instructor in mathematics at the University of Arizona, 1945–46; and a teaching assistant in mathematics and statistics at the University of Wisconsin, 1947–48. Mrs. Bronfenbrenner continued as a research assistant of the Cowles Commission until October 1949, at which time she joined the faculty of the University of Illinois as research associate and assistant professor of economics. In November 1951, she accepted a position with the Office of Business Economics, Department of Commerce. She has had papers published in Econometrica, National Tax Journal, and Survey of Current Business. A contribution by her appears in Studies in Econometric Method (forthcoming).

KARL BRUNNER* (Ph.D., University of Zurich) was a guest of the Commission under a grant from the Rockefeller Foundation throughout most of the period from January 1950 through June 1951. He is now on the economics faculty at the University of California at Los Angeles, where he is currently working on a research project on the behavior of the financial sector. Brunner was a temporary consultant to the Economic Commission for Europe, an economic adviser to the Swiss Watch Chamber of Commerce, and a research associate at the Swiss Institute for Research in International Economics at the Handelschochschule, St. Gallen. Articles published by him have appeared in Econometrica and Kyklos. In 1944 the following book was published in Zurich: Studies in the Theory of International Trade.
     See Cowles publications by Karl Brunner

EDWARD N. CHAPMAN (B.A., Yale University, 1917; M.D., Harvard University, 1911) was a research associate of the Cowles Commission from 1936 to 1941. For several years prior to that time he had devoted himself to economic research. Chapman is at present director of the Division of Tuberculosis Assistance for the Colorado Department of Public Welfare.

HERMAN CHERNOFF (B.A., College of the City of New York, 1943; Sc. M., 1945 and Ph.D. in applied mathematics, 1948, Brown University) became a research assistant with the Cowles Commission in June 1947. In 1946–47 he was a National Research Council Predoctoral Fellow. In the spring of 1948 he became a research associate of the Cowles Commission and supervised the computational work of the Commission. In the winter of 1948 he taught mathematical statistics at the Illinois Institute of Technology. He became an assistant professor of mathematics and statistics at the University of Illinois in 1949 and was made an associate professor of mathematics in 1951. He is now an associate professor in the Department of Statistics at Stanford University. Chernoff was appointed a research consultant of the Commission in October 1951. His articles have been published in the American Journal of Mathematics, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, and Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society. Contributions by Chernoff appear in Studies in Econometric Method (forthcoming).
     See Cowles publications by Herman Chernoff

JOHN CHIPMAN (B.A., and M.A., McGill University; Ph.D., Johns Hopkins University) was a guest of the Cowles Commission, 1950–51, while holding a postdoctoral fellowship in the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago. Since 1951 he has been an assistant professor of economics at Harvard University. Chipman was elected to Phi Beta Kappa at Johns Hopkins University. He is the author of The Theory of Inter-Sectoral Money Flows and Income Formation, 1951, and has published articles in the Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, Econometrica, Economia Internationale, and Economic Journal.
     See Cowles publications by John Chipman

CARL F. CHRIST (B.S. in physics, 1943 and Ph.D. in economics, 1950, University of Chicago) was elected to Phi Beta Kappa in 1943. He was a junior physicist in the Manhattan Project, 1943–45, and an instructor in physics, Princeton University, 1945–46. In 1947 he received the Harper fellowship in economics at the University of Chicago. During his tenure as a Social Science Research Council Fellow, 1948–50, he participated as a member of the Commission's staff, becoming a research associate in September 1949. The following year he became an assistant professor of political economy at the Johns Hopkins University. At that time he was appointed a research consultant of the Commission in connection with work he is doing with Marschak on an introduction to econometrics for a monograph. His current research interests includes a critical evaluation of input-output analysis. Papers and reviews written by Christ have been published in American Economic Review, Conference on Business Cycles, and Journal of Political Economy.
     See Cowles publications by Carl F. Christ

GERSHON COOPER (A.B., University of Chicago, 1942.) assisted Haavelmo in work on agricultural models for a joint project of the Agricultural Economics Research Group and the Cowles Commission. He began this work in December 1946, on a part-time basis. During the spring quarter of 1947 he participated in leadership of a university seminar on Agricultural Demand Analysis. Cooper was a research associate of the Commission, 1947–48. More recently he has been a staff member of the RAND Corporation. Articles of his have been published in the Journal of Farm Economics and Quarterly Journal of Economics.
     See Cowles publications by Gershon Cooper

ALFRED COWLES (B.A., Yale University, 1913) was the founder of the Cowles Commission and has been its president since the beginning. For ten years prior to its foundation he maintained a private organization for statistical research on problems of investment and finance. He is a Fellow of the American Association for Advancement of Science and the Econometric Society (treasurer); trustee of the Chicago Historical Society, Colorado College, and Illinois Children's Home & Aid Society (treasurer); a director of Chicago Maternity Center, Home for Destitute Crippled Children, Passavant Memorial Hospital (treasurer), and Tribune Company and affiliated corporations. He is the author of Common Stock Indexes, 1939 and contributed to Econometrica and Journal of American Statistical Association.
     See Cowles publications by Alfred Cowles

FORREST DANSON (A.B., Colorado College, 1929) joined the staff of the Cowles Commission as a research associate at its beginning in 1932 and remained with the Commission until March, 1943. He made various studies of common-stock prices and took part in the fieldwork of the study of price control. In 1943 he took a statistical position in the Army Air Force Materiel Command at Wright Field, Dayton, Ohio. He is now chief, Budget Section, Plans and Programs Office and Directorate, Procurement and Industrial Planning, Air Materiel Command, U.S. Air Force.

HAROLD T. DAVIS (A.B., 1915 and Ll.D., 1949, Colorado College; A.M., Harvard University, 1919; Ph.D., University of Wisconsin, 1926) has been associated with the Cowles Commission since its beginning, spending several months each year in the Commission's laboratory while it was at Colorado Springs and serving as a consultant throughout the balance of the time. From February to August 1937, he was acting research director. He has been professor of mathematics at Indiana University, 1923–37, and at Northwestern University since 1937, becoming full professor and chairman of the Department of Mathematics in 1942. Davis is a Fellow of the Econometric Society. He is an associate editor of Econometrica, and has served in the same capacity for Isis and the Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society. During the past year he continued studies in the field of political statistics and has submitted several books for publication. Numerous papers, abstracts, and reviews have been published in American Mathematical Monthly, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Mathematical Tables and Other Aids to Computation, National Mathematics Magazine, School Science and Mathematics, and Science. He is the author of the following books: The Volterra Integral Equation, 1930; Philosophy and Modern Science, 1931; Tables of the Higher Mathematical Functions, 1933, Vol. II, 1935; Elements of Statistics (with F. C. Nelson), 1935; General Mathematics, 1935; Theory of Linear Operators, 1936; College Algebra, 1940; Theory of Econometrics, 1941; Mathematical Monograph, 1941; The Analysis of Economic Time Series, 1941; Political Statistics, 1948; Essays in History of Mathematics, 1948; Differential Equations and Mathematical Physics, 1949; Quantitative Aspects of the Action of Carcinogenic Substances, 1951; and Quantitative Aspects of the Carcinogenic Radiations, 1952.

JOEL DEAN (A.B., Pomona College, 1929; M.B.A., Harvard University, 1929; Ph.D., University of Chicago, 1936) joined the Cowles Commission staff as a research associate in September 1939. He was on the staff of the International Business Machines Corporation, 1930–32; assistant professor of economics, Indiana University, 1934–37; consulting economist, McKinsey, Wellington and Co., 1937–38; executive secretary of the Conference on Price Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1938–39; and assistant professor of statistics and marketing, the School of Business, and director of the Institute of Statistics, the University of Chicago, 1939. In 1941 he went on leave of absence to become a price executive in the Office of Price Administration, where he later became director of fuel rationing. He was associated with McKinsey and Co. as a management consultant, 1944–46. In 1944 he was a visiting professor at the School of Business, Columbia University and in 1945 resigned from the Commission to accept a position as professor of business economics there. At present he is a partner in Joel Dean Associates, economic and management consultants; a director of the American Marketing Association; a member of the planning council of the American Management Association; a director of American Hard Rubber Co.; and trustee of the Bureau of University Travel. Dean is on the editorial board of the Journal of Marketing and is an associate editor of the Journal of Industrial Economics. His current research is on managerial economics. Articles by him have appeared in Accounting Review, American Economic Review, Australian Accountant, Harvard Business Review, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of Business, Journal of Marketing, and Zeitschrift für 0konometrie. He is the author of the following books: Statistical Determination of Cost, 1936; The Management Counsel Profession, 1940; Statistical Cost Functions of a Hosiery Mill, 1941; The Relation of Cost to Output, 1941; The Long-Run Behavior of Costs (with J.W. James), 1942; Cost Behavior and Price Policies (others), 1942; Social Control of Business (ed. with E. Hoover), 1942; Pricing from the Seller’s Standpoint, 1949; Managerial Economics, 1951; and Capital Budgeting, 1951.

GERARD DEBREU (Agrégé de l'Université, 1946) joined the Cowles Commission as a research associate in June, 1950, upon completion of a Rockefeller fellowship under which he studied at Harvard University, the University of California at Berkeley, and the Universities of Chicago, Uppsala, and Oslo. Earlier he studied at the Ecole Normale Supérieure, 1941–44, prior to serving in the French army, 1944–45. From October 1946 to December 1948, he was attaché de recherches at the Centre National de Ia Recherche Scientifique, assistant professor of mathematics at the Conservatoire National des Arts et Metiers, professor at the Ecole d'Application de l'Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques at the Collége Libre des Science Sociales et Economiques, and director of a seminar on economic theory at the Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Mines. In June, 1951, he was appointed assistant professor in the Cowles Commission. Currently he is conducting research on the existence of an equilibrium for social systems, application to a competitive economy, numerical representations of technological change, structure of linear models and nonnegative square matrices, zero-sum two-person games, loss of efficiency due to a system of indirect taxes and subsidies, and real representation of a preference ordering. Debreu has published articles in Econometrica.
     See Cowles publications aby Gerard Debreu

GLAUCO DELLA PORTA* received the Ph.D. degree from the University of Rome and is now assistant professor of economics there. He came to the Cowles Commission on a fellowship from the Rockefeller Foundation. His research interests during his visit concerned the various approaches to short-term forecasting. Resulting from this two papers have been written in manuscript form, A Critical Appraisal of the Various Approaches to Short-Term Forecasting" and "Hick's Trade Cycle Model Revised" (tentative title).

BAREND A. DE VRIES (Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1951) studied at the University of Utrecht, 1942–46. He joined the Commission as a research assistant in August, 1946, and continued through July, 1948. While at the Commission he aided in the supervision and improvement of computational work which applied statistical methods developed by the staff. During 1946–48 he held a scholarship in the Department of Economics, the University of Chicago. Since 1949 he has been an economist with the International Monetary Fund where he is currently conducting research on monetary and commercial problems in international trade and on policy and analytical problems in economic growth and development. He held a research training fellowship of the Social Science Research Council in 1951. Papers by de Vries have appeared in the Staff Papers of the International Monetary Fund.

NATHAN J. DIVINSKY (B.S., University of Manitoba, 1946; M.S., 1947 and Ph.D., 1950, University of Chicago) joined the staff as a research associate in June 1949, to supervise the computational work of the Commission. In this connection he participated in a conference on computing machines at Harvard University in September 1949. During the year prior to joining the Commission he was a teaching assistant in the Department of Mathematics at the University of Chicago. In July 1950, he left the Commission to become assistant professor of mathematics at Ripon College. Divinsky spent the summer of 1951 teaching at the University of Southern Illinois, and in September of that year entered upon his present position as assistant professor of mathematics at the University of Manitoba. He was elected to Sigma Xi in 1950. A contribution by Divinsky appears in Studies in Econometric Method (forthcoming).

EVSEY D. DOMAR (B.A., University of California at Los Angeles, 1939; A.M. in mathematics, University of Michigan, 1941; M. A., 1943 and Ph.D., 1947, Harvard University) was a teaching fellow at University of Michigan, 1940–41, and at Harvard University, 1941–43. In 1943 he joined the Division of Research and Statistics of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. In 1946 he returned to academic pursuits as an assistant professor of economics at Carnegie Institute of Technology, and in 1947 joined the University of Chicago with the same rank. He also taught at George Washington University, summer 1944, and the University of Michigan, summer 1946. Domar became a research associate in the Cowles Commission in July 1947, and continued with the Commission and as assistant professor of economics until July 1948. At that time he accepted his present position as associate professor of political economy at the Johns Hopkins University. He taught at the College of the University of Chicago, summer 1948, and at the University of Buffalo, spring 1949. Since 1951 he has been a visiting associate professor at the Russian Institute of Columbia University. He was chairman of the Russian Economics Project, Operations Research Office, Johns Hopkins University, 1949–51. Domar has also been consultant for the RAND Corporation since 1951. In September 1952, he goes to Oxford University as a lecturer on a Fulbright grant for a year. His current field of interest is in the theory of economic growth and soviet economics. His articles have been published in the American Economic Review and Econometrica.
     See Cowles Publications by Evsey D. Domar

WILLIAM L. DUNAWAY (A.B. in business administration, 1949 and M.A. in mathematical statistics, 1952., University of California) was elected to membership in Phi Beta Kappa and Sigma Xi in 1949. He came to the University of Chicago on a William Rainey Harper fellowship, and became a research assistant of the Cowles Commission in January 1952. Prior to service in the army, 1942–46, he attended Cameron College, 1939–41, and was a reporter for various daily newspapers in Oklahoma, becoming city editor of the Woodward Daily Press. He is currently working on a study with Houthakker on futures trading.

ARYCH DVORETZKY is a consultant for the Cowles Commission. He is at present professor of mathematics at Hebrew University, Israel. He has formerly been associated with Columbia University, Cornell University, and the Institute of Numerical Analysis of the National Bureau of Standards at the University of California, Los Angeles. He participated actively in the conference on decision-making and uncertainty held at the Cowles Commission, November 1951. During 1951–52, he was research consultant on the Cowles Commission project on decision-making under uncertainty. He has published articles in the Annals of Mathematical Statistics and Econometrica.

MICHAEL FARRELL* received the Ph.D. degree from Oxford University, England, in philosophy, politics, and economics. He came to the Cowles Commission under a Commonwealth Fund fellowship. While here he has participated in many of the Commission's activities and has worked on the application of activity analysis to the theory of the firm. He has also presented a paper, Irreversible Demand Functions," later published in Econometrica, April 1951, which had resulted from his research with the Department of Applied Economics of Cambridge University.

KARL OLAF FAXÉN* received his fil.kand. at the University of Uppsala, 1944, and his fil. lic. at the University of Stockholm, 1951. He came to the University on a Rockefeller Foundation fellowship. His interest while at the Commission centered around decision-making under uncertainty and the theory of organizations. He also presented the papers, "Note on Marschak's Model of an Arbitrage Firm" and "Games with Non-Measurable Utilities."

MARIANNE ABELES FERBER was a part-time research assistant during the first half of 1946 while she was a fellow of the Department of Economics, the University of Chicago. During her association with the Commission she collected statistical data for Klein's studies on economic models in the United States. From September 1946, until October 1948, she worked in the Economic Section of the Standard Oil Co. (New Jersey). During 1947 and 1948 she taught evening courses at Hunter College. Currently Mrs. Ferber is working on her Ph.D. thesis in economics at the University of Chicago.

FRANÇOISE FERDINAND-DREYFUS*, formerly of the Institute of Statistics University of Paris, studied at the Cowles Commission from October 1947, to July 1948, on a Sarah Frances Hutchinson Cowles fellowship. She is now a member of the Econometric Seminar at the French Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique and is a statistician at the Institut National de Securité.

KIRK FOX (M.A. in economics, University of Chicago, 1951) became a research assistant at the Commission in November 1950. This position he held until February, 1952., at which time he became a research associate in the Departments of Food Technology and Agricultural Economics, University of Illinois. During 1951–52, he lectured on elementary and intermediate statistics at the School of Commerce, Northwestern University, and compiled information for an analytical subject guide and index to Econometrica. His current research concerns the most efficient pattern for the over-all movement of empty railroad cars from points of availability to points of need and various aspects of the economics of food processing industries.

GIOVANNI GERA*, a lawyer, is a member of the Faculty of Jurisprudence at the University of Rome. While at the Commission he gathered material for a paper on the incidence of a tax on profit.

MURRAY GERSTENHABER (B.S., Yale University, 1948; M.S., 1949 and Ph.D., 1951, University of Chicago) was with the Commission as a research assistant, May to December 1949. He held a fellowship in the Department of Mathematics while at the University of Chicago and, in addition to his association with the Commission, served as a research assistant in that Department from September, 1949, until June, 1950. Gerstenhaber received an Atomic Energy Commission predoctoral fellowship, 1950–51, and a Frank B. Jewett postdoctoral fellowship in mathematics, 1951–53. He was at Harvard University during 1951–52 and will be at the Institute for Advanced Study during the coming year. He contributed to Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, 1951.

MEYER A. GIRSHICK (A.B., 1932; M.A., 1934; and Ph.D. in mathematical statistics, 1946, Columbia University) served as a research consultant of the Cowles Commission during 1946 and 1947. In 1948 he entered upon his present position as professor of mathematical statistics at Stanford University. Previous to this he was a research statistician at Columbia University, 1935–37; associate statistician, Bureau of Home Economics, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1937–39; instructor, Graduate School, U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1937–47; principal statistician, Bureau of Agricultural Economics, 1939–44, 1945–46; principal statistician, National Defense Research Committee, 1944–45; with the U S. Bureau of the Census, 1946–47; and research mathematician, Douglas Aircraft Co., 1947–48. He was president of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics in 1952. and is a Fellow of that Society, and of the American Statistical Association. Girshick has made numerous contributions to mathematical statistics and statistical economics and particularly to the theory of sequential analysis.
     See Cowles publications by Meyer A. Girshick

Miss HENDRIEKE GORIS*, who obtained the degree economisch doctoranda at the Netherlands School of Economics in 1949, visited the United States on a Fulbright Smith–Mund scholarship. While at the University of Chicago she gathered material for a Ph.D. dissertation on tobacco markers in the United States. She presented a paper before a joint meeting of the Cowles Commission staff and the Agricultural Economics Research Group entitled, "Tobacco Production and Distribution in the United States."

JOHN GURLAND (M.A. in mathematics, University of Toronto, 1942; Ph.D. in mathematical statistics, University of California, 1948) was appointed assistant professor in September, 1949, jointly in the Cowles Commission and in the Committee on Statistics of the University of Chicago. Earlier he was at the Dominion Bureau of Statistics, Ottawa, 1944, and on a war research project at the Statistical Laboratory of the University of California in 1945. During 1948–49 he was Benjamin Peirce Instructor in Mathematics at Harvard University. He is now at the Statistics Laboratory, Iowa State College. He has published an article (with E.W. Barankin) in the University of California Publications in Statistics, 1951.
     See Cowles publications by John Gurland

SOPHIA GOGEK (B.A., University of Alberta, 1943; M.A., University of Chicago, 1946) was a part-time research assistant during 1945 while she was a fellow of the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago. In 1943–44 she was awarded the Charles R. Waigreen scholarship, in 1944–45 a Marshall Field fellowship, and in 1945–46 a University fellowship. Since 1946 she has been an economic analyst with the Standard Oil Co. (New Jersey). Her current research is on the study of trade relationships between the United States and various areas of the world.

TRYGVE HAAVELMO (Cand. Oecon., 1933 and Ph.D., 1946, University of Oslo) became associated with the Cowles Commission in July, 1943. He was in residence at Chicago as an instructor in the Department of Economics and a member of the Agricultural Economics Research Group from January, 1946, to March, 1947, at which time he returned to Norway, continuing his connection with the Commission as a research consultant, Haavelmo was a research assistant at the University Institute of Economics in Oslo, Norway, 1933–38, and lecturer in statistical theory at the University of Aarhus, Denmark, 1938–39. He studied at various European universities and in 1939–42, at American universities on an American Scandinavian Foundation fellowship and a Rockefeller Foundation fellowship. In 1942–44 he was statistician of the Norwegian Shipping and Trade Mission in New York, and in 1944–45 he was commercial secretary of the Royal Norwegian Embassy in Washington. He also served as consultant to the Norwegian Department of Commerce and vice-chairman of the Norwegian Economic Co-ordination Council. In April 1948, he was appointed professor of economics at the University of Oslo. He also lectured at the Universities of Aarhus and Copenhagen. In January 1950, he served as delegate to the United Nations Economic and Employment Commission, during which time he also visited the Cowles Commission and participated in staff discussions. Haavelmo is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. His contributions have been published in Econometrica, Journal of Farm Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of Economic Studies, and Statsøkonomisk Tidsskrift. He has also contributed to Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, 1950 and Studies in Econometric Method (forthcoming).
     See Cowles publications by Trygve Haavelmo

ANDERS HALD*, professor of statistics at the University of Copenhagen, was a guest of the Commission as a Rockefeller Fellow in 1948. After his return to Copenhagen he became dean of the Faculties of Economics, Law, and Statistics at the University. He is the author of The Decomposition of a Series of Observations Composed of a Trend, a Periodic Movement and a Stochastic Variable, 1948.
     See Cowles publication by Anders Hald

ARNOLD C. HARBERGER (M.A., 1947 and Ph.D., 1950, University of Chicago) was on the staff of the Cowles Commission as a research assistant, March through October 1949. He studied at the Johns Hopkins University, 1941–43, and served in the army, 1943–46. He attended the University of Chicago on a scholarship, 1947–48, and on a Marshall Field fellowship, 1948–49. In 1949 he left the Commission to become an assistant professor of economics at the Johns Hopkins University. From June to September 1950, he served as an economist for the International Monetary Fund. During 1951 he served as a staff consultant to the President's Materials Policy Commission. At the present time Harberger holds a three-year faculty research fellowship at Johns Hopkins provided by the Social Science Research Council. Articles by him have been published in the Journal of Political Economy and in Resources for Freedom, the report of the President’s Materials Policy Commission.
     See Cowles publications by Arnold C. Harberger

ALBERT G. HART (A.B., Harvard University, 1930; Ph.D., University of Chicago, 1936) was a research consultant of the Cowles Commission in 1945–46. He did graduate work in Vienna and Germany, 1930–31, and in London, 1934–35. Hart was a teaching assistant during 1931–33, and an instructor from 1934 through 1939, at the University of Chicago; an economic analyst, U.S. Treasury Department, 1934; lecturer, University of California, autumn, 1936; research director, Committee on Debt Adjustment of the Twentieth Century Fund, 1937–38; professor, Iowa State College, 1939–45; consultant in residence, U.S. Treasury Department, 1943–44; and research economist, Committee for Economic Development, 1944–46. In 1946 he went to Columbia University as a visiting professor, at which institution he is now professor of economics. From 1949 until 1951, he was the research director of the Economic Stabilization Study of the Twentieth Century Fund. Since 1949, he has been an editorial consultant in economics for Harcourt Brace & Co. He has been active in the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth and is a member of the executive committee of the American Economic Association. Papers by Hart have appeared in the American Economic Review, Journal of Political Economy, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Review of Economic Studies, and Studies in Income and Wealth. He is the author of Debts and Recovery, 1938; Anticipations, Uncertainty and Dynamic Planning, 1940; Paying for Defense (with E.D. Allen and others), 1941; Social Framework of the American Economy (with J.R. Hicks), 1945; Jobs and Markets (with M. de Chazeau, G.C. Means, H. Stein, and T.O. Yntema), 1946; Money, Debt, and Economic Activity, 1948; Defense without Inflation, 1951; and Financing Defense (with E. Cary Brown), 1951.

JACOB HARTOG* of the Netherlands Economic Institute participated in the research of the Commission as Rockefeller Fellow in 1947–48. His research interests include models of international trade and problems of western European economic integration.

I.N. HERSTEIN (B.Sc., University of Manitoba, 1945; M.A., University of Toronto, 1946; Ph.D. in mathematics, Indiana University, 1948) joined the staff of the Cowles Commission in late 1951 as a research associate with the complimentary rank of assistant professor, and at the same time was appointed a research associate in the Department of Mathematics, University of Chicago. Effective July 1952, he was appointed to the faculty of the Commission as an assistant professor. Prior to his association with the Commission he held a traveling fellowship in 1946; was an instructor at the University of Kansas, 1948–50; and a visiting lecturer at Ohio State University, 1950–51. Currently he is working on the development of mathematical tools for economists, especially in matrix theory, and is continuing his mathematical research in group and ring theory. Herstein is a member of Sigma Xi and Pi Mu Epsilon. His articles have appeared in the American Journal of Mathematics, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Canadian Journal of Mathematics, Det Kongelige Norske Videnskabers Selskab, Pacific Journal of Mathematics, and Publicationes Mathematicac.
     See Cowles publications by I.N. Hernstein

CLIFFORD HILDRETH (AB., University of Kansas, 1939; M.S., 1941 and Ph.D., 1947, Iowa State College) joined the staff in January 1949, as assistant professor in the Cowles Commission and research associate in the Department of Economics under a joint appointment with the Agricultural Economics Research Group. Prior to coming to the University of Chicago, he held appointments at Iowa State College as a graduate assistant, 1939–41; as instructor and research associate, 1941–43, and 1946–47; as assistant professor (joint appointment with the Agricultural Experimental Station and Statistical Laboratory) 1947–48; and as associate professor, Department of Economics and Sociology, and research associate professor, Statistical Laboratory, 1948. From April 1943, to January 1946, he was on active duty with the U.S. Navy, where he was air navigator with the Naval Air Transport Service. In July 1950, he was promoted to associate professor in the Cowles Commission and to research associate (associate professor) in the Department of Economics. He is currently engaged in a statistical study of supply and demand for livestock products in the United States. Since June 1950, he has consulted with the U.S. Treasury Department on estimating effects of excise taxes. His publications have appeared in the American Economic Review, Journal of Farm Economics, and Quarterly Journal of Economics. Contributions by Hildreth have appeared in Paying for Defense, 1941, and Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, 1951.
     See Cowles publications by Clifford Hildreth

WILLIAM C. HOOD (Ph.D., University of Toronto, 1948) joined the Cowles Commission as research associate in September 1949, at which time he also became a postdoctoral fellow in political economy at the University of Chicago. He was a member of the Department of Economics of the University of Saskatchewan, 1944–46, and of the Department of Economics of the University of Toronto, 1946–49. Earlier, during the war, he served as a meteorologist attached to the Royal Canadian Air Force. In July 1950, he returned to the University of Toronto as assistant professor of economics, at which time he became a research consultant of the Cowles Commission. His current research concerns certain problems of aggregation in economics such as the optimum degree of grouping of variables for decision-making purposes by firms. He has published in the American Journal of Psychiatry, the Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, and Econometrica. He is a contributor to and co-editor (with T.C. Koopmans) of Studies in Econometric Method (forthcoming).
     See Cowles publications by William C. Hood

H.S. HOUTHAKKER (B.A. in economics, 1947 and Doctorandus in economics, 1949, University of Amsterdam) was at the University of Cambridge, 1949–51, as a junior research worker and later as a research officer. He came to the Cowles Commission in January 1952, as an assistant professor. At present he is doing empirical research on dynamic economics with special reference to futures trading. He was elected Fellow of the Econometric Society in 1952. Houthakker has published articles in De Economist, Economica, Economic Journal, Review of Economic Studies, and Journal of the Royal Statistical Society.
     See Cowles publications by H.S. Houthakker

LEONID HURWICZ (Ll.M., University of Warsaw, 1938) joined the Cowles Commission staff as a research associate in 1942. He studied at the London School of Economics, the Postgraduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva, the University of Chicago, and Harvard University and has held a research and teaching fellowship at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. From 1942–44, Hurwicz was a member of the faculty of the Institute of Meteorology of the University of Chicago. He was associate director under Yntema on a study of the committee on price control and rationing. At the end of 1944 he became a full-time research associate for the Cowles Commission and also served as a consultant to the United States Army Air Force. During 1945–46 he held a fellowship of the John Simon Guggenheim Foundation and at the same time was on leave of absence as associate professor of economics and statistics at Iowa State College. In 1946 he became a research consultant of the Cowles Commission and in 1949, a consultant of the RAND Corporation. During the second half of 1948 he was a consultant with the U.S. Bureau of Standards. In 1949 Hurwicz joined the faculty of the University of Illinois as a research professor of economics and mathematical statistics. In October 1950, he came to the Cowles Commission on a full-time basis as a research associate and visiting professor and assumed Koopmans' research leadership in the Cowles Commission and teaching duties in the Department of Economics during the latter's absence. In September, 1951, he became professor of economics and mathematics in the School of Business Administration at the University of Minnesota. In 1946, he was an associate editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association. He was elected to Sigma Xi in 1946. He became a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 1949. Since 1950 he has been a consultant to the Bureau of the Budget on interindustry problems. Abstracts, papers, and reviews by Hurwicz have appeared in the American Economic Review, Current Economic Comment (University of Illinois), Econometrica, Journal of the American Statistical Association, and Proceedings of the International Statistical Conferences. He also contributed to Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, 1950.
     See Cowles publications by Leonid Hurwicz

HERBERT E. JONES (A.B., 1926 and a degree in engineering, 1928, Stanford University) was a research fellow of the Cowles Commission from April 1936, to September 1937, and continued as a research associate until his death in January 1942. While with the Commission his major studies were on cost functions associated with hydraulic pumping, the nature of regression functions in correlation analysis, statistics of time series, and differentiation between "lag hysteresis" and "skew hysteresis." Previous to coming to the Commission he had been a hydraulic engineer for the Federal Water Service Corporation in San Francisco and New York. Publications by Jones appeared in Barron’s, Econometrica, and Metron. See In Memoriam, Herbert Jones, 1904–1942.

GEORGE KATONA (Ph.D., Göttingen, 1921) joined the staff in January, 1943, as co-director of the study of price control and rationing and assumed the administrative direction of the project. At the completion of this project in January 1945, he became senior study director in the Division of Program Surveys in the U.S. Department of Agriculture. He held this position until October 1946, at which time he became program director of the economic behavior program of the Survey Research Center, and also professor of economics and psychology, University of Michigan. Katona was associate editor of Der Deutsche Volkswirt, Berlin, 1926–33, as well as correspondent for the Wall Street Journal 1929–33. He worked as an economic adviser in New York, 1934–38; was with the New School for Social Research as a research associate and then lecturer, 1935–36; conducted psychological research under grants-in-aid for the Carnegie Corporation of New York, 1938–39; and conducted investigations in war economics as a Guggenheim Fellow, 1940–42. He is author of numerous articles in economic and psychological journals and of the following books: Zur Psychologie des Vergleichens und der Relationserfassung, 1934; Organizing and Memorizing, Studies in the Psychology of Learning and Teaching, 1940; War Without Inflation, The Psychological Approach to Problems of War Economy, 1942; Price Control and Business, 1945; and Psychological Analysis of Economic Behavior, 1951.
     See Cowles publications by George Katona

CARL N. KLAHR (M.S. in physics, 1948, and M.S. in economics and D.Sc. in physics, 1950, Carnegie Institute of Technology) was a research consultant of the Cowles Commission, 1949–50. He was a research assistant in econometrics, Carnegie Institute of Technology, 1947–48; Atomic Energy Commission Fellow, 1948–49; and a fellow in economics in the Mellon School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Institute of Technology, 1949–50. In August 1950, he became a research engineer in problems of solid state physics and electronics, Westinghouse Research Laboratories. Since March 1952, he has been a consultant to Carnegie Institute of Technology on a research project in intrafirm analysis. Currently he is engaged in research on methods of determining pricing policy for the firm. In April and May of 1952, he gave a series of lectures in the Graduate School of Industrial Administration, Carnegie Institute of Technology, on statistical determination of simultaneous equations describing intrafirm production functions, which were later mimeographed for distribution. In October 1952, he will join Nuclear Development Associates, Inc., White Plains, New York. He has had articles published in Physical Review.

LAWRENCE R. KLEIN (B.A., University of California, 1942; Ph.D., Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1944) joined the staff of the Cowles Commission in November, 1944, as a research associate. Earlier, he was a George May Fellow and Teaching Fellow at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 1943–44. In 1945 he received a post-doctoral fellowship and in 1947 a traveling fellowship from the Social Science Research Council. Prior to studying economic planning in Norway he spent a few months in Canada as a consultant to the Director General of the Economic Research Branch, Department of Reconstruction and Supply, Ottawa. From 1948 to 1951 Klein was a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research. Since 1949 he has been a research associate of the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan, joining the Department of Economics there in 1950 as a lecturer and the Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics as a research associate in 1951. Klein's association with the Cowles Commission was again made active in May 1951, at which time he was appointed as a research consultant. In 1948, Klein was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society. He has had several articles published in the following journals: American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of Political Economy, Kyklos, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economic Studies, and Statsøkonomisk Tidsschift. He has written two books, Keynesian Revolution, 1947, and Economic Fluctuations in the United States, 1921–1941, 1950. Contributions by Klein appear in Conference on Business Cycles, 1951 and Studies in Income and Wealth, Vol. 14, 1951.
     See Cowles publications by Lawrence R. Klein

SONIA ADELSON KLEIN* was appointed a Sarah Frances Hutchinson Cowles Fellow in 1946. The fellowship was awarded to students preparing for advanced degrees in the fields of the social sciences and statistics, with preference to students who would be working on quantitative economics or mathematical statistics.

TJALLING C. KOOPMANS (Ph.D., University of Leiden, 1936) lectured at the Rotterdam School of Economics and served on the staff of the Netherlands Economic Institute, 1936–37. From 1938 to 1940 he was engaged in business-cycle research at the League of Nations in Geneva. In 1910–41 he was on the staff of the Local and State Government Section of the School for Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, and also taught statistics at New York University. In 1941–42, he was economist with the Penn Mutual Life Insurance Company, and in 1942–44 he was statistician to the Combined Shipping Adjustment Board at Washington. Koopmans joined the staff of the Cowles Commission in July 1944, as a research associate. In 1946 he also became an associate professor in the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago. In 1948 he was appointed director of research of the Commission and professor of economics at the University of Chicago. He was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 1940, of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics in 1941, of the American Statistical Association in 1949, and a member of the International Statistical Institute in 1951. He served as vice-president of the Econometric Society in 1949 and as president in 1950. He was a member of a committee of the Social Science Research Council on the Social Implications of Atomic Energy and Technological Change. From August 1950, to January 1951, Koopmans visited leading European centers of research and instruction in econometrics and was appointed at that time correspondent member of the Royal Dutch Academy of Sciences in Amsterdam. He has had various articles published in the American Economic Review, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Econometrica, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of Political Economy, Proceedings of the International Statistical Conferences, and Review of Economics and Statistics. He is editor of Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, 1950, and Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, 1951; and co-editor of Studies in Econometric Method (forthcoming). Two books by Koopmans, Linear Regression Analysis of Economic Time Series, 1937, and Tanker Freight Rates and Tankship Building, 1939, have been published.
     See Cowles publications and by Tjalling C. Koopmans

OSCAR LANGE (Ll.D., University of Cracow, 1928) became a research associate of the Cowles Commission in September 1939. He lectured at the University of Cracow from 1931; at the Polish Free University, Warsaw, 1937; at the University of Michigan, 1936; at the University of California, 1937–38; and at Stanford University, 1938. He became an assistant professor of economics at the University of Chicago in 1938 and an associate professor the following year. He was on leave of absence as visiting professor at Columbia University during the academic year, 1941–43. He served as acting editor of Econometrica, 1943–45, when it was impossible to communicate with the editor, Ragnar Frisch. In 1945 he left the University of Chicago and the Cowles Commission to become ambassador of Poland to the United States. Currently, he is Rector and Professor at the School of Planning and Statistics in Warsaw. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and a member of the Polish Academy of Sciences. Articles by Lange have appeared in the American Economic Review, Econometrica, Economic Mobilization, Encyclopaedia of Political Science, Journal of the American Statistical Association, New Leader, Political Science Quarterly, Quarterly Journal of Economics, and Review of Economic Studies. He is author of the following books: Foundations of Towns on German Law in Western Poland during the Middle Ages, 1925; The Statistical Investigation of Economic Fluctuations, 1931, Die Preisdispersion als Mittel zur statistischen Messung wirtschaftlicher Gleichgewichtsstörungen, 1932; On the Economic Theory of Socialism, 1938; Price Flexibility and Employment, 1945; and Theory of Statistics, 1952.
     See Cowles publications by Oscar Lange

DICKSON H. LEAVENS (B. A., 1909 and M.A. in mathematics, 1915, Yale University) is a member of Phi Beta Kappa and Sigma Xi. He taught at the College of Yale in China, Changsha, 1909–28 and was treasurer from 1916 to 1928. From 1929 to 1933 he was on the research staff of the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. In 1934 he served in China and India as a special agent of the U.S. Treasury Department to investigate the silver situation. Leavens was a research associate of the Cowles Commission, 1936–47, and in addition served as managing editor of Econometrica, 1937–48. In 1943 he taught mathematics to students in the Army Specialized Training Program. Leavens has specialized in the monetary use of silver. He is now living in Colorado Springs, Colorado. Articles by him have been published in American Economic Review, American Mathematical Monthly, American Statistician, Annalist, Annals of American Academy of Political and Social Science, Chinese Economic Journal, Econometrica, Engineering and Mining Journal, Financial News (Bombay), Finance and Commerce (Shanghai), Harvard Business Review, Journal of Accountancy, Journal of American Statistical Association, The Mineral Industry (yearbook), Popular Astronomy, Review of Economics and Statistics, and Trusts and Estates. He is author of Problems in Business Statistics (with Theodore H. Brown), 1931 and Silver Money, 1939.
     See Cowles publications by Dickson H. Leavens

ERICH L. LEHMANN (M.A., 1942. and Ph.D., 1946, University of California) has been on the teaching staff of the University of California since 1942, and is now an associate professor of mathematics in the Statistical Laboratory at that institution. He was on leave in 1944–45 as operations analyst with the U.S. Air Force; in 1950–51 to teach at Columbia University and Princeton University; and in 1951–52 as visiting associate professor at Stanford University. Lehmann was appointed a research consultant of the Cowles Commission in 1951. He has been elected as the incoming editor of the Annals of Mathematical Statistics. Publications by Lehmann have appeared in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Comptes Rendus des Séances de l’Acadimie des Sciences, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Mathematical Reviews, Proceedings of the First Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Proceedings of the Second Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Sankhya, and Scripta Mathematica.

ROY B. LEIPNIK (S.M., University of Chicago, 1948; Ph.D. in mathematics, University of California, 1950) was on the staff of the Commission as a research assistant, 1945–46. He was an associate in mathematics in 1946–48 at the University of California; a member of the Institute for Advanced Study at Princeton in 1948–50; and since 1950 has been an assistant professor of mathematics at the University of Washington. His current research interests include distribution of serial correlation in a continuous stochastic process, operational calculus, inversion of nonlinear operators and distribution of quotients. In 1949–50 he was chairman of the Princeton Chapter, Federation of American Scientists. Papers by Leipnik have been published in the Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Bulletin of American Mathematical Society, and Proceedings of the American Mathematical Society. He has also contributed to Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, 1950.
     See Cowles publications by Roy B. Leipnik

JULES LEVEUGLE*, Institut National de la Statistique, Paris, participated in the research discussions of the Commission in 1949–50. His current research is in estimates of national income for French Colonies.

HAROLD GREGG LEWIS (A.B., 1936 and Ph.D., 1947, University of Chicago) came to the Commission as a research associate in 1939. From 1943 to 1945 he was on leave of absence to act as executive secretary and later assistant wage stabilization director of the Chicago Regional Office of the War Labor Board. In 1945 he served in the army, resumed his teaching at the University of Chicago in the autumn quarter, and became a research consultant of the Cowles Commission, continuing in that capacity through 1946. He is now an associate professor of economics at the University of Chicago. Earlier Lewis was a university fellow in economics at the University of Chicago, 1937–38; fellow of the Brookings Institution, 1938–39; instructor in economics, University of Chicago 1939–46. His current research interests include a study of the scientific content of various theories of the labor market. Papers by Lewis have been published in the American Economic Review, Econometrica, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of Business, Journal of Political Economy, and Review of Economic Studies. He is co-author (with Paul H. Douglas) of Studies in Consumer Expenditures, 1947.

SIRO LOMBARDINI* came to the Cowles Commission though the co-operation of the Fulbright fellowship program and the Institute of International Education. He maintained contact with the work of the Commission from his arrival in October 1950, until June 1951, at which time he returned to Italy to join the faculty of the University of Milan.

C. B. McGUIRE (B.A. in economics and political science, University of Minnesota, 1949) became a research assistant at the Cowles Commission in January 1952. Earlier he served in the Navy, 1943–46, and attended the University of Minnesota, 1946–49, and the University of Chicago, 1949–52. Currently McGuire is working on problems of highway capacity and utilization.
     See Cowles publications C.B. McGuire

FRANCIS McINTYRE (A.B., Stanford University, 1931; Ph.D., University of Chicago, 1941) was a research associate of the Cowles Commission from 1937–40. He was a research assistant of the Social Science Research Committee, 1931–32, and a university fellow in economics, 1932–34, University of Chicago. He was an instructor in statistics and economics at Stanford University, 1934–37, and associate professor of economics at Colorado College, 1937–39. In 1939–40 he was on leave of absence as assistant professor of economics at Stanford University, resigning from the Commission in 1940 to become assistant professor of economics and statistics, Indiana University. In 1942 he was made associate professor, but was on leave of absence to serve as program officer, Lend Lease Administration, 1942–43, and program officer and chief, Program Coordination Staff, Foreign Economic Administration, 1943–45. In 1945 he served as member of the United States Delegation, UNRRA Conference, London. McIntyre was deputy director, Requirements and Supply Branch (later director, Export Control Branch), Office of International Trade, U.S. Department of Commerce, 1946–47. In 1947–49, he was assistant director and later acting director of the Office of International Trade, U.S. Department of Commerce. Since 1949 he has been director of economic research, California Texas Oil Company, Ltd., New York.

PIERRE MAILLET* (Ingénieur Ecole Polytechnique, 1946; Ingénieur Civil des Mines, 1948) Stagiaire de Recherches au Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, participated in the research discussions of the Commission during 1949–50. At present he is associated with Professor F. Divisia of the Ecole Polytechnique in the development of an input-output research project. He has had papers published in the Revue d’economie politique.

EDMOND MALINVAUD* of the Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Paris, was at the Commission as a Rockefeller Fellow from July 1950 through June 1951. Currently he is an active participant in the econometric seminars conducted in Paris by Professors Allais and Roy. In March 1952, he was appointed as an associate editor of Econometrica. His research is concerned with the theory of econometric models and the principles which should underlie the aggregation of variables and relations when a model is built for use in economic policy.
     See Cowles publications by Edmond Malinvaud

STEN MALMQUIST*, Statistical Institute of the University of Uppsala, Sweden, was in residence at the Commission as a guest from November 1950 through March 1951. His research interests include the study of demand for rationed commodities and econometric methods in general.

HARRY MARKOWITZ (M.A., University of Chicago, 1950) became a research assistant of the Cowles Commission in October 1949. In 1950 he held a University of Chicago fellowship in the Department of Economics. In 1950–51 he was a research fellow of the Cowles Commission and a fellow of the Social Science Research Council. Currently he is with the RAND Corporation. He has published articles in the Journal of Finance and the Journal of Political Economy.
     See Cowles publications by Harry Markowitz

JACOB MARSCHAK (Ph.D., University of Heidelberg, 1922; M.A. by decree from the University of Oxford, 1935) studied at the Technological Institute at Kiev, and at the Universities of Berlin and Heidelberg. Marschak accepted appointment as research director of the Cowles Commission and as professor of economics in the University of Chicago in January 1943. His past teaching positions include assistant professor at the University of Heidelberg, 1930–33; Chichele lecturer in economics at All Souls College, Oxford University, 1933–35; reader in statistics and director of the Institute of Statistics, Oxford University, 1935–39; professor of economics, Graduate Faculty of Social and Political Science, New York, 1939–42. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society, served as vice-president in 1944 and 1945 and as president in 1946, and continued on the Council of the Society through 1949. He served on the executive committee of the Conference on Research on Income and Wealth from 1943 to 1947 and was its chairman in 1948. He was a vice-president of the American Statistical Association, a director of its Chicago Chapter, a collaborating editor of the Journal of the American Statistical Association, and was elected Fellow of that Association in 1947. Marschak was elected a member of the International Statistical Institute in 1948. He served on the Committee on Social Aspects of Atomic Energy of the Social Science Research Council in 1946–49 and was co-director of the study on economic aspects of atomic power. He served as a member of the organizing and editorial committees of the Universities–National Bureau Conference on Business Cycles Research in the fall of 1949. He has been a member of the editorial board of Econometrica, 1943–46, and Human Relations since 1948, a member of the editorial board of Metroeconomica since 1951, and cooperates in the editing of the Journal of Political Economy. During the winter quarter of 1948 Marschak was visiting professor at the National University of Mexico and at the University of Buffalo. Marschak resigned as director of research in June 1948, but continued as senior research associate of the Commission and as professor of economics at the University of Chicago. In 1950 he became a consultant of the RAND Corporation and a member of an inter-society committee on the mathematical training of social scientists. In 1951 he became principal investigator of the project on decision-making under uncertainty; he participated in the Colloquium on Risk and Uncertainty convened by the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris. Since Marschak joined the Cowles Commission, he has published articles and papers in American Economic Review, Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, Econometrica, Journal of Political Economy, Mathematical Reviews, Metroeconomica, and Review of Economics and Statistics. He is author of Die Lohndiskussion, 1931; author of Die Elastizetat der Nachfrage, 1931; co-author of Kapitalbildung, 1936; co-editor of Management in Russian Industry and Agriculture, and author of the Introduction, 1944; co-author of Economic Aspects of Atomic Power, 1950; wrote the introduction to Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, 1950; and is a contributor to Studies in Econometric Method (forthcoming).
     See Cowles publications by Jacob Marschak

ANDREW MARSHALL* as a graduate student in the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago, worked closely with the Commission from September, 1948 to March, 1949, in a study of the Klein model, the subject of his M.A. thesis in economics. He is at present an economist at the RAND Corporation.

KENNETH O. MAY (A.B., 1936; M.A., 1937; Ph.D., 1946, all in mathematics, University of California) was associated with the Commission as a research consultant in 1946 and 1947. He was a fellow in mathematics at the University of California, 1936–37 and 1939–40. During the interim he was a traveling fellow of the Institute of Current World Affairs, studying at the University of London and University of Paris. May served in the 87th Mountain Infantry in the Aleutians, 1943, and in Italy, 1945. He was an instructor at the University Study Center, Florence, Italy. In the summer of 1947, he taught at the University of Minnesota. Since 1946 he has been a professor at Carleton College, becoming a full professor and chairman of the Department of Mathematics and Astronomy in 1952. At present he is interested in theory of choice, production function, theory of value, and mathematics for economists. He is an associate editor of Econometrica. May is a member of Sigma Xi and Phi Beta Kappa. Articles by him have been published in the Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Econometrica, Economic Journal, Mathematics Magazine, Mathematical Monthly, and Review of Economic Studies. He is the author of Elementary Analysis, 1952.
     See Cowles publications by Kenneth O. May

HORST MENDERSHAUSEN (Ph.D., University of Geneva, 1937) joined the staff as a research fellow in November, 1938. Between the years 1930 and 1937 he studied at the Universities of Freiburg, Heidelberg, Berlin, and Geneva, and the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva. During 1937–38 he held a fellowship of the Rockefeller Foundation. He left the staff of the Commission in September 1939, to join the Faculty of Colorado College. Since that time he has been associated with the National Bureau of Economic Research and with Bennington College; assistant chief of price control of the U.S. Military Government of Germany, 1946–48; joined the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 1949; visiting professor, University of Minnesota, 1950; staff member of the President's Materials Policy Commission, 1951–52; and is now a member of the Currie mission to Caldas, Colombia. He is the author of two books: Changes of Seasonality in the Building Industry, 1937, and The Economics of War, 1940. He has also published several papers on economic and statistical topics.

FRANCO MODIGLIANI (D.Jr., University of Rome, 1939; D.Soc.Sc., New School for Social Research, 1944) joined the Cowles Commission as a research associate in September, 1948, at which time he also became a fellow in political economy at the University of Chicago. During 1941–42, he held the Halle fellowship at the New School. He was interim instructor in economics and statistics, New Jersey College for Women, (Rutgers University), in the spring of 1942; instructor at Bard College of Columbia University, summer, 1942, and associate until 1945. At that time he returned to the New School for Social Research and remained there until coming to the University of Chicago. In November 1948, he became an associate professor in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, a member of the Department of Economics of the University of Illinois, and continued his association with the Cowles Commission as a research consultant. He is now serving on the executive committee for the National Conference on Income and Wealth of the National Bureau of Economic Research. In the fall of 1952, he will leave the University of Illinois to assume teaching duties at Carnegie Institute of Technology. He was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 1949. Papers by Modigliani have appeared in Econometrica, Proceedings Supplement of the American Economic Review, and Studies in Income and Wealth.
     See Cowles publications by Franco Modigliani

FRANÇOIS MORIN* graduated from the Ecole Polytechnique and the Ecole Supérieure des Mines, both of Paris. He is at present Ingénieur du Corps des Mines. He came to the University under a fellowship awarded by the Rotary International and contributed discussion papers entitled Note on an Inventory Problem Discussed by Modigliani and Hohn" and "Linear Activity Analysis and International Trade."
     See Cowles publications by François Morin

JACOB L. MOSAK (A.B., 1935 and Ph.D., 1941; University of Chicago) joined the staff of the Cowles Commission as a research associate in September 1939. He was a research assistant to Henry Schultz at the University of Chicago, 1935–38; Social Science Research Council Fellow, 1938–39; instructor in economics at the University of Chicago, 1939–41. In 1941 he was on leave of absence, and held various positions in the Research Division of the Office of Price Administration, resigning from the Commission's staff at the end of 1945. He was chief of the Stabilization Division of the Office of War Mobilization and Reconversion, 1946–47. In 1947 he became an economic affairs officer with the United Nations and has been visiting lecturer in economics at Columbia University since 1948. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society. His articles have appeared in American Economic Review, Econometrica, and Journal of the American Statistical Association. Mosak is the author of General-Equilibrium Theory in International Trade, 1944.
     See Cowles publication by Jacob L. Mosak

WILLIAM F.C. NELSON (A.B., University of Toronto, 192.1), from 1932 until his death in May, 1936, was a research associate of the Cowles Commission. He also served as assistant editor of Econometrica, and was a lecturer in statistics at Colorado College. He is a co-author of Elements of Statistics, 1937.

WILLIAM PARRISH (A.B., Dartmouth College) came to the University of Chicago for graduate work in statistics. In 1949 he joined the computation staff of the Cowles Commission, becoming computation leader in July 1951. Later that year he left the Commission to become statistician in the Market Analysis Department of General Mills, Inc. As computation leader, he devised methods and procedures for numerical development and testing of research projects of the staff.

DON PATINKIN (B.A., 1943; A.M., 1945; Ph.D., 1947; University of Chicago) joined the staff as a research assistant in May 1946. In July 1947, he was appointed research associate in the Cowles Commission and assistant professor of economics in the University of Chicago. He held these positions until June 1948, when he became associate professor of economics at the University of Illinois. Since February 1949, he has been on the economics faculty at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. Patinkin held the Harper fellowship at the University of Chicago in 1945–46, and a predoctoral fellowship of the Social Science Research Council in 1946–47. His articles have been published in the American Economic Review, Econometrica, Economic Journal, Jewish Social Studies, Metroeconomica, Quarterly Journal of Economics, and Review of Economic Studies.
     See Cowles publications by Don Patinkin

GEORGE PERAZICH (B.S. in electrical engineering, University of California, 1933) joined the staff in March 1947, as a research associate on the study of the economics of atomic energy. In October 1947, he left Chicago but continued as a part-time research consultant until the end of the year. Perazich was with the National Research Project, Philadelphia, as engineer in charge of studies in technology and industrial techniques, 1935–40. For two years he was assistant director and consulting engineer, Research Advisory Service, Buffalo, New York. From 1944 to 1947 he served overseas with the United Nations Relief and Rehabilitation Administration as director of industrial rehabilitation and deputy chief of supply. He is senior author of Industrial Research and Changing Technology, Industrial Instruments and Changing Technology, and Mechanization in the Cement Industry, and author of several technical articles and special surveys. He contributed to Economic Aspects of Atomic Power, 1950.

ALAN PREST* of the Department of Applied Economics, University of Cambridge, was at the Commission as a Rockefeller Fellow in the Fall of 1948. Among his research interests are the econometric theory of demand over long periods.

ROY RADNER (Ph.B., 1945, and M.S., 1951; University of Chicago) studied under a William Cook scholarship at the University of Chicago, 1944–45. After three years in the armed forces, he returned to the University to complete his studies. He became a research assistant of the Commission in March 1951, and a research associate in November of that year. He is currently conducting research in the theory of statistical decision-making.
     See Cowles publications by Roy Radner

GEORGE RASCH*, statistician of the State Serum Institute, University of Copenhagen, was on the staff of the Commission and a fellow of the University of Chicago in 1947. He collaborated with Koopmans and Reiersøl in a comparative study of problems of specification and identification, arising in econometrics, psychology, and biology.

OLAV REIERSØL (M.A., University of Oslo, 1935; Ph.D., University of Stockholm, 1945) joined the Commission as a research fellow for the summer of 1949 after serving as visiting professor of mathematics at Purdue University, 1948–49. He is now assistant professor of mathematics at the University of Oslo. Reiersøl was a research assistant to Professor Frisch at the University Institute of Economics in Oslo, 1936–37, and the instructor in mathematical statistics at the University of Oslo, 1938–46, except for the latter part of the war when he took refuge in Sweden. In the spring of 1946 he studied at the University of Cambridge as a fellow of the British Council. After that he received a Rockefeller fellowship under which he studied at Columbia University, University of North Carolina, University of Chicago, and University of California, Berkeley. He was elected a Fellow of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics in 1950, and a Fellow of the Econometric Society in 1952. Articles by him have appeared in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Arkiv för Matematik, Astronomi och Fysik, Econometrica, Portugaliae Mathematica, Psychometrika, and Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift.
     See Cowles publications by Olav Reiersøl

STANLEY REITER (A. B., Queens College, 1947; M.A., University of Chicago, 1950) assisted the Cowles Commission, summer of 1948, while a graduate student in economics at the University of Chicago, and rejoined the Commission as a research assistant in March 1949. Earlier he was at Queens College, 1941–43, and again from 1945–47, following service in the army. In December 1949, Reiter became a research associate of the Commission in which capacity he remained until joining the economics staff at Stanford University in September, 1950, at which institution he is now an assistant professor. He contributed to Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, 1951.
     See Cowles publications by Stanley Reiter

CHARLES F. ROOS (B.A., 1921; M.A., 1924; Ph.D., 1926; Rice Institute) was director of research of the Cowles Commission from September, 1934, to January, 1937. He was National Research Council Fellow in mathematics 1926–28; assistant professor of mathematics at Cornell University, 1928–31; secretary of Section K (economics, sociology, and statistics), American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1928–31, and permanent secretary and member of the executive committee of that organization, 1931–33; fellow of the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation, 1933; director of research, National Recovery Administration, 1933–34; and professor of econometrics, Colorado College, 1934–37. He was one of the founders of the Econometric Society; secretary-treasurer, 1931–32; secretary, 1932–36; vice-president, 1947; and president, 1948. He is a Fellow and has been a member of the council of the Society. He is a member of the International Statistical Institute and a Fellow of both the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. He resigned from the staff of the Commission in January 1937, to accept a business research position and later organized the Institute of Applied Econometrics, Inc., now called The Econometric Institute, Inc. He is now president of that organization. Approximately 60 papers on economics, statistics, and mathematics have been published in the American Journal of Mathematics, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Commercial and Financial Chronicle, Econometrica, Metron, Journal of Political Economy, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, and Transactions of the American Mathematical Society. He is author of the following books: Dynamic Economics, 1934; NRA Economic Planning, 1937; Economic Measures, 1938; Dynamics of Automobile Demand, 1939; and Charting the Course of Your Business, 1948.
     See Cowles publications by Charles F. Roos

HERMAN RUBIN (B.S., 1944; M.S., 1945; Ph.D., 1948; University of Chicago) joined the staff as a research assistant in July 1944; he served in the U.S. Army from March to December 1945, returning to the staff in January 1946. He became a research associate in November 1946. In September 1947, he became a research fellow with the Institute for Advanced Study, Princeton, continuing his association with the Cowles Commission as a research consultant. The following year he was in residence at the Commission as a research associate and concurrently taught at Illinois Institute of Technology. In September 1949, he joined the faculty at Stanford University as acting assistant professor of statistics and again became a research consultant. Publications by Rubin have appeared in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Econometrica, and Review of Economic Studies. He has also contributed to Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, 1950; and Studies in Econometric Method (forthcoming).
     See Cowles publications by Herman Rubin

ERIK RUIST*, of the Swedish Institute for Industrial, Economic, and Social Research, was a guest from January to May 1949. His research interests include the statistical aspects of the theory of production and allocation of resources, and the econometric study of demand over long periods.

SAM H. SCHURR (B.A., 1938 and M.A., 1939, Rutgers University) joined the staff of the Cowles Commission in the autumn of 1946 as co-director (with the rank of assistant professor) of the study of the economics of atomic energy. In December 1948, he became a research consultant of the Commission, remaining in that capacity until the report on the project was brought into publication in 1950. Schurr was on the research staff of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1939–43; economist, Office of Strategic Services, 1943–45; economic adviser to U.S. Representative, Allied Commission on Reparations, 1945–46; and chief, Manufacturing and Mining Branch, Division of Interindustry Economics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1949–50; and associate director of the Teaching Institute of Economics, American University, 1949–50. In June 1950, he became chief economist of the U.S. Bureau of Mines. He is co-author of The Mining Industries, 1899–1939: A Study of Output, Employment and Productivity, 1944, and co-editor of Economic Aspects of Atomic Power, 1950.]
     See Cowles publications by Sam H. Schurr

MILTON F. SEARL was a research consultant in the Cowles Commission project on economic aspects of atomic power. He received a degree in economics from the Illinois Institute of Technology in 1948. He is the author of Chapter XII, "Residential Heating," Economic Aspects of Atomic Power, 1950. Searl is employed as an economist by the Stanolind Oil and Gas Company, Tulsa, Oklahoma.

HERBERT A. SIMON (A.B., 1936, and Ph.D., 1943, University of Chicago) has been a research consultant of the Cowles Commission since April 1947. He was a research assistant at the University of Chicago, 1937–38; with the Bureau of Public Administration, University of California, 1939–42; and with Illinois Institute of Technology as assistant professor of political science, 1942–45, associate professor, 1945–47, chairman of the Department of Political and Social Science, 1946–49, and full professor, 1947–49. He served as a consultant for the U.S. Bureau of the Budget, 1946–49, for the U.S. Bureau of the Census, 1947, and for the Economic Cooperation Administration, 1948. Since 1949, he has been at Carnegie Institute of Technology as professor of administration and head of the Department of Industrial Management. Simon is a member of Phi Beta Kappa and Sigma Xi. His principal area of research is organization theory. He is author of articles published in the American Sociological Review, Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Econometrica, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Philosophical Magazine, Public Administration Review, Public Management, and Quarterly Journal of Economics. He is the author of Fiscal Aspects of Metropolitan Consolidation, 1943, and Administrative Behavior, 1947, and co-author of the following: Measuring Municipal Activities, 1938; Determining Work Loads for Professional Staff in a Public Welfare Agency, 1941; Fire Risks and Fire Losses, 1943; Technique of Municipal Administration, 1945; and Public Administration, 1950. He has contributed to Economic Aspects of Atomic Power, 1950; Activity Analysis of Production and Allocation, 1951; and Studies in Econometric Method (forthcoming).
     See Cowles publications by Herbert A. Simon

WILLIAM B. SIMPSON (A.B. in mathematics, 1942, Reed College; M.A. in mathematical economics and mathematical statistics, 1943, Columbia University) joined the staff of the Cowles Commission as research associate and assistant director of research in May, 1948. He served as acting director of research from August 1950 through January 1951, and in July 1951, was appointed executive director of the Commission. Prior to his association with the Commission he was successively Fletcher Scholar, Kerr Scholar, and Whitcomb Scholar in economics and statistics at Reed College, 1938–42; was elected to Phi Beta Kappa, 1942; and was graduate resident scholar in economics, 1942–43, and on leave from university fellowship, 1943–46, Columbia University. He was research assistant in statistics, 1940–41 and teaching assistant in economics and statistics, 1941–42 at Reed College; prepared comparative wage studies in the lumber industry for the National Defense Mediation Board, winter, 1941; and revised the statistical techniques employed in forest management administration for the General Land Office of the Department of Interior, summer, 1942. During the war, he was a special agent for the Military Intelligence Division of the War Department, serving among other things as head of the banking and economic section of the Manila Counter Intelligence Office. In late 1945 and 1946 he had responsibilities in Japan in connection with the War Department and the War Crimes Commission and was a special representative of the Supreme Commander of Allied Powers on political affairs and labor relations in northern Honshu. From September 1946, until joining the Cowles Commission in 1948, he was engaged in research in economics as a fellow of the Social Science Research Council at the University of Chicago, except for temporary duty during late 1947 with the Legal Section in Tokyo as consultant to the Secretary of the Army. In September 1948, Simpson was elected secretary of the Econometric Society by the Council of the Society, and was re-elected to that position in subsequent years. In May 1952, he submitted his resignation as secretary of the Society, to become effective in October. In addition he has served as managing editor of Econometrica from January 1949, and as co-editor of that journal since June 1951.

MORTON L. SLATER (B.A., Swarthmore College, 1941; M.A., University of Wisconsin, 1942; Ph.D., Harvard University, 1949) was with the Cowles Commission as a research associate (with the rank of assistant professor) from January, 1950 through July, 1951. Earlier he was employed by Westinghouse Electric and Manufacturing Co. as a statistician in late 1942, after which he served in the U.S. Naval Reserve until May 1946. Prior to joining the Commission he was with Ordnance Research Group, No. 1 in Chicago as senior mathematician from September 1948 to December 1949. In addition, he taught mathematics at Illinois Institute of Technology in the fall of 1949. Slater is now with the Cornell Aeronautical Laboratory. Abstracts and papers have appeared in the Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society and Econometrica.
     See Cowles publications by Morton L. Slater

JOHN H. SMITH (Ph.D., University of Chicago, 1941) joined the staff as a research associate in September 1940. He was research and teaching assistant in the School of Business, 1936–41, and instructor in statistics, 1941–42, the University of Chicago. In 1942, he resigned from the Commission to accept a position as statistical consultant in the office of the chief statistician, Bureau of Labor Statistics. This position he held until June 1947, when he entered upon his present position as professor of statistics and chairman of the Department of Statistics of the American University. He is now a member of the Committee on Mathematical Training of Social Scientists, and the Committee on Training of Statisticians. Smith is author of two books, Tests of Significance and How to Use Them, 1939 and Statistical Deflation in the Analysis of Economic Series, 1941.

GERHARD STOLTZ (Cand. oecon., University of Oslo, 1947) became a research assistant of the Cowles Commission in October, 1949, in connection with the study of resource allocation. Concurrently he held a fellowship from the Norwegian Department of Education and the Nationalgaven til Chr. Michelsen Foundation, 1949–50. Earlier he engaged in research at the Chr. Michelsen Institue, Bergen, Norway, 1947–48, and at the Institute of Sociology, Oslo, 1948–49. He completed his work for the Commission on resource allocation in the summer of 1950 and moved to Stanford University. In the summer of 1951 he returned to the University of Oslo, Norway.

ROBERT H. STROTZ (A.B., 1942 and Ph.D., 1951; University of Chicago) became a research consultant of the Cowles Commission in 1951. He is associate professor of economics at Northwestern University and is currently engaged in research in welfare economics and the use of analog computing in economics. Strotz is program chairman for the winter meeting of the Econometric Society in 1952. Papers by him have been published in Econometrica, Southern Economic Journal, and Transactions of the American Institute of Electrical Engineers. He is co-author of Problems for Economic Analysis, 1948.
     See Cowles publications by Robert H. Strotz

ERLING SVERDRUP (Cand. act., University of Oslo, 1945) was a Rockefeller Fellow for the years 1949 and 1950, during which time he visited Columbia University and the Universities of California and Chicago. In addition he was a research fellow of the Cowles Commission, January through November 1950. Since that time he has been acting professor of actuarial mathematics and mathematical statistics at the University of Oslo, where earlier he worked on problems in mathematical statistics under Professor Frisch in 1946, and later taught, first as a lecturer, 1946–48, and then as an acting professor, 1948–49. He has published articles in Skandinavisk Aktuarietidskrift and Arhin föir Mathematik og Naturvidenskab.
     See Cowles publications by Erling Sverdrup

SAMI TEKINER, was fellow of the Department of Economics at the University of Chicago in 1944 and a research assistant for the Cowles Commission from July 1944 to June 1945. He participated in the studies on models for manufacturing industries and firms in the United States. Currently he is with European Steamship and Airways Agency in New York.

JAMES G. C. TEMPLETON (B.A., in applied mathematics University of Toronto, 1947; M.A. in mathematics, Princeton University, 1949) joined the staff in July 1950, as a research associate with responsibility for supervising the computational work of the Commission. Prior to this he spent three years at Princeton University as a graduate student in mathematical physics and mathematical statistics and as an assistant in instruction and research. In the summer of 1949 he attended the Institute for Numerical Analysis at Los Angeles. In July 1951, he left the Commission to become assistant professor of mathematics, University of Manitoba, at which institution he is now assistant professor of statistics.
     See Cowles publications by James G.C. Templeton

GERHARD TINTNER (Ph.D., University of Vienna, 1929) studied as a postgraduate student at Harvard University, Columbia University, University of California, Stanford University, Institut Henri Poincaré, and Cambridge University. He was on the staff of the Austrian Institute of Trade Cycle Research, 1936; research fellow in economics and statistics at the Cowles Commission, 1936–37; and instructor in econometrics at Colorado College, 1937. In 1937 he joined the staff of Iowa State College as assistant professor of economics and mathematics and now holds the rank of professor of economics, mathematics, and statistics. Tintner has also served as consultant to the Office of Strategic Services, 1942; as an associate of the Office of European Economic Research, 1943; and as a statistician with the Department of Agriculture, 1944. In 1948 he became a research associate in the Department of Applied Economics at Cambridge University. He lectured at several European universities while abroad and returned to Iowa State College in September 1949. He was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society, 1940; of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics, 1947 and of the American Statistical Association, 1951. He was a member of the editorial board, and is now an associate editor and book review editor of Econometrica. In addition, he is a member of the editorial board of Metroeconomica. Currently Tintner is interested in foundations of probability and statistical inference, multivariate analysis, computational problems in regression analysis and stochastic linear programming. Among the journals in which his articles have appeared are: Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Econometrica, Iowa State College Journal of Science, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Journal of Farm Economics, Journal of Political Economy, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Metroeconomica, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Revue d’economie politique, Schmoller’s Jahrbuch, Statistical and Social Inquiry Society of Ireland, Statistiche Vierteljahresschrift, and Zeitschrift fur Nationalökonomie. Three books have been published by Tintner: Prices in the Trade Cycle, 1935; The Variate Difference Method, 1940; and Econometrics, 1952.
     See Cowles publications by Gerhard Tintner

JAROSLAV TUZAR*, (M.A., 1945 and D.Sc., 1948; Charles University, Prague) a Rockefeller Fellow from Charles University, Prague, came to the Commission in November 1948, and remained until January, 1950. He was assistant professor, State Technical School, Prague, 1945–48 and research assistant in economics, State College for Social and Political Sciences, Prague, 1946–48. Currently he is engaged in research on statistical control of food manufacturing process and mathematical method in physics and economics. At present he is director of research for the Salerno Megowen Biscuit Co., Chicago.

ABRAHAM WALD (Ph.D. in mathematics, University of Vienna, 1930) joined the staff as a research fellow for one year in July, 1938, but went on leave of absence in September to accept a Carnegie fellowship at Columbia University, where he continued as lecturer in statistics. He was a native of Cluj, Rumania, and for several years a collaborator of Karl Menger at the University of Vienna and also of Oskar Morgenstern at the Institute for Business Cycle Research in Vienna. Before coming to the United States he held a fellowship from the Geneva Research Center in Switzerland, where he was engaged in the study of economic problems. His special topic of investigation during his connection with the Commission was index numbers and family incomes. In 1939 Wald was elected a Fellow of the Econometric Society. In 1948 he was president of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics and vice-president of the American Statistical Association. Wald taught at Columbia University for many years, becoming professor of mathematical statistics and head of the Department there. In 1950 he was invited by the Indian Government to lecture at Indian universities, but he met tragic death in an airplane crash in India. During his life he published more than 90 articles and books. Some of his articles have been published in American Mathematical Monthly, Econometrica, Ergebnisse eines Mathematischen Kolloquiums, and Zeitschrifr für Natökonomie. Among his books are Berechnung und Ausschaltung von Saisonschwankungen, 1936; Sequential Analysis, 1945; Statistical Decision Functions, 1950. He contributed to Statistical Inference in Dynamic Economic Models, 1950.

DICK VAN DONGEN TORMAN* was a guest of the Commission as a Rockefeller Fellow from Rotterdam in late 1947 and early 1948 while working on the measurement of production functions.

DANIEL WATERMAN (B.A., Brooklyn College, 1947; M.A., Johns Hopkins University, 1948) became a research associate of the Cowles Commission in July 1951, while completing his work for the Ph.D. degree at the University of Chicago. He is responsible for the direction of the computation laboratory of the Commission. Prior to joining the Commission he was an instructor at Brooklyn College, 1947; junior instructor at the Johns Hopkins University and University Scholar, 1947–48; and teaching assistant and Strong Fellow at the University of Chicago, 1948–51. During the summers of 1948 and 1949 he served as a mathematician in the Ballistics Research Laboratory. He is a member of Sigma Xi. In 1952–53 Waterman will be at the University of Vienna as a Fulbright Scholar. A paper by him has been published in the Transactions of the American Mathematical Society.
     See Cowles publication by Daniel Waterman

HAROLD H. WEIN was a research consultant in the Cowles Commission project on the economics of atomic power. He is the author of Chapter X, "Iron and Steel," Economic Aspects of Atomic Power, 1950. He is a member of the U.S. Department of Justice.

ISAMU YAMADA* was a guest of the Cowles Commission, March–April 1951. Yamada was commissioned by the Japanese government to study recent developments in econometrics and in social accounting in the United States. While he was at the Cowles Commission, he participated in staff seminars and meetings. He is professor of economics at Hitotsubashi University, Tokyo, Japan.

THEODORE O. YNTEMA (A.B., Hope College, 1921; A.M., 1922. and C.P.A., 1924, University of Illinois; Ph.D., University of Chicago, 1929) became director of research of the Cowles Commission at the time of the move to Chicago in September, 1939. He joined the faculty of the University of Chicago in 1923, and was professor of statistics in the School of Business, 1930–44, and professor of business and economic policy, 1944–49. He was economic consultant in the National Recovery Administration, 1934–35; head of economics And statistics in the Division of Industrial Materials of the Defense Commission, 1940; consulting economist and statistician for the United States Steel Corporation, 1938–40; consultant in the War Shipping Administration 1942; director of research of the Committee for Economic Development, 1942–49; consulting economist for Stein Roe & Farnham, 1945–49; consulting economist, Lord, Abbett & Co., 1946–49; consulting economist, Ford Motor Company, 1947–49; and consultant for the Economic Stabilization Agency, 1951. Since 1940 Yntema has been a director of the National Bureau of Economic Research. In 1949 Yntema joined Ford Motor Company as vice president-finance and since 1950 a director of the Company. He is a Fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Statistical Association. He is author of A Mathematical Reformulation of the Theory of International Trade, 1932, and co-author of Jobs and Markets, 1946. Yntema also directed most of the research leading to Volume I of TNEC Studies, published by the United States Steel Corporation, and from 1942–49 also planned and directed most of the research leading to the Research Reports of the Committee for Economic Development.

In addition to the above, the following also participated in seminars and staff meetings of the Commission during the July 1951–June 1952 period:

CLYDE H. COOMBS, psychologist at the University of Michigan
DON DALY, economist at the Department of Trade and Commerce, Canadian Government
ULF GRENANDER, mathematician and statistician on leave from the University of Stockholm
WILLIAM HAMBURGER, economist, University of Chicago
MELVILLE J. HERSKOVITS, anthropologist, Northwestern University
JACK HIRSCHLEIFER, economist at the RAND Corporation
CHARLES HOLT, Carnegie Institute of Technology
HERBERT D. LANDAHL, mathematical biophysicist, University of Chicago
ABBA P. LERNER, economist, Roosevelt College
I.M.D. LITTLE, economist, Oxford University
KARL MENGER, mathematician, Illinois Institute of Technology
JAMES G. MILLER, psychologist, University of Chicago
JOHN MILNOR, mathematician, Princeton University
HOWARD RAIFFA, mathematician, University of Michigan
RONALD W. SHEPHARD, mathematical economist, RAND Corporation
ROBERT M. THRALL, mathematician, University of Michigan
G.S. WATSON, mathematical statistician, University of Melbourne

Cowles Commission Seminars, 1951–1952

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