DECENNIAL REPORT, 1932–1941
STAFF BIBLIOGRAPHY

EDWARD N. CHAPMAN (1936–1941)

"Suppose there IS a War," Barron's, Vol. 19, No.6, Feb. 6, 1939, p. 7.

"Markets Highly Selective in Wartime," Barron's, Vol. 19, No. 43, Oct. 23, 1939, p. 20.

(With C.H. Boissevain) "Leucocyte Count and Recovery from Tuberculosis," The American Review of Tuberculosis, Vol. 44, July 1941, pp. 58–72.

"Growth Stocks and the Investor," Baron’s, Vol. 21, October 6, 1941, pp. 3–4; October 13, p. 7; October 20, p. 18; October 27, p. 13; November 3, p. 13; November 10, p. 8; November 17, p. 20; November 24, p. 13; December 1, p. 13; December 8, p. 13; December 15, p. 13; December 22, p. 20; December 29, p. 20.


ALFRED COWLES
(1932– )

Common-Stock Indexes, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1938; second edition, 1939. xii + 499 pp.

"Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?" presented at Cincinnati, December 31, 1932, before the Econometric Society and the American Statistical Association (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 1, April 1933, pp. 212–13); published in Econometrica, Vol. 1, July, 1933, pp. 309–24.

"The Meeting of the Econometric Society in Cincinnati, Ohio, December, 1932," Econometrica, Vol. 1, April 1933, pp. 209–17.

"The Meeting of the Econometric Society in Chicago, June, 1933," Econometrica, Vol. 1, October 1933, pp. 431–44.

"The Meetings of the Econometric Society in Philadelphia and Boston, December, 1933," Econometrica, Vol. 2, April 1934, pp. 204–20.

(With Edward N. Chapman) "The Effect of Climate on Pulmonary Tuberculosis: A Statistical Study," presented at Pittsburgh, Deco 28, 1934, before Sections K and N of the American Association for the Advancement of Science; published as "A Statistical Study of Climate in Relation to Pulmonary Tuberculosis," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 30, September 1935, pp. 517–56.

"Practical Problems in the Methodology of Multiple Correlation Analysis," presented at Colorado Springs, June 24, 1935, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 3, October 1935, p. 476).

"Multiple Correlation Analysis of Intercorrelated Variates," presented at Colorado Springs. July 1935, before the Cowles Commission First Annual Research Conference.

"Effects of Building Activity and Other Factors on Security Prices," presented at St. Louis, January 3, 1936, before the Econometric Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 4, April 1936, pp. 190–91).

"Evidence of Structure in Common Stock Prices," presented at Colorado Springs. August 7, 1936, before the Cowles Commission Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Abstracts, pp. 97–99).

(With Herbert E. Jones) "Some a Posteriori Probability Considerations of Stock Market Action," presented at Chicago, December 29, 1936, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, April 1937, p. 190); published as "Some a Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action," Econometrica, Vol. 5, July 1937, pp. 280–94.


FORREST DANSON
(1932– )

(With Herbert E. Jones) "Getting the Most in Tax Exempts," Barron's, Vol. 19, No. 30, July 24, 1939, p. 3.


HAROLD T. DAVIS
(1932– )

Tables of the Higher Mathematical Functions, Vol. I, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1933. xiii + 377 pp.

Tables of the Higher Mathematical Functions, Vol. II, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1935. xiii + 391 pp.

A Course in General Mathematics, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1935. xi + 316 pp.

(With W. F. C. Nelson) The Elements of Statistics, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1935. xi + 424 pp. Second edition, 1937. xii + 434 pp.

The Theory of Linear Operators, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press. 1936. xiv + 628 pp.

College Algebra, New York, Prentice-Hall, 1940. xiii + 423 pp.

The Theory of Econometrics, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1941. xiv + 482 pp.

The Analysis of Economic Time Series, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1941. xiv + 620 pp.

"New Technique in the Analysis of Trend Lines," presented at Indianapolis, May 7, 1932, before the Indiana Section of the Mathematical Association of America.

"The Perturbation Problem for Economic Series," presented at Syracuse, June, 1932, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 1, January, 1933, p. 100).

"A Technique for the Study of the Interaction of Economic Series," presented by title at Ames. November 26, 1932, before the American Mathematical Society.

"Harmonic Interaction of Economic Series," presented at Atlantic City, December 26, 1932, before the Econometric Society and Section K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science ( abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 1, April 1933, p. 205).

"The Predictable Elements in Economic Series," presented at Columbus, April 6, 1933, before the Ohio Section of the Mathematical Association of America.

"Contributions to the Theory of the Harmonic Analysis of Economic Series," presented at Chicago, June 29, 1933, before the Econometric Society and Section K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 1, October 1933, pp. 434–35).

"Polynomial Approximations by the Method of Least Squares," Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 4, August 1933, pp. 155–95.

"Some Statistical Aspects of Random Series," presented at Philadelphia. December 28, 1933, before the Econometric Society and the American Statistical Association (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 2, April 1934, pp. 213–14).

"Properties of the Polygamma Function," presented at Lafayette, May 12, 1934, before the Indiana Section of the Mathematical Association of America.

"Can Man's Group Activity Be Measured?" presented at Indianapolis, November 30, 1934, before the Central Association of Science and Mathematics Teachers.

"How Periodic Elements Are Discovered in Statistical Series," presented at Indianapolis, November 30, 1934, before the Mathematics Section of the Central Association of Science and Mathematics Teachers.

"Statistical Proofs of Periodicity in Economic Series," presented at Pittsburgh. December 28, 1934, before the Econometric Society, the American Mathematical Society, the Mathematical Association of America,and Sections A and K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

"An Extension to Polygamma Functions of a Theorem of Gauss," Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 41, April 1935, pp. 243–47.

"Some Periodic Aspects of the Stock Market," presented at Colorado Springs, June 24, 1935, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 3, October 1935, p. 474).

"The Statistical Validity of Harmonic Analysis," presented at Colorado Springs, July, 1935, before the Cowles Commission First Annual Research Conference.

"Report of the Meeting of the Econometric Society, Colorado Springs, June 22–24, 1935," Econometrica, Vol. 3, October 1935, pp. 473–76.

"Statistical Validity of the Forty-Month Cycle in Stock Prices," presented at St. Louis, Jan. 2, 1936, before the Econometric Society and the American Association for the Advancement of Science (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 4, April 1936, pp. 189–90).

"Mathematics and Social Phenomena," presented at North Manchester, May 1, 1936, before the Indiana Section of the Mathematical Association of America.

"Significance of Analysis of Variance of Time Series," presented at Colorado Springs, August 7, 1936, before the Cowles Commission Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Abstracts, pp. 99–102).

"Significance Tests for Periodogram Analysis with Application to Prices of Common Stocks," presented at Colorado Springs, August 8, 1936, before the Cowles Commission Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Abstracts, pp. 102–03).

"The Application of Functionals in Economics," presented at Denver, June 24, 1937, before the Econometric Society and Sections A and K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, October 1937, p. 384).

"The Econometric Problem," presented at Colorado Springs, June 28, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 11–13).

"The Fonctionelle Nature of Utility," presented at Colorado Springs, July 16, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 73–79).

"Mathematical Adventures in Social Science," presented at State College, Pennsylvania, September 7, 1937, before the Mathematical Association of America; published in American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 45, February 1938, pp. 93–109.

"The Pareto Distribution of Income," presented at Atlantic City, December 28, 1937, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 184–85).

(With Herbert E. Jones) "Some Results of the Theory of Random Series," presented at Indianapolis, December 30, 1937, before the American Mathematical Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

"The Centennial of Cournot's Theory of Riches," presented at Indianapolis, December 30, 1937, before the History of Science Society and Section L of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

"Table I, Values of J0(x) and J1(x) from 15.50 to 25.00," "Table II, Zeros of J0(x) and J1(x)," in British Association Mathematical Tables, VI, Bessel Functions, Part I, Cambridge University Press, 1937, pp. 162–170, 171–73.

"The Place of Mathematics in the Modern World," presented at Chicago, February 18, 1938, before a joint meeting of the Men's and Women's Mathematical Clubs of Chicago.

"Mathematical Adventures in Social Science," presented at Pittsburgh, February 23, 1938, before the University of Pittsburgh Chapter of Sigma Xi.

"Can Economic Phenomena be Measured?" presented at Bethlehem, March 14, 1938, before the Lehigh University Chapter of Pi Mu Epsilon.

"Cournot — Pioneer in Scientific Economics," presented at Colorado Springs, July 5, 1938, before the Cowles Commission Fourth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 15–16).

"The Significance of the Curve of Income," presented at Colorado Springs, July 6, 1938, before the Cowles Commission Fourth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 19–22).

"Social Implications of the Pareto Distribution of Special Abilities," presented at Richmond, December 28, 1938, before Section K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

"Some Lessons from the Equation of Exchange," presented at Detroit, Dec. 30, 1938, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 7, April, 1939, pp. 189–90).

"Mathematical Economics," presented at the Armour Institute, Chicago, January 12, 1939.

"The Philosophy of Science," presented at Ames, April 21, 1939, before the Iowa Academy of Science; published in Proceedings of the Iowa Academy of Science for 1939, Vol. 46, pp. 58–69.

"The Theory of Utility in Economics," presented at Iowa State College, Ames. April 24, 1939.

"The Theory of Economic Time Series," presented at Iowa State College, Ames, April 24, 1939.

"Random Numbers," presented at Galesburg, May 13, 1939, before the Illinois Section of the Mathematical Association of America.

"The Theory of Random Numbers," presented at Chicago, May 16, 1939, before the Mathematical Club of the University of Chicago.

"The Postulate of Determinism in Economics," presented at Evanston, May 20, 1939, before the Chaos Club.

"Problems in the Theory of Business Cycles," presented at Colorado Springs, July 3, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 13–16).

"Relationships between the Distribution of Income and Total Real Income," presented at Colorado Springs, July 24, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 76–77).

"The Money Factor in Trends of Trade," presented at Colorado Springs, July 28, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 92–93).

"Some Methods in the Analysis of Lag Effects," presented at Philadelphia, December 27, 1939, before the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

"The Mathematical Analysis of Social Patterns," presented at Bloomington, May 10, 1940, before the Illinois Section of the Mathematical Association of America (abstract in American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 47, November 1940, p. 600).

"Dynamics of the Business Cycle..' presented at Colorado Springs, July 1, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 11–13).

"The Economic Interpretation of History," presented at Colorado Springs, July 26, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 89–91).

"The Mathematical Interpretation of History," presented at Cleveland, November 22, 1940, before the general section of the Central Association of Science and Mathematics Teachers.

"Mathematics and the Social Sciences," presented at Cleveland, November 22, 1940, before the mathematics section of the Central Association of Science and Mathematics Teachers.

"The Place of Statistics in Science," presented at Evanston, February 10, 1941, before the Northwestern University Chapter of Sigma Kappa Epsilon.

"Functionals in the Theory of Economics," presented at Notre Dame, February 28, 1941, before the Fifth Annual Mathematical Symposium of the University of Notre Dame.

"The History of Calculation," presented at Evanston. March 13, 1941, before the Physics Club of Northwestern University.

"The Economic Theory of History," presented at Rockford, April 9, 1941, before the Rockford Division of the Institute of Electrical Engineers.

"The Mathematical Theory of History," presented at Chicago, April 18, 1941, before the Men’s Mathematics Club of Chicago.

"Lucretius and His Message to the Modern World," presented at Evanston, April 23, 1941, before the Eta Sigma Phi classical fraternity.

"The Statistics of Time Series," in Mathematical Monographs, edited by R.D. Curtiss, Northwestern University Studies. No. I in Mathematics and Physics Series, October 1941, pp. 47–85.

"Mysteries of the Fourth Dimension," presented at Chicago, December 3, 1941, before Carl Schurz Junior College.

"The Theory of Runs in Random Data," presented at New York, December 27, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.


JOEL DEAN
(1939– )

The Management Council Profession, Indiana University Publications, Social Science Series No. 2, 1940, Bloomington. 1940. 89 pp.

Statistical Cost Functions of a Hosiery Mill, Studies in Business Administration. The School of Business, The University of Chicago, Vol. II, No. 4, Chicago. 1941. 116 pp.

The Relation of Cost to Output for a Leather Belt Shop, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research. Technical Paper No. 2, 1941. 72 pp.

"Statistical Cost Curves in Various Industries," presented at Philadelphia, Dec. 29, 1939, before the American Economic Association and the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 8, April. 1940, pp. 188–89).

"Alternative Statistical Methods for Estimating Marginal Cost Functions," presented at Colorado Springs, July 5. 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 24–26).

"Indexes of Prices Farmers Pay," presented at Chicago, December 27, 1940, before the American Statistical Association.

"Statistical Cost-Curves and Price Policy," presented at Notre Dame, March 1, 1941, before the Fifth Annual Mathematical Symposium of the University of Notre Dame.

(With Mary Hilton Wise) "An Appraisal of Index Numbers of Prices Farmers Pay," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 36, June. 1941, pp. 210–18.

"The Role of Cost Functions in Price Administration," presented at New York, December 29, 1941, before the American Economic Association and the Econometric Society.


HERBERT E. JONES
(1935– )

"The Economics of Overhead Costs with Application to Pumping," presented at Colorado Springs, July 1935, before the Cowles Commission First Annual Research Conference.

"Meetings of the Econometric Society in New York City, December 1935, and St. Louis. January, 1936," Econometrica, Vol. 4, April 1936, pp. 184–92.

"The Nature of Regression Functions in the Correlation Analysis of Time Series," presented in preliminary form at Colorado Springs, July 21, 1936, before the Cowles Commission Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 43–44), and in final form at Chicago. December 28, 1936, before the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics; published in Econometrica, Vol. 5, October 1937, pp. 305–25.

(With Alfred Cowles) "Some a Posteriori Probability Considerations of Stock Market Action," presented at Chicago, December 29, 1936, before the Econometric Society ( abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, April 1937, p. 190); published as "Some a Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action," Econometrica, Vol. 5, July 1937, pp. 280–294.

"Some Geometrical Considerations in the General Theory of Fitting Lines and Planes," Metron, Vol. 13, February 28, 1937, pp. 21–30.

"The Theory of Runs as Applied to Time Series," presented at Colorado Springs, July 2, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 33–36).

(With Harold T. Davis) "Some Results of the Theory of Random Series," presented at Indianapolis, December 30, 1937, before the American Mathematical Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

(With Forrest Danson) "Getting the Most in Tax Exempts," Barron's, Vol. 19, No. 30, July 24, 1939, p. 3.


OSCAR LANGE
(1939– )

"Saving in Process Analysis," Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 53, August 1939, pp. 620–622.

"Is the American Economy Contracting?" American Economic Review, Vol. 29, September 1939, pp. 503–13.

"The Neo-Classical School in Economics," The Encyclopaedia of Political Science (in Polish), Warsaw, 1939, Vol. IV, pp. 1–13.

"Quantification: the Quest for Precision," round-table paper given at the University of Chicago, December 1, 1939, reported in Eleven Twenty-Six: A Decade of Social Science Research, Louis Wirth, editor, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1940, pp. 158–162, 191–193.

"The Theory of Technological Unemployment," presented at Colorado Springs, July 22, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 68–72).

"Complementarity and Interrelations of Shifts in Demand," The Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 8, October 1940, pp. 58–63

"Economic Aspects," in Economic Mobilization, Washington, American Council on Public Affairs, 1940, pp. 12–28.

"The Theory of Interest: A Synthetic Approach," presented at Toronto, December 9, 1940, at the University of Toronto.

"Price Flexibility, Interest, and Full Employment," presented at New Orleans, December 28, 1940, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 9, April. 1941, pp. 176–77).

"The Theory of Technological Unemployment," presented at Notre Dame, Feb. 28, 1941, before the Fifth Annual Mathematical Symposium of the University of Notre Dame.

"The Theory of Imperialism," presented at Madison, March 1941, before the University of Wisconsin.

"Derivation of Elasticities of Demand and Supply: A Direct Method," presented at Chicago, Sept. 4, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 10, January 1942, pp. 93–95).

"The Foundation of Welfare Economics," presented at Chicago, September 4, 1941, before the Sixth International Congress for the Unity of Science.

"The Calculus of Elasticities and Its Application in Economic Theory," presented at Chicago, October 17, 1941, before the Mathematical Biophysics Seminar of the University of Chicago.

"The Stability of Economic Equilibrium," presented at New York, December 28, 1941, before the Econometric Society.


DICKSON H. LEAVENS
(1936– )

Silver Money, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1939. xix + 439 pp.

"The Accumulation of the Precious Metals in India and China," presented at Colorado Springs, July 15, 1936, before the Cowles Commission Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 30–32).

"Silver at the Second Session of the Seventy-fourth Congress," Finance and Commerce, Shanghai, Vol. 28, July 29, 1936, pp. 125–27.

"The Silver Clause in China," American Economic Review, Vol. 26, December 1936, pp. 650–59.

"Silver [Review of 1936]," Engineering and Mining Journal, Vol. 138, February 1937, pp. 55–56.

"Report of the Chicago Meeting [of the Econometric Society], December 28–30, 1936," Econometrica, Vol. 5, April 1937, pp. 184–97.

"Drawings from Rectangular Distributions," presented at Colorado Springs, July 2, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 31–32).

"Report of the Denver Meeting [of the Econometric Society], June 24–26, 1937," Econometrica, Vol. 5, October 1937, pp. 384–392.

"Silver at the First Session of the Seventy-fifth Congress," Financial News, Bombay, Vol. 5, No.42, October 23, 1937, p. 14; also published in Finance and Commerce, Shanghai, Vol. 30, November 3, 1937, p. 345.

"Five Years of American Silver Policy," presented at Atlantic City, Dec. 27, 1937, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, p. 183); published as "Five Years of Silver Subsidy," The Annalist, Vol. 51, January 7, 1938, pp. 4–5.

"Silver [Review of 1937]," Engineering and Mining Journal, Vol. 139, February 1938, pp. 36, 37, 40.

"Report of the Atlantic City and Indianapolis Meetings [of the Econometric Society], December 27–30, 1937," Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 180–92.

"International Factors in the Postwar Silver Market," presented at Albuquerque, April 25, 1938, before the Southwestern Division, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

"A Bead-Sampling Machine for Use in the Class Room," presented at Detroit, December 28, 1938, before the American Statistical Association, and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

"Silver [Review of 1938]," Engineering and Mining Journal, Vol. 140, February 1939, pp. 37, 38, 46.

"Report of the Detroit Meeting [of the Econometric Society], December 27–30, 1938," Econometrica, Vol. 7, April 1939, pp. 167–90.

"Silver at the First Session of the Seventy-Sixth U. S. Congress," Finance and Commerce, Shanghai, Vol. 34, September 13, 1939, pp. 229–30; also published in abridged form in Financial News, Bombay, Vol. 7, September 9, 1939, pp. 17–18.

(With John J. Croston) "Gold and Silver," chapter in The Mineral Industry during 1938, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1939, pp. 189–303.

"Silver and the War: Supplies Ample; Recurrence of 1915–1919 Boom not Likely," The Annalist, Vol. 55, January 4, 1940; p. 7.

"Report of the Philadelphia Meeting [of the Econometric Society], December 27–29, 1939," Econometrica, Vol. 8, April 1940, pp. 176–92.

(With William J. Hail) "Planetary Groupings Recorded in China," Popular Astronomy, Vol. 48, June 1940, pp. 292–95.

(With John J. Croston) "Gold and Silver," chapter in The Mineral Industry during 1939, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1940, pp. 191–286.

"Rupee Circulation in India," The American Economic Review, Vol. 31, March 1941, pp. 87–90.

"Report of the Chicago and New Orleans Meetings [of the Econometric Society], December 27–30, 1940," Econometrica, Vol. 9, April 1941, pp. 165–184.

"Debates on Silver in the American Congress," Finance & Commerce, Shanghai, Vol. 37, May 14, 1941, pp. 488–89; also published in abridged form in Financial News, Bombay, Vol. 9, No. 10, March 8, 1941, p. 7.

(With John J. Croston) "Gold and Silver," chapter in The Mineral Industry during 1940. New York, McGraw-Hill, 1941, pp. 215–91.

(With Theodore O. Yntema) "An Appraisal of the 1940 [Census] Sampling Scheme," presented at New York, December 29, 1941, before the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.


H. GREGG LEWIS
(1939– )

An Analysis of Changes in the Demand for Steel and in Steel Prices — 19361939. New York, United States Steel Corporation, 1939. 61 pp.

A Statistical Analysis of the Demand for Steel, 19191938, New York, United States Steel Corporation, 1939. 52 pp.

The above two pamphlets were included in United States Steel Corporation T.N.E.C. Papers, 1940, pp. 7–71 and pp. 165–221; and were reprinted in Hearings Before the Temporary National Economic Committee, Part 26, Washington, 1940, as Exhibit No. 1412, pp. 13942–81, Exhibit No.1411, pp. 13913–42.

(With Paul H. Douglas) "Some Problems in the Measurement of Income Elasticities," Econometrica, Vol. 7, July 1939, pp. 208–20.

"The Demand for Steel," presented at Colorado Springs, July 2, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 15–18).

"The Nature of the Demand for Steel," presented at Chicago, December 27, 1940, before the American Statistical Association and the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 9, April 1941, p. 165); published in Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 36, March, 1941, pp. 110–15.

"The Outlook," in Economic Mobilization, Washington, American Council on Public Affairs, 1940, pp. 37–43.

"On the Probability Distribution of the Partial-Elasticity Coefficient," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 36, September 1941, pp. 413–16.


FRANCIS McINTYRE
(1937–1940)

"Monopolistic Elements in Pricing: The Domestic-Export Spread," presented at Colorado Springs, July 7, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 45–46).

.'The Cowles Commission Stock Indexes, 1871–1937," presented at Boulder, November 26, 1937, before the Colorado–Wyoming Social Science Association.

"Price Discrimination between Two Markets under Imperfect Competition and Monopoly," presented at Atlantic City, December 27, 1937, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 180–81).

"International Aspects of the Copper Industry," presented at Albuquerque, Apr. 25, 1938, before the Southwestern Division, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

"Factors Determining Domestic and Foreign Copper Consumption," presented at Colorado Springs, July 8, 1938, before the Cowles Commission Fourth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 29–30).

"The Problem of the Stock Price Index Number," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 33, September 1938, pp. 557–63.

"The Nature and Achievements of Foundations for Economic Research in the United States," presented at Stanford University, October 20, 1938.

"The Effect of the Undistributed Profits Tax upon the Distribution of Corporate Earnings — A Statistical Appraisal," presented at Detroit, December 28, 1938, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 7, April, 1939, pp. 176–77); published in Econometrica, Vol. 7, October, 1939, pp. 336–48.

"The Adaptation of Index-Number Construction to Punched-Card Equipment," presented at Colorado Springs, July 13, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 43–45) .

"Durable Goods and the Business Cycle," presented at Colorado Springs, July 17, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 52–54).

"Corporate Earnings in Durable Goods Industries in Prosperity and Depression," presented at Philadelphia, December 28, 1939, before the American Statistical Association.

"Some Uses of Iso-Outlay Curves in Economic Analysis," presented at Colorado Springs, July 19, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 64–66).

"The Effect of the Undistributed Profits Tax: A Reply," Econometrica, Vol. 8, October 1940, pp. 357–60.

"The Dilemma of the Conservative," presented at Cleveland, November 22, 1940, before the Cleveland Chapter of the American Statistical Association.

"Wholesale Price Indexes," presented at Chicago, Dec. 27, 1940, before the American Statistical Association (published in Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 36, June 1941, pp. 185–90).


HORST MENDERSHAUSEN
(1938–1939)

"On the Significance of Professor Douglas' Production Function," Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 143–53.

"The Definition of 'Equal Well-Being' in Frisch's Double-Expenditure Method," Econometrica, Vol. 6, July 1938, pp. 285–86.

"’Clearing Variates' in Confluence Analysis," presented at Colorado Springs, July 7, 1938, before the Cowles Commission Fourth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 24–26) ; published in Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 34, March 1939, pp. 93–105.

"The Relationship between Income and Savings of American Metropolitan Families," presented at Detroit, December 29, 1938, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 7, April 1939, pp. 180–81); published in American Economic Review, Vol. 29, September 1939, pp. 521–37.

"Differences in Consumers' Savings between American Communities of Different Size and Location," presented at Milwaukee, June 19, 1939, before Section K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

"On the Measurement of the Degree of Inequality of Income Distributions," presented at Colorado Springs, July 19, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 63–65).

"On the Significance of Professor Douglas. Production Function: A Correction," Econometrica, Vol. 7, October 1939, p. 362.

"Eliminating Changing Seasonals by Multiple Regression Analysis," Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 21, November 1939, pp. 171–77.

"Changing Methods of Diverting the National Income to War Purposes," presented at Philadelphia, December 28. 1939, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 8. April 1940, pp. 179–80).


JACOB L. MOSAK
(1939– )

An Analysis of the Demand for Steel in the Automobile Industry. New York, United States Steel Corporation, 1939. 28 pp. Included in United States Steel Corporation T.N.E.C. Papers, 1940, pp. 73–103, and reprinted in Hearings before the Temporary National Economic Committee, Part 26, Washington, 1940, as Exhibit No. 1413, pp. 13981–98.

General Equilibrium Theory in International Trade, thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Chicago, 1941 ( typed).

"The Least-Squares Standard Error of the Coefficient of Elasticity of Demand," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 34, June 1939, pp. 353–61.

"Some Theoretical Implications of the Statistical Analysis of Demand and Cost Functions for Steel," presented at Chicago, December 27, 1940, before the American Statistical Association and the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 9, April 1941, p. 167); published in Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 36, March 1941, pp. 100–09.

"The General-Equilibrium Theory of International Trade," presented at Chicago, December 28, 1940, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 9, April 1941, p. 171).

"Wage Increases and Unemployment," American Economic Review, Vol. 31, June 1941, pp. 330–32.

"On the Workings of a General Equilibrium System," presented at Chicago, September 4, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 10, January 1942, pp. 93).


WILLIAM F.C. NELSON
(1932–1936)

(With Harold T. Davis) The Elements of Statistics. Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1935. xi + 424 pp. Second edition. 1937. xii + 434 pp.

"A New Index of Investment Experience in American Industrial and Public Utility Common Stocks, 1872–1906," presented at Berkeley, June 22, 1934, before the Econometric Society, the American Statistical Association, and Section K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 2, October 1934, pp. 444).

"Painting and Prices," presented at Colorado Springs, June 24, 1935, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vo1. 3, October 1935, pp. 475–76).


CHARLES F. ROOS
(1934–1937)

Dynamic Economics, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press. 1934. xvi + 275 pp.

NRA Economic Planning. Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1937. xxii + 596 pp.

"Economic Theory of the Shorter Work Week," presented at Pittsburgh, December 28, 1934, before the Econometric Society; published in Econometrica, Vol. 3, January 1935, pp. 21–39.

"What Do Time-Series Correlation Coefficients Show?" presented at Pittsburgh, Dec. 28, 1934, before the Econometric Society, the American Mathematical Society, the Mathematical Association of America, and Sections A and K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

"Labor vs. Machine Cost: Some Theoretical and Statistical Studies of Replacement of Men by Machines," presented at Pittsburgh, December 29, 1934, before the Econometric Society and Sections K and M of the American Association for the Advancement of Science.

"Cost Experiments of the NRA," presented at Colorado Springs, June 24, 1935, before the Econometric Society.

"Meetings of the Econometric Society in Chicago and Pittsburgh, December, 1934," Econometrica, Vol. 3, July 1935, pp. 345–52.

"Lag Analysis with Special Reference to the Building Industry," presented at Colorado Springs, July, 1935, before the Cowles Commission First Annual Research Conference.

"Annual Survey of Statistical Information: Capital Formation and the Flow of National Income in the United States," Econometrica, Vol. 3, October 1935, pp. 366–75.

"Effects of Credit, Building Costs, and Rent on Building Activity," presented at St. Louis. January 3, 1936, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 4, April 1936, p. 191).

"Some Economic Effects of Wage Regulation on Interstate Trade," presented at Colorado Springs, July 25, 1936, before the Cowles Commission Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Abstracts. pp. 60–62).

"A General Invariant Criterion of Fit for Lines, Planes, and Functions Expandable in Series, Where All Variates Are Subject to Error," presented in preliminary form at Colorado Springs, August 5, 1936, before the Cowles Commission Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Abstracts, pp. 93–95), and in final form at Chicago. December 28, 1936, before the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics; published as "A General Invariant Criterion of Fit for Lines and Planes Where All Variables Are Subject to Error," Metron, Vol. 13, 1937, pp. 3–20.

"Annual Survey of Statistical Techniques: The Correlation and Analysis of Time Series-Part II," Econometrica, Vol. 4, October 1936, pp. 368–81.

"New Indexes of Stock Prices and Yields and Their Relation to the Theories of Capital and Savings," presented at Chicago, December 28, 1936, before the Econometric Society, the American Statistical Association, and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, April 1937, pp. 184–85).

"Measuring Economic Impacts," presented at Denver, June 25, 1937, before the Econometric Society, Section K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, the American Sociological Society, and the Sociological Research Association (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, October 1937, pp. 388–89).

"The Relation of Stock Prices to Earnings and Other Factors," presented at Colorado Springs, June 29, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research Conference, abstract in Conference Report, pp. 17–19).

"The Dynamics of the Security Market." presented at Colorado Springs, July 1, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 26–31).

"Dynamics of the Security Markets," presented at Atlantic City, December 28, 1937, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 185–86).

(With Victor S. von Szeliski) "Economic Balance and Its Relation to Production and Pricing Problems," presented at Atlantic City, December 29, 1937, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 189–90).


JOHN H. SMITH
(1940– )

Statistical Deflation in the Analysis of Economic Series, thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at the University of Chicago, privately printed, Chicago, 1941. vi + 123 pp.

Added Column Method for Computing Multiple Correlation Constants. The University of Chicago Bookstore, 1941. 33 pp.

"The Use of Weighted Regressions in the Analysis of Economic Series," presented at Colorado Springs, July 16, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 53–55).

"Curve Fitting by Cumulative Addition," presented at Chicago, September 3, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 10, January 1942, pp. 91–92).

"Confidence Intervals for the Unknown Median of Any Type of Universe," presented at New York, December 27, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.


GERHARD TINTNER
(1936–1937)

"A Note on Distribution of Income over Time," Econometrica, Vol. 4, January 1936, pp. 60–66.

"Internationale Konjunkturforschung," Der Oesterreichische Volkswirt, Vol. 28, July 4, 1936, pp. 783–84.

"Expectations and the Statistical Theory of Errors," presented at Chicago, December 29, 1936, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, April 1937, pp. 189–90).

"Monopoly over Time," Econometrica, Vol. 5, April 1937, pp. 160–70.

"The Economic Meaning of Functionals," presented at Denver, June 24, 1937, before the Econometric Society and Sections A and K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science ( abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, October 1937, p. 385).

"The Maximization of Utility over Time," presented at Colorado Springs, July 21, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 91–93); published in Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 154–58.

"A Dynamic Theory of Duopoly: A Problem in Econometrics," presented at Iowa City, November 26, 1937, before the American Mathematical Society (abstract in Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 44, January 1938, p. 29).

"The Definition and Dynamic Significance of Randomness in Time Series," presented at Atlantic City, December 27, 1937, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, p. 181).


ABRAHAM WALD
(1938–1939)

"The Approximative Determination of Indifference Surfaces by Means of Engel Curves." presented at Colorado Springs, July 12, 1938, before the Cowles Commission Fourth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 39–41); published in Econometrica, Vol. 8, April 1940, pp. 144–75.

"Generalization of the Inequality of Markoff," Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 9, December 1938, pp. 244–55.

"A Contribution to the Theory of Statistical Estimation," presented at Detroit, December 27, 1938, before the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 10, March 1939, pp. 86–87).

"Criteria for a Constant Preference Scale Expressed in Terms of Engel Curves," presented at Detroit, December 29, 1938, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 7, April 1939, pp. 179–80).

"Lower and Upper Limits of a Distribution Function Determined by Moments and Inequalities Satisfied by Moments," presented at New York, February 25, 1939, before the American Mathematical Society (abstract in Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 45, March 1939, p. 238).

(With J. Wolfowitz) "Confidence Limits for Continuous Distribution Functions." presented at New York, Feb. 25, 1939, before the American Mathematical Society (abstract in Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 45, March 1939, pp. 232–33); published in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 10, June 1939, pp. 105–18.

"Long Cycles as a Result of Repeated Integration," American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 46, March 1939, pp. 136–41.

"The Fitting of Straight Lines if Both Variables Are Subject to Error," presented at Colorado Springs, July 6, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 25–28); published in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 11, September 1940, pp. 284–300.

"Limits of a Distribution Function Determined by Absolute Moments," Transactions of the American Mathematical Association, Vol. 46, September 1939, pp. 280–306.

"A New Formula for the Index of Cost of Living," Econometrica, Vol. 7, October 1939, pp. 319–31.

"Contributions to the Theory of Statistical Estimation and Testing Hypotheses," Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 10, December 1939, pp. 299–326.

"A Note on the Analysis of Variance with Unequal Class Frequencies," presented by title at Philadelphia, December 27, 1939, before the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 11, March 1940, pp. 114–15); published in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 11, March 1940, pp. 96–100.

(With J. Wolfowitz) "On a Test whether Two Samples Are from the Same Population," presented at Philadelphia, December 27, 1939, before the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 11, March 1940, p. 112); published in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 11, June, 1940, pp. 147–62.


THEODORE O. YNTEMA
(1939– )

Professor Yntema planned and directed the research leading to the following papers published first in pamphlet form in 1939 and then collected in United States Steel Corporation T.N.E.C. Papers, 1940, Vol. 1, 411 pp. They were also reprinted as exhibits in Hearings before the Temporary National Economic Committee, Congress of the United States, Seventy-sixth Congress, Third Session, Pursuant to Public Resolution No. 113 (Seventy-fifth Congress). Part 26. Iron and Steel Industry, United States Steel Corporation Studies, Prices and Costs. January 23, 24, and 25, 1940. Washington, Government Printing Office, 1940, pp. 13585–14128. T.N.E.C. Exhibit numbers and pages in the Hearings are given in parentheses.

No.1. "An Analysis of Changes in the Demand for Steel and in Steel Prices, 1936–1939," pp. 7–71 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No.1412, pp. 13942–81).

No.2 "An Analysis of the Demand for Steel in the Automobile Industry," pp. 73–103 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1413, pp. 13981–98).

No.3. "An Analysis of the Demand for Steel in the Railroad Industry, " pp. 105–35 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1414, pp. 13999–14016).

No.4. "An Analysis of the Demand for Steel in the Container Industry," pp. 137–64 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1415, pp. 14016–32).

No.5. "A Statistical Analysis of the Demand for Steel, 1919–1938," pp. 165–221 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1411, pp. 13913–42).

No.6. "An Analysis of Steel Prices, Volume and Costs Controlling Limitations on Price Reductions," pp. 223–302 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1416, pp. 14032–82).

No.7. "An Analysis of Steel Prices, Volume and Costs Controlling Limitations on Price Reductions — Summary," pp. 303–23 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1417, pp. 14082–94).

No.8. "The Distribution of Steel to Major Consuming Industries," pp. 325–36 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 2180, pp. 14095–101).

No.9. "Indexes of Mill-Net Yields on Products Shipped by United States Steel Corporation Subsidiaries," pp. 337–54 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 2181, pp. 14101–09).

"Competitive Norms in Durable-Goods Industries," presented at Colorado Springs, July 10, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 32–34).

"Quantification: the Quest for Precision," round-table paper given at the University of Chicago, December 1, 1939, reported in Eleven Twenty-Six: A Decade of Social Science Research, Louis Wirth, editor, Chicago, The University of Chicago Press, 1940, pp. 170–72, 182.

"Organization for National Defense," presented at Colorado Springs. July 2, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference.

"Some Economic Problems in the Expansion of Capacity to Produce Military Goods," presented at New Orleans, December 30, 1940, before the American Economic Association, published in American Economic Review, Vol. 30, February 1941, pp. 373–78.

"Emergency Price Control," presented at Chicago, June 6,1941, before the University of Chicago Law School Conference on Public Law (printed in Report of the Conference, 1941, pp. 19–31).

"Competition as a Norm of Economic Behavior," The Journal of Business, Vol. 14, July 1941, pp. 270–83.

"Weights to Compensate for Transformation in Curve Fitting," presented at Chicago, September 3, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 10, January 1942, p. 91).

"Relation of Price Control to Fiscal Policy," in Price Problems in a Defense Economy, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research, privately printed. 1941, pp. 115–20.

"The Future Role of Large-Scale Enterprise," presented at Chicago, September 23, 1941, in connection with the celebration of the Fiftieth Anniversary of the University of Chicago; published in The Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 49, December 1941, pp. 833–48.

"Major Factors Having Current Bearing on Wage Determination," presented at Chicago, October 17, 1941, before the Eighth Annual Midwest Conference on Industrial Relations.

"The Impact of the Defense Program on Business," presented at Chicago, December 4, 1941, before the Citizens Board of Sponsors of the University of Chicago.

(With Dickson H. Leavens) "An Appraisal of the 1940 [Census] Sampling Scheme," presented at New York, December 29, 1941, before the American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

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