DECENNIAL REPORT, 1932–1941
APPENDICES

Research Staff

The staff of the Cowles Commission has included the following:

ALFRED COWLES, B.A., Yale, 1913. Mr. Cowles was the founder of the Cowles Commission and has been its president since the beginning. For 10 years prior to its foundation he maintained a private organization for statistical research on problems pertaining to investment and finance. He is secretary and treasurer and a Fellow of the Econometric Society and trustee of Colorado College, the Fountain Valley School of Colorado, the Colorado Foundation for Research in Tuberculosis, and the Colorado Springs Fine Arts Center.

EDWARD N. CHAPMAN, B.A., Yale, 1917; M.D., Harvard. 1921. Dr. Chapman was a research associate of the Cowles Commission from 1936 to 1941. For several years prior to this time he had devoted himself to economic research.

FORREST DANSON, A.B., Colorado College, 1929. Mr. Danson has been in charge of the computing clerks of the Cowles Commission since its beginning in 1932, and is a research associate.

HAROLD T. DAVIS, A.B., Colorado College, 1915; A.M., Harvard, 1919; Ph.D., Wisconsin, 1926. Professor Davis has been a research associate of the Cowles Commission since its beginning, spending several months of each year in the Commission's laboratory while it was at Colorado Springs and functioning actively as a consultant throughout the balance of the time. From February to August 1937, he was acting research director. He was professor of mathematics at Indiana University. 1923–1937, and at Northwestern University, 1937–. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society. In addition to his publications listed in this report he is the author of Philosophy and Modern Science, The Volterra Integral Equation, and numerous papers in mathematical journals. He is an associate editor of Econometrica, Isis, and the Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society.

JOEL DEAN, A.B., Pomona College, 1927; M.B.A., Harvard University, 1929; Ph.D., the University of Chicago. 1936. Professor Dean joined the staff as a research associate in September 1939. He was on the staff of the International Business Machines Corporation, 1930–32; assistant professor of economics, Indiana University, 1934–37; consulting economist, McKinsey, Wellington and Co., 1937–38; executive secretary of the Conference on Price Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1938–39; assistant professor of statistics and marketing, the School of Business, and director of the Institute of Statistics, the University of Chicago. 1939– . At present Professor Dean is on leave of absence to act as a price executive in the Office of Price Administration. In addition to his publications listed in this report, he is the author of a monograph, Statistical Determination of Costs with Special Reference to Marginal Costs, 1936, and of several articles in statistical and economic journals.

LEONID HURWICZ, Ll.M., University of Warsaw. 1938. Mr. Hurwicz joined the staff as a research associate in January 1942. He has studied at the London School of Economics, the Postgraduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva, the University of Chicago, and Harvard University, and has held a research and teaching assistantship at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. At present he is assisting Professor Lange in his statistical testing of business-cycle theories and Professors Yntema and Dean in the work of the Committee on Price Determination.

HERBERT E. JONES, A.B., Stanford University, 1926; Degree in Engineering. 1928. Mr. Jones was a research fellow of the Cowles Commission from April 1936 to September 1937, and continued as a research associate until his death on January 17, 1942. Previous to coming to the Commission he had been a hydraulic engineer for the Federal Water Service Corporation in San Francisco and New York. An account of his work will be found on pages 24 and 25.

OSCAR LANGE, LL.D., University of Cracow, 1928. Professor Lange joined the staff as a research associate in September. 1939. He was lecturer in statistics and economics at the University of Cracow, 1931– (on leave); lecturer in economics at the Polish Free University, Warsaw. 1937– (on leave); lecturer in economics at the University of Michigan. 1936, at the University of California, 1937–38, and at Stanford University, 1938; assistant professor of economics, 1938–39, and associate professor of economics, 1939– , at the University of Chicago. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society and the author of several monographs: Foundations of Towns on German Law in Western Poland during the Middle Ages, 1925; The Statistical Study of Economic Fluctuations (in Polish),1931; Die Preisdispersion als Mittel zur statistischen Messung wirtschaftlicher Gleichgewichtsstörungen, 1932; and On the Economic Theory of Socialism, 1938; and of a number of articles in economic journals.

DICKSON H, LEAVENS, B.A., Yale. 1909; M.A., 1915. Mr. Leavens has been a research associate of the Cowles Commission since September 1936, and has also served as managing editor of Econometrica. He taught mathematics and other subjects at the College of Yale in China, Changsha from 1909 to 1928 and was treasurer from 1916 to 1928. From 1929 to 1933 he was on the research staff of the Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration. In 1934 he served in China and India as a special agent of the United States Treasury Department to investigate the silver situation. He has specialized in the study of the monetary use of silver. and has published a number of articles on the subject.

H. GREGG LEWIS, A.B., the University of Chicago, 1936. Mr. Lewis joined the staff as a research associate in September. 1939. He was a university fellow in economics at the University of Chicago. 1937–38; fellow of the Brookings Institution, 1938–39; and instructor in economics at the University of Chicago, 1939–. He bas written a number of papers on economics and statistics and is currently engaged in an analysis of the demand for steel.

FRANCIS McINTYRE, A.B., Stanford, 1931, Ph.D., the University of Chicago, 1941. Professor McIntyre was a research associate of the Cowles Commission from September 1937, to September, 1940. He was research assistant, Social Science Research Committee, the University of Chicago, 1931–32; university fellow in economics, the University of Chicago, 1932–34; and instructor in statistics and economics, Stanford University, 1934–1937. He was associate professor of economics at Colorado College from September 1937, to September 1939. During the academic year 1939–40 he was on leave of absence from the Cowles Commission to hold a temporary position as assistant professor of economics at Stanford University, and resigned from the Commission's staff in 1940 to become assistant professor of economics and director of the central statistical bureau at Indiana University.

HORST MENDERSHAUSEN, Ph.D., Geneva, 1937. Dr. Mendershausen joined the staff as a research fellow in November 1938. He is a native of Koethen, Germany. Between the years 1930 and 1937 he studied at the Universities of Freiburg, Heidelberg, Berlin, and Geneva, and the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva. He is the author of two books: Changes of Seasonality in the Building Industry, Geneva, 1937 (in French), and The Economics of War, 1940, and of several papers on economic and statistical topics. During the year 1937–38, he held a fellowship of the Rockefeller Foundation. He left the staff of the Commission in September 1939, to join the faculty of Colorado College, and has since been associated with the National Bureau of Economic Research and with Bennington College.

JACOB L. MOSAK, A.B., the University of Chicago, 1935, Ph.D., 1941. Dr. Mosak joined the staff as a research associate in September 1939. He was research assistant to Professor Henry Schultz at the University of Chicago, 1935–38; Social Science Research Council Fellow, 1938–39; and instructor in economics at the University of Chicago, 1939– . He has published several articles in statistical and economic journals. Since September 1941, he has been on leave of absence in the Office of Price Administration.

WILLIAM F. C. NELSON, A.B., University of Toronto, 1921. Mr. Nelson from 1932 until his death in May 1936, was a research associate of the Cowles Commission. He also served as assistant editor of Econometrica, and was a lecturer in statistics at Colorado College.

CHARLES F. ROOS, B.A., Rice Institute, 1921; M.A., 1924; Ph.D., 1926. Dr. Roos was director of research of the Cowles Commission from September 1934, to January, 1937. He was National Research Council fellow in mathematics 1926–1928; assistant professor of mathematics at Cornell University, 1928–31; secretary of Section K (Economics, Sociology, and Statistics) American Association for the Advancement of Science, 1928–31, and permanent secretary and member of the executive committee of this organization, 1931–33; fellow of the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation. 1933; director of research, National Recovery Administration, 1933–34; professor of econometrics. Colorado College, 1934–37. He was one of the founders of the Econometric Society; secretary-treasurer, 1931–32; secretary, 1932–36. He is a fellow and member of the council of the Society. He resigned from the staff of the Commission in January. 1937, to accept a business research position and later organized the Institute of Applied Econometrics, Inc.

JOHN H. SMITH, Ph.D., the University of Chicago, 1941. Dr. Smith joined the staff as a research associate in September 1940. He was research and teaching assistant in the School of Business, the University of Chicago, 1936–41, and instructor in statistics, 1941–. He has specialized in sampling theory and is the author of two monographs. Tests of Significance and How to Use Them, published in 1939 by the University of Chicago Press, and Statistical Deflation in the Analysis of Economic Series, privately printed in 1941.

GERHARD TINTNER, Ph.D., Vienna. 1928. Professor Tintner was a research fellow of the Cowles Commission from November 1936, to September 1937. He studied at the University of Vienna and the Universities of London, Cambridge, and Harvard. During 1934 and 1935 he held a Rockefeller fellowship. He is the author of Prices in the Trade Cycle, published in Vienna in 1935 by the London School of Economics and the Austrian Institute for Trade Cycle Research, with which he was formerly connected, and of The Variate Difference Method, Monograph No. 5 in the Cowles Commission series. A number of his articles on economic and statistical topics have appeared in the journals. He is now associate professor of economics and mathematics at Iowa State College.

ABRAHAM WALD, Ph.D., Vienna, 1930. Dr. Wald joined the staff as a research fellow for one year in July 1938, but went on leave of absence in September to accept a Carnegie fellowship at Columbia University, where he remained as lecturer in statistics. Dr. Wald is a native of Cluj, Rumania, and received his doctor's degree in mathematics. For several years he was a collaborator of Professor Karl Menger at the University of Vienna and also was an associate of the Institute for Business Cycle Research in Vienna. Before coming to the United States he held a fellowship from the Geneva Research Center in Switzerland, where he was engaged in the study of economic problems. His special topic of investigation during his connection with the Commission was index numbers and family incomes. He has published a large number of papers on mathematical, statistical, and economic subjects in the journals both abroad and in the United States.

THEODORE O. YNTEMA, A.B., Hope College. 1921; A.M., University of Illinois, 1922; C.P.A., Illinois, 1924; Ph.D., the University of Chicago, 1929. Professor Yntema became director of research of the Cowles Commission at the time of the move to Chicago in September 1939. He has served on the faculty of the University of Chicago since 1923 and has been professor of statistics in the School of Business since 1930. He was economic consultant in the NRA, 1934–35; head of economics and statistics in the division of industrial materials of the Defense Commission, 1940; consulting economist and statistician for the United States Steel Corporation and other businesses at various times; and a director of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1940–. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Statistical Association. He is the author of A Mathematical Reformulation of the General Theory of International Trade and of a number of articles in economic journals, and director of most of the research leading to Volume I of TNEC Studies, published by United States Steel Corporation. During the spring quarter of 1942 Professor Yntema is on leave of absence in Washington with the War Shipping Administration.

In addition to the foregoing, the Commission has regularly employed from two to four secretaries and computers. Through its affiliation first with Colorado College and then with the University of Chicago, the Commission has also had the services of a considerable numbers of workers paid by the National Youth Administration.

In Memoriam, HERBERT E. JONES, 1904–1942

During his brief period of active participation in the work of the Cowles Commission, Herbert Jones made a number of significant contributions to statistical and econometric science. Trained in electrical engineering and equipped with an excellent understanding of fundamental mathematics, he brought to bear upon the problems of the Commission a keen and analytical point of view. His breadth of interest is readily observed from the variety and difficulty of the studies which he made.

His first contribution was in the field of engineering economics, where the cost functions associated with hydraulic pumping were analyzed. From this he turned to the study of the statistics of time series, where new techniques were called for, and where analytical leads were obscured by many difficult considerations.

He began his work by exploring the nature of regression functions in correlation analysis and seized upon the concept of statistical hysteresis as a fruitful lead. He differentiated between "lag hysteresis," which depends primarily upon sinusoidal characteristics in the series, and "skew" hysteresis, which depends upon a lack of symmetry in the cycles of the component series. His principle contribution was that the "lag hysteresis" could be corrected for by serial correlation, but that "skew hysteresis" could not be so corrected. Closely associated with this problem was that of the nature of regression lines obtained by minimizing squared residuals taken in directions other than those parallel to two perpendicular axes.

The properties of runs in economic time series intrigued his fancy and he devoted much thought to this problem. He established frequency functions for such runs as they are observed in various types of series, and in a joint paper with Alfred Cowles he applied these findings to stock price movements. This paper has furnished us with a very important example of the application of an abstract theory to actual economic data.

One clue to the analysis of economic time series is found in the concept of a random series. The work of Herbert Jones in this field was of the highest character. He extended some of the important results of Yule, and by a clever device replaced random sequences by certain analytical functions which possessed identical properties. His last investigation was a collaborative study with Forrest Danson on problems associated with tax-exemption laws. This was published as a leading article in Barron's in 1939.

In all of these studies Herbert Jones proved himself to be a young man with an exceptional imagination and an analytical power far beyond the average. Perhaps there is no higher encomium possible than to repeat what was said about the remarkable English mathematician, W.K. Clifford, who died very young: "If he had lived we might have known something."

Equipment and Library

In Colorado Springs the Cowles Commission occupied rented quarters in the Mining Exchange Building. At the University of Chicago its offices are located in the Social Science Building, 1126 East 59th Street.

The Commission has adequate equipment for the statistical work of its staff, including calculating machines, typewriters, and drafting materials. In Colorado Springs, Hollerith punched-card machines were leased full time; in Chicago similar equipment is available at the Comptroller's office on an hourly rental basis.

The Commission has built up a library of about 1500 volumes, containing the important current books on statistics and mathematical economics and a working collection of general economic literature. Several hundred pamphlets and reprints have also been accumulated and catalogued for easy reference. Some 60 periodicals are received currently, including all the more important economic and statistical journals published in the United States and foreign countries.

When the library was moved to Chicago, it was supplemented by the library of the late Professor Henry Schultz, which was presented to the University of Chicago after his death in 1938 and has been deposited in the Commission's offices. This comprises several hundred books on economics (particularly mathematical economics), statistics, and related subjects, including many rare items. In addition, Professor Irving Fisher of Yale University has deposited with the Commission his extensive collection of material on index numbers, gathered over a long period of years.

With the Schultz library and the Commission's own library providing most of the specialized material needed in its field of research, and with the extensive libraries of the University of Chicago for more general material, the Commission is excellently equipped in this respect.

Research Conferences

*Excluding duplications