Cowles
Commission for Research in Economics
DECENNIAL REPORT, 1932–1941
UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO |
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Introduction
The Cowles Commission for Research in Economics was founded in 1932, at which time it
was incorporated under the laws of the State of Colorado as a not-for-profit corporation
to encourage and conduct investigations into problems of current economic importance with
particular reference to the application of statistics and mathematics in the solution of
these problems. In the beginning the following Advisory Council for the Commission was
appointed: Arthur L. Bowley, University of London; Irving Fisher, Yale University; Ragnar
Frisch, University of Norway; Wesley C. Mitchell, Columbia University; Carl Snyder, for
many years with the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Jacob Viner, University of Chicago,
was added to the Advisory Council in 1939.
During the first eight years of its existence the Commission had its headquarters in
Colorado Springs and was affiliated with Colorado College where courses were regularly
offered by members of the Commission's staff. From 1935 to 1940, inclusive, the Commission
each summer conducted a research conference at Colorado College. At these conferences more
than 100 different speakers presented lectures and the attendance included representatives
from 17 foreign countries, as well as most of the important economic research
institutions, government bureaus, institutions of higher education, and many of the large
corporations, in the United States.
In the Spring of 1939 an arrangement was completed with Robert Maynard Hutchins, president
of the University of Chicago, to affiliate the Commission with the University. This
provided for the increase of the research staff of the Commission by the addition of some
members of the University faculty on a part-time basis and of other members of the
faculty, who, while salaried by the University and giving most of their time to its
service, have the assistance of the facilities of the Commission for carrying out research
projects. The University furnishes the Commission with offices in the Social Science
Research Building. The move from Colorado Springs to Chicago was made in September, 1939,
and at that time the Commission was incorporated as a not-for-profit corporation under the
laws of the State of Illinois.
Eighteen different individuals have been connected with the Commission as research
associates, of whom 10 are at present affiliated in that capacity. An average of four
full-time employees has been maintained for computing and other clerical work, as well as
a large number of part-time student workers provided through the co-operation of the
National youth Administration.
During the 10 years of its existence the Commission has published six monographs, varying
in length from 175 to 620 pages. In addition to these, members of the staff have published
14 other books and 106 journal articles, and have presented 152 papers before scientific
societies. Staff members have also taken a major part in the administration of the affairs
of the Econometric Society and in the publication of its quarterly journals Econometrica.
Research Program of the Commission
The war has required major changes in the research work of the Commission. On the one
hand, new and urgent economic problems have arisen, and on the others the opportunities
for current observation of normal price-making processes have nearly disappeared. The past
and probable future losses of members of the staff to government agencies make it unwise
to undertake at this time a large-scale research project continuing over several years.
For these reasons, the Commission is deferring its long-range program, directed to the
analysis of factors determining rates of investment and ultimately to a consideration of
the obstacles to full employment of productive resources, and is devoting its energies, in
so far as they can be efficiently used, to a study of war price controls.
This project is being undertaken jointly by the Cowles Commission and by the Price
Conference of the National Bureau of Economic Research. It has three phases: theoretical
analysis, study of statistics and other information relating to price and wage phenomena,
and field investigation through interviews with buyers and sellers. The objective is to
appraise various types of price-control methods and the administrative devices employed in
implementing these methods. Besides having long-range significance, the findings will be
useful in affording the public and parties immediately interested an objective critique of
methods of price control. Theodore O. Yntema and Joel Dean (to the extent the latter's
obligations in the Office of Price Administration permit) are directing the project with
assistance from the Committee on Price Determination organized under the Price Conference
of the National Bureau. Oscar Lange is participating actively both as a member of the
Committee and as a Cowles Commission research associate. After the middle of the year,
Leonid Hurwicz and a staff of interviewers will devote full time to the undertaking. In
addition to the resources made available for this enterprise by the Cowles Commission and
the National Bureau. it is hoped that funds may be obtained from other sources to conduct
the investigation on a larger scale.
The work in progress in the Commission includes also a considerable number of projects
which were initiated prior to the war.
Alfred Cowles, Forrest Danson, and Dickson H. Leavens have continued their systematic
appraisal of stock price forecasts to determine the degree of accuracy of predictions by
professional forecasters.
Harold T. Davis has begun a compilation of price data in ancient-Egypt and Rome with the
objective of extending time-series analysis of price into earlier periods of history.
Joel Dean has been on leave of absence to act as price executive for industrial and
agricultural machinery in the Office of Price Administration. He has therefore been unable
to proceed with his book which would integrate his various studies of cost and demand
functions in the individual enterprise It is hoped that this book will appear as a Cowles
Commission Monograph when Professor Dean resumes his academic activities.
Oscar Lange, assisted by Leonid Hurwicz, is investigating the effects of changes in
national income and employment on savings and the pattern of consumption expenditures, and
is studying the relationships among national income, employment, and investment. Professor
Lange and Mr. Hurwicz are also investigating the possibility of analyzing time series by
recently developed methods such as the correlogram and the harmonic dial, in order to
obtain a more satisfactory test of certain theories of business cycles than has been
possible by classical periodogram analysis.
Dickson H. Leavens, whose time is largely occupied with editorial work, has been
continuing the collection of materials on silver and gold especially with reference to the
monetary uses of these metals.
The analysis of the factors determining the demand for steel undertaken by H. Gregg Lewis
has progressed far enough to be submitted as a doctoral dissertation. Mr. Lewis plans to
refine and amplify his study before it is published as a Commission monograph. This
pioneer investigation will help illuminate the demand for durable goods, a dark field in
economics.
Jacob L. Mosak is on leave of absence to take a position in the Office of Price
Administration. He has, however, completed the draft of his mathematical formulation of
the theory of international trade. After minor revisions are made by the author, this
study will appear as a Commission monograph. It affords a definitive statement of
international trade theory constructed on the foundations of theoretical economics which
have been laid by J. R. Hicks and others during the last decade.
John H. Smith is continuing his organization and integration of the theory of sampling.
This work is designed to bring within the horizon of most statisticians a comprehension of
sampling theory instead of a mere acquaintance with rules of thumb for making tests of
significance. Theodore O. Yntema is collaborating in this project.
The Committee on Price Determination, established under the auspices of the National
Bureau and functioning in co-operation with the Cowles Commission under the direction of
Co-Chairmen Joel Dean and Theodore O. Yntema, has been engaged in an exploratory analysis
of the factors determining price policies of business men. The work of this Committee has
been done mainly by Mr. Hurwicz and a small interviewing and clerical staff. The scope and
technique of the interview have been developed and approximately one hundred interviews
have been completed. A preliminary report on this work is in preparation. When this report
is finished, the Committee will shift its attention to the study of war price controls, as
previously indicated.
At the invitation of the Director of the Financial Research Program of the National
Bureau, the Cowles Commission is joining in a survey of the possibilities of determining
the suitability of common stocks for investment by insurance companies. Francis McIntyre,
a former research associate, Forrest Danson, and Theodore O. Yntema are participating in
planing for this research.
Affiliation with the Econometric
Society
The Cowles Commission since its organization has been affiliated with the Econometric
Society, an international society founded in 1930 for the advancement of economic theory
in its relation to statistics and mathematics. The Society's offices have been located at
the headquarters of the Cowles Commission in Colorado Springs and later in Chicago, and
its quarterly journal, Econometrica, has been published there. The Society now has
721 members in 40 countries, and nearly 300 other subscribers to Econometrica,
chiefly libraries. Nine volumes of Econometrica, totalling nearly 3700 pages, have
been published since its first issue in January, 1933.
Members of the Cowles Commission staff have taken an active part in the work of the
Society. Charles F. Roos was secretary until the end of 1936; and Alfred Cowles has been
treasurer from 1932 and secretary from 1937. The editor of Econometrica is Ragnar
Frisch of the University of Norway, a member of the Advisory Council of the Cowles
Commission. The following members of the Commission staff have assisted in the
publication: William F.C. Nelson, assistant editor from 1933 until his death in May, 1936;
Dickson H. Leavens, managing editor from October, 1936; Harold T. Davis, associate editor
from 1933; Charles F. Roos, member of advisory editorial board from 1933; Alfred Cowles,
business manager from 1933. Francis McIntyre since 1938 has served as secretary of the
American program Committee which plans the meetings of the Society.
Research Conferences
The Cowles Commission conducted a Research Conference on Economics and Statistics at
Colorado Springs each summer from 1935 to 1940 inclusive. At these conferences papers were
presented by more than 100 economists and statisticians from universities and research
institutions throughout the United States and Europe. Over 500 persons attended one or
more of the conferences.
The usual four-week program provided for two lectures and discussion periods in the
mornings, Monday through Friday. Afternoons, evenings, and weekends were left free through
the courtesy of Colorado College a convenient lecture room was provided in Palmer Hall and
out-of-town participants were accommodated in the college dormitories. The opportunities
afforded for getting acquainted and for informal discussions were a valuable supplement to
the regular sessions of the conferences. Participants also took advantage of the
opportunities for recreation in the Pikes Peak region, which aided in making the
conferences a well-balanced combination of intellectual stimulation and of vacation.
A brief account of the special features of each annual conference is given below; in the
appendix will be found a statistical summary and a list of the speakers. The first conference,
in 1935, was a series of informal meetings of members of the Econometric Society who
remained in the vicinity of Colorado Springs after the meeting of the Society held there
on June 22–24 of that year. These meetings were so successful that it was decided to
continue them in subsequent years.
The second
conference, July 6–August 8, 1936, was planned early in that year and
invitations were sent out to members of the Econometric Society and to others who might be
interested. The response was encouraging: an excellent list of speakers was secured and
more than 50 persons from out of town attended. In addition to the morning sessions, four
public evening lectures were given by Professor Irving Fisher, Professor Corrado Gini, Dr.
Walter A. Shewhart, and Mr. Carl Synder.
The third conference
was held June 28–July 23, 1937. Preparations for this and future conferences were
begun each October by issuing invitations to speakers, and in April a preliminary program
was made up and circulated to a large list of economists and statisticians in the United
States and Europe. The 1937 conference followed immediately after a meeting of the
Econometric Society which was held at Denver from June 24 to 26 in connection with the One
Hundredth Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, thus making
it possible for many to attend both meetings. The out-of-town attendance in 1937 increased
about 20 per cent. In addition to the conference lectures, public evening lectures were
given by Dr. Thornton H. Fry, Professor James Harvey Rogers, and Mr. Carl Snyder.
The fourth
conference was held from July 5–29, 1938. Since this year marked the
hundredth anniversary of the publication by Antoine-Augustin Cournot of Recherches sur
les principes mathématiques de la théorie des richesses, the pioneer work in
mathematical economics, it was decided to feature this centenary in the program. The
opening lecture by Professor Harold T. Davis was devoted to "Cournot — Pioneer
in Scientific Economics." On the invitation of the Cowles Commission, the French
Government sent as its official representative to the conference Professor René Roy,
chief engineer of the Department of Bridges and Roads, and professor at the National
School of Bridges and Roads and at the Institute of Statistics of the University of Paris.
Professor Roy gave a public lecture in French on "La vie d'Augustin Cournot, sa
pensée, ses tendances philosophique et son oeuvre," and two lectures before the
conference: "A propos d'un centenaire: l'oeuvre économique d'Augustin Cournot,"
and "Etude particulière d'une loi de demande: le trafic postale en France de 1873 à
1936." The out-of-town attendance reached nearly 100 this year, including
participants from eight foreign countries.
The fifth conference
was held from July 3–28, 1939, and again showed an increase in attendance, both from
out-of-town and local. Six foreign countries were represented among the participants. The
program included lectures by seven representatives of government organizations.
The sixth conference
was held from July 1–26, 1940. Since the Cowles Commission had moved to Chicago its
library and laboratory facilities were no longer available to participants, but a
temporary office was opened in Palmer Hall to handle the details of the conference. Most
of the Cowles Commission research staff came on from Chicago for part or all of the
period. In addition to the council lectures, two public evening lectures were given by
Professor Irving Fisher and Mr. Carl Snyder.
Reports of each conference except the first have been published by the Cowles Commission.
Each report consists of about 100 pages and contains brief abstracts of each lecture
presented. Copies of any of the reports will be sent without charge to those who ask for
them.
Publications
A function of the Commission is to issue, from time to time, various monographs of an
economic-statistical or econometric nature without, however, assuming responsibility for
theories or opinions expressed therein. Six monographs have been published for the
Commission by the Principia Press, Bloomington, Indiana. (See complete LIST OF MONOGRAPHS)
In the course of the next few years research now in process will lead to monographs on
the theory of international trade, on the statistical determination of cost functions, on
the theory of sampling, on the character of the demand for steel, and on other topics.
The Commission, in addition to its own monographs, assisted in the publication of a
textbook, Elements of Statistics, 424 pp., by Harold T. Davis and William F.C.
Nelson, published in July, 1935, by the Principia Press. This has been adopted as a text
by a number of colleges and universities in the United States and abroad. A revised and enlarged
second edition (12,564 kb) (434 pp.) was published in March 1937.
Members of the Commission's staff, during the years of their connection with it, have
published 19 books and other separate publications and 106 journal articles, and have
presented 152 papers before scientific societies and other meetings. These are summarized
in the table below and a detailed list of them is given in the Appendix.
Year |
Books and
monographs |
Articles
published |
Papers
read |
| 1932 |
... |
... |
5 |
| 1933 |
1 |
4 |
3 |
| 1934 |
1 |
1 |
9 |
| 1935 |
3 |
5 |
8 |
| 1936 |
1 |
6 |
16 |
| 1937 |
1 |
11 |
22 |
| 1938 |
1 |
9 |
18 |
| 1939 |
1 |
26 |
26 |
| 1940 |
3 |
14 |
20 |
| 1941 |
7 |
30 |
25 |
| Total |
19 |
106 |
152 |
APPENDICES
Research Staff
 The staff of the Cowles Commission has included the following:
ALFRED COWLES, B.A., Yale, 1913. Mr. Cowles was the founder of the Cowles
Commission and has been its president since the beginning. For 10 years prior to its
foundation he maintained a private organization for statistical research on problems
pertaining to investment and finance. He is secretary and treasurer and a Fellow of the
Econometric Society and trustee of Colorado College, the Fountain Valley School of
Colorado, the Colorado Foundation for Research in Tuberculosis, and the Colorado Springs
Fine Arts Center.
EDWARD N. CHAPMAN, B.A., Yale, 1917; M.D., Harvard. 1921. Dr. Chapman was a
research associate of the Cowles Commission from 1936 to 1941. For several years prior to
this time he had devoted himself to economic research.
FORREST DANSON, A.B., Colorado College, 1929. Mr. Danson has been in charge of the
computing clerks of the Cowles Commission since its beginning in 1932, and is a research
associate.
HAROLD T. DAVIS, A.B., Colorado College, 1915; A.M., Harvard, 1919; Ph.D.,
Wisconsin, 1926. Professor Davis has been a research associate of the Cowles Commission
since its beginning, spending several months of each year in the Commission's laboratory
while it was at Colorado Springs and functioning actively as a consultant throughout the
balance of the time. From February to August 1937, he was acting research director. He was
professor of mathematics at Indiana University. 1923–1937, and at Northwestern
University, 1937–. He is a fellow of the Econometric Society. In addition to his
publications listed in this report he is the author of Philosophy and Modern Science,
The Volterra Integral Equation, and numerous papers in mathematical journals. He is
an associate editor of Econometrica, Isis, and the Bulletin of the
American Mathematical Society.
JOEL DEAN, A.B., Pomona College, 1927; M.B.A., Harvard University, 1929; Ph.D., the
University of Chicago. 1936. Professor Dean joined the staff as a research associate in
September 1939. He was on the staff of the International Business Machines Corporation,
1930–32; assistant professor of economics, Indiana University, 1934–37;
consulting economist, McKinsey, Wellington and Co., 1937–38; executive secretary of
the Conference on Price Research, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1938–39;
assistant professor of statistics and marketing, the School of Business, and director of
the Institute of Statistics, the University of Chicago. 1939– . At present Professor
Dean is on leave of absence to act as a price executive in the Office of Price
Administration. In addition to his publications listed in this report, he is the author of
a monograph, Statistical Determination of Costs with Special Reference to Marginal
Costs, 1936, and of several articles in statistical and economic journals.
LEONID HURWICZ, Ll.M., University of Warsaw. 1938. Mr. Hurwicz joined the staff as
a research associate in January 1942. He has studied at the London School of Economics,
the Postgraduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva, the University of Chicago,
and Harvard University, and has held a research and teaching assistantship at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology. At present he is assisting Professor Lange in his
statistical testing of business-cycle theories and Professors Yntema and Dean in the work
of the Committee on Price Determination.
HERBERT E. JONES, A.B., Stanford University, 1926; Degree in Engineering. 1928. Mr.
Jones was a research fellow of the Cowles Commission from April 1936 to September 1937,
and continued as a research associate until his death on January 17, 1942. Previous to
coming to the Commission he had been a hydraulic engineer for the Federal Water Service
Corporation in San Francisco and New York. An account of his work will be found on pages
24 and 25.
OSCAR LANGE, LL.D., University of Cracow, 1928. Professor Lange joined the staff as
a research associate in September. 1939. He was lecturer in statistics and economics at
the University of Cracow, 1931– (on leave); lecturer in economics at the Polish Free
University, Warsaw. 1937– (on leave); lecturer in economics at the University of
Michigan. 1936, at the University of California, 1937–38, and at Stanford University,
1938; assistant professor of economics, 1938–39, and associate professor of
economics, 1939– , at the University of Chicago. He is a fellow of the Econometric
Society and the author of several monographs: Foundations of Towns on German Law in
Western Poland during the Middle Ages, 1925; The Statistical Study of Economic
Fluctuations (in Polish),1931; Die Preisdispersion als Mittel zur statistischen
Messung wirtschaftlicher Gleichgewichtsstörungen, 1932; and On the Economic Theory
of Socialism, 1938; and of a number of articles in economic journals.
DICKSON H, LEAVENS, B.A., Yale. 1909; M.A., 1915. Mr. Leavens has been a research
associate of the Cowles Commission since September 1936, and has also served as managing
editor of Econometrica. He taught mathematics and other subjects at the College of
Yale in China, Changsha from 1909 to 1928 and was treasurer from 1916 to 1928. From 1929
to 1933 he was on the research staff of the Harvard Graduate School of Business
Administration. In 1934 he served in China and India as a special agent of the United
States Treasury Department to investigate the silver situation. He has specialized in the
study of the monetary use of silver. and has published a number of articles on the
subject.
H. GREGG LEWIS, A.B., the University of Chicago, 1936. Mr. Lewis joined the staff
as a research associate in September. 1939. He was a university fellow in economics at the
University of Chicago. 1937–38; fellow of the Brookings Institution, 1938–39;
and instructor in economics at the University of Chicago, 1939–. He bas written a
number of papers on economics and statistics and is currently engaged in an analysis of
the demand for steel.
FRANCIS McINTYRE, A.B., Stanford, 1931, Ph.D., the University of Chicago, 1941.
Professor McIntyre was a research associate of the Cowles Commission from September 1937,
to September, 1940. He was research assistant, Social Science Research Committee, the
University of Chicago, 1931–32; university fellow in economics, the University of
Chicago, 1932–34; and instructor in statistics and economics, Stanford University,
1934–1937. He was associate professor of economics at Colorado College from September
1937, to September 1939. During the academic year 1939–40 he was on leave of absence
from the Cowles Commission to hold a temporary position as assistant professor of
economics at Stanford University, and resigned from the Commission's staff in 1940 to
become assistant professor of economics and director of the central statistical bureau at
Indiana University.
HORST MENDERSHAUSEN, Ph.D., Geneva, 1937. Dr. Mendershausen joined the staff as a
research fellow in November 1938. He is a native of Koethen, Germany. Between the years
1930 and 1937 he studied at the Universities of Freiburg, Heidelberg, Berlin, and Geneva,
and the Graduate Institute of International Studies at Geneva. He is the author of two
books: Changes of Seasonality in the Building Industry, Geneva, 1937 (in French), and The
Economics of War, 1940, and of several papers on economic and statistical topics. During
the year 1937–38, he held a fellowship of the Rockefeller Foundation. He left the
staff of the Commission in September 1939, to join the faculty of Colorado College, and
has since been associated with the National Bureau of Economic Research and with
Bennington College.
JACOB L. MOSAK, A.B., the University of Chicago, 1935, Ph.D., 1941. Dr. Mosak
joined the staff as a research associate in September 1939. He was research assistant to
Professor Henry Schultz at the University of Chicago, 1935–38; Social Science
Research Council Fellow, 1938–39; and instructor in economics at the University of
Chicago, 1939– . He has published several articles in statistical and economic
journals. Since September 1941, he has been on leave of absence in the Office of Price
Administration.
WILLIAM F. C. NELSON, A.B., University of Toronto, 1921. Mr. Nelson from 1932 until
his death in May 1936, was a research associate of the Cowles Commission. He also served
as assistant editor of Econometrica, and was a lecturer in statistics at Colorado
College.
CHARLES F. ROOS, B.A., Rice Institute, 1921; M.A., 1924; Ph.D., 1926. Dr. Roos was
director of research of the Cowles Commission from September 1934, to January, 1937. He
was National Research Council fellow in mathematics 1926–1928; assistant professor of
mathematics at Cornell University, 1928–31; secretary of Section K (Economics,
Sociology, and Statistics) American Association for the Advancement of Science,
1928–31, and permanent secretary and member of the executive committee of this
organization, 1931–33; fellow of the John Simon Guggenheim Memorial Foundation. 1933;
director of research, National Recovery Administration, 1933–34; professor of
econometrics. Colorado College, 1934–37. He was one of the founders of the
Econometric Society; secretary-treasurer, 1931–32; secretary, 1932–36. He is a
fellow and member of the council of the Society. He resigned from the staff of the
Commission in January. 1937, to accept a business research position and later organized
the Institute of Applied Econometrics, Inc.
JOHN H. SMITH, Ph.D., the University of Chicago, 1941. Dr. Smith joined the staff
as a research associate in September 1940. He was research and teaching assistant in the
School of Business, the University of Chicago, 1936–41, and instructor in statistics,
1941–. He has specialized in sampling theory and is the author of two monographs. Tests
of Significance and How to Use Them, published in 1939 by the University of Chicago
Press, and Statistical Deflation in the Analysis of Economic Series, privately
printed in 1941.
GERHARD TINTNER, Ph.D., Vienna. 1928. Professor Tintner was a research fellow of
the Cowles Commission from November 1936, to September 1937. He studied at the University
of Vienna and the Universities of London, Cambridge, and Harvard. During 1934 and 1935 he
held a Rockefeller fellowship. He is the author of Prices in the Trade Cycle,
published in Vienna in 1935 by the London School of Economics and the Austrian Institute
for Trade Cycle Research, with which he was formerly connected, and of The Variate
Difference Method, Monograph No. 5 in the Cowles Commission series. A number of his
articles on economic and statistical topics have appeared in the journals. He is now
associate professor of economics and mathematics at Iowa State College.
ABRAHAM WALD, Ph.D., Vienna, 1930. Dr. Wald joined the staff as a research fellow
for one year in July 1938, but went on leave of absence in September to accept a Carnegie
fellowship at Columbia University, where he remained as lecturer in statistics. Dr. Wald
is a native of Cluj, Rumania, and received his doctor's degree in mathematics. For several
years he was a collaborator of Professor Karl Menger at the University of Vienna and also
was an associate of the Institute for Business Cycle Research in Vienna. Before coming to
the United States he held a fellowship from the Geneva Research Center in Switzerland,
where he was engaged in the study of economic problems. His special topic of investigation
during his connection with the Commission was index numbers and family incomes. He has
published a large number of papers on mathematical, statistical, and economic subjects in
the journals both abroad and in the United States.
THEODORE O. YNTEMA, A.B., Hope College. 1921; A.M., University of Illinois, 1922;
C.P.A., Illinois, 1924; Ph.D., the University of Chicago, 1929. Professor Yntema became
director of research of the Cowles Commission at the time of the move to Chicago in
September 1939. He has served on the faculty of the University of Chicago since 1923 and
has been professor of statistics in the School of Business since 1930. He was economic
consultant in the NRA, 1934–35; head of economics and statistics in the division of
industrial materials of the Defense Commission, 1940; consulting economist and
statistician for the United States Steel Corporation and other businesses at various
times; and a director of the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1940–. He is a
fellow of the Econometric Society and of the American Statistical Association. He is the
author of A Mathematical Reformulation of the General Theory of International Trade
and of a number of articles in economic journals, and director of most of the research
leading to Volume I of TNEC Studies, published by United States Steel Corporation. During
the spring quarter of 1942 Professor Yntema is on leave of absence in Washington with the
War Shipping Administration.
In addition to the foregoing, the Commission has regularly employed from two to four
secretaries and computers. Through its affiliation first with Colorado College and then
with the University of Chicago, the Commission has also had the services of a considerable
numbers of workers paid by the National Youth Administration.
In Memoriam, HERBERT E. JONES,
1904–1942
During his brief period of active participation in the work of the Cowles Commission,
Herbert Jones made a number of significant contributions to statistical and econometric
science. Trained in electrical engineering and equipped with an excellent understanding of
fundamental mathematics, he brought to bear upon the problems of the Commission a keen and
analytical point of view. His breadth of interest is readily observed from the variety and
difficulty of the studies which he made.
His first contribution was in the field of engineering economics, where the cost functions
associated with hydraulic pumping were analyzed. From this he turned to the study of the
statistics of time series, where new techniques were called for, and where analytical
leads were obscured by many difficult considerations.
He began his work by exploring the nature of regression functions in correlation analysis
and seized upon the concept of statistical hysteresis as a fruitful lead. He
differentiated between "lag hysteresis," which depends primarily upon sinusoidal
characteristics in the series, and "skew" hysteresis, which depends upon a lack
of symmetry in the cycles of the component series. His principle contribution was that the
"lag hysteresis" could be corrected for by serial correlation, but that
"skew hysteresis" could not be so corrected. Closely associated with this
problem was that of the nature of regression lines obtained by minimizing squared
residuals taken in directions other than those parallel to two perpendicular axes.
The properties of runs in economic time series intrigued his fancy and he devoted much
thought to this problem. He established frequency functions for such runs as they are
observed in various types of series, and in a joint paper with Alfred Cowles he applied
these findings to stock price movements. This paper has furnished us with a very important
example of the application of an abstract theory to actual economic data.
One clue to the analysis of economic time series is found in the concept of a random
series. The work of Herbert Jones in this field was of the highest character. He extended
some of the important results of Yule, and by a clever device replaced random sequences by
certain analytical functions which possessed identical properties. His last investigation
was a collaborative study with Forrest Danson on problems associated with tax-exemption
laws. This was published as a leading article in Barron's in 1939.
In all of these studies Herbert Jones proved himself to be a young man with an exceptional
imagination and an analytical power far beyond the average. Perhaps there is no higher
encomium possible than to repeat what was said about the remarkable English mathematician,
W.K. Clifford, who died very young: "If he had lived we might have known
something."
Equipment and Library
In Colorado Springs the Cowles Commission occupied rented quarters in the Mining
Exchange Building. At the University of Chicago its offices are located in the Social
Science Building, 1126 East 59th Street.
The Commission has adequate equipment for the statistical work of its staff, including
calculating machines, typewriters, and drafting materials. In Colorado Springs, Hollerith
punched-card machines were leased full time; in Chicago similar equipment is available at
the Comptroller's office on an hourly rental basis.
The Commission has built up a library of about 1500 volumes, containing the important
current books on statistics and mathematical economics and a working collection of general
economic literature. Several hundred pamphlets and reprints have also been accumulated and
catalogued for easy reference. Some 60 periodicals are received currently, including all
the more important economic and statistical journals published in the United States and
foreign countries.
When the library was moved to Chicago, it was supplemented by the library of the late
Professor Henry Schultz, which was presented to the University of Chicago after his death
in 1938 and has been deposited in the Commission's offices. This comprises several hundred
books on economics (particularly mathematical economics), statistics, and related
subjects, including many rare items. In addition, Professor Irving Fisher of Yale
University has deposited with the Commission his extensive collection of material on index
numbers, gathered over a long period of years.
With the Schultz library and the Commission's own library providing most of the
specialized material needed in its field of research, and with the extensive libraries of
the University of Chicago for more general material, the Commission is excellently
equipped in this respect.
Research Conferences
| Statistics |
1935 |
1936 |
1937 |
1938 |
1940 |
1941 |
Total |
| Number of conference lectures |
8 |
33 |
40 |
38 |
38 |
38 |
195 |
| Number of public lectures |
... |
4 |
3 |
1 |
... |
2 |
10 |
| Number of lectures |
7 |
20 |
26 |
27 |
32 |
37 |
102* |
| Average attendance per lecture |
15 |
27 |
36 |
47 |
51 |
32 |
38 |
Participants
Local
Out of town
Foreign |
20
4
1 |
24
45
10 |
41
62
5 |
99
80
13 |
122
100
12 |
103
100
12 |
200*
303*
43* |
| Total |
25 |
79 |
108 |
192 |
234 |
204 |
546* |
| Number of foreign countries represented |
1 |
7 |
4 |
8 |
6 |
4 |
17* |
*Excluding duplications
| Speakers |
Lectures
given |
| 1935 |
1936 |
1937 |
1938 |
1939 |
1940 |
| Allen, Mr. R.G.D., London School of
Economics |
... |
... |
... |
3 |
... |
... |
| Bartky, Professor Walter, University of
Chicago |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Bean, Mr. Louis H., U.S. Dept. of
Agriculture |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
... |
| Bratt, Professor Elmer C., Lehigh
University |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Brown, Professor Theodore H., Harvard
Business School |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
... |
| Burgess, Dr. Robert W., Western Electric
Co. |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
1 |
| Camp, Professor Burton H., Wesleyan
University |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Canning, Professor John B., Stanford
University |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Ciriacy-Wantrup, Professor S.V.,
University of California |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
| Court, Mr. Andrew T., Automobile
Manufacturers Association |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Cowles, Mr. Alfred, Cowles Commission |
1 |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Davies, Dr. Maurice B., Denver & Rio
Grande Western, Railroad Co. |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Davis, Professor Harold T., Indiana
University, Northwestern University, and Cowles Commission |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
3 |
2 |
| Dean, Professor Joel P., University of
Chicago and Cowles Commission |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Deming, Dr. W. Edwards, Bureau of the
Census, U.S. Dept. of Commerce |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Derksen, Dr. J.B.D., Netherlands Central
Bureau of Statistics |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Dodd, Professor Edward L., University of
Texas |
... |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Dresch, Dr. Francis W., University of
California |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
1 |
| Evans, Professor Griffith C., University
of California |
... |
... |
3 |
... |
... |
... |
| Ezekiel, Dr. Mordecai, U.S. Dept. of
Agriculture |
... |
... |
... |
3 |
1 |
... |
| Ferger, Dr. Wirth F., U.S. Dept. of
Agriculture |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Fisher, Mr. Arne, New York City |
... |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
| Fisher, Dr. Ernest M., American Bankers
Association |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Fisher, Professor Irving, Yale
University |
... |
5 |
... |
... |
... |
2 |
| Fisher, Dr. R.A., University of London |
... |
3 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Flood, Dr. M.M., Princeton University |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
1 |
| Frisch, Professor Ragnar, University of
Norway |
... |
... |
4 |
... |
... |
... |
| Fry, Dr. Thornton T., Bell Telephone
Laboratories, Inc. |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
... |
| Garnsey, Professor Morris E., University
of Colorado |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Geiringer, Dr. Hilda, Bryn Mawr College |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Gill, Mr. Corrington, Work Projects
Administration |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Gini, Professor Corrado, University of
Rome |
... |
3 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Goldenweiser, Dr. E.A., Board of
Governors of the Federal Reserve |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Griffin, Professor Frank L., Reed
College |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
| Grove, Professor C.C., College of the
City of New York |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Haavelmo, Mr. Trygve, University of
Norway |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
1 |
| Harrkemeier, Professor Harry Pelle,
University of Missouri |
... |
1 |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
| Harvill, Professor Richard A.,
University of Arizona |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Hayes, Dr. Anson, The American Rolling
Mills Company |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Hotelling, Professor Harold, Columbia
University |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Huntington, Professor Edward V., Harvard
University |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
... |
| Ingraham, Professor Mark H., University
of Wisconsin |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Jones, Mr. Herbert E., Cowles Commission |
1 |
1 |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
| Joseph, Miss Margaret F. W., National
Economics Institute |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
| Joy, Dr. Aryness, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Labor |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Kelley, Professor Truman L., Harvard
University |
... |
... |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
| Kreps, Professor Theodore J., Stanford
University and Temporary National Economic Committee |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Lange, Professor Oscar, University of
Chicago and Cowles Commission |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Laursen, Mr. Svend, University of
Copenhagen |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Leavens, Mr. Dickson H., Cowles
Commission |
... |
1 |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
| Lederer, Professor Emil, New School for
Social Research |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
| Leontief, Professor Wassily, Harvard
University |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Lerner, Mr. Abba P., London School of
Economics |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
1 |
... |
| Lewis, Mr. H. Gregg, University of
Chicago and Cowles Commission |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Loesch, Dr. August, University of Bonn |
2 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Lotka, Dr. A.J., Metropolitan Life
Insurance Company |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Lovitt, Professor William V., Colorado
College |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
| McIntyre, Professor Francis, Stanford
University and Cowles Commission |
... |
... |
1 |
1 |
2 |
1 |
| Marschak, Professor Jakob, University of
Oxford |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
2 |
... |
| Mayer, Dr. Joseph, Library of Congress |
... |
2 |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
| Mendershausen, Dr. Horst, Colorado
College and Cowles Commission |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Menger, Professor Karl, University of
Notre Dame |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
| Molina, Mr. Edward C., Bell Telephone
Laboratories, Inc. |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Myers, Dr. Howard B., Work Projects
Administration |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Newbury, Mr. F.D., Westinghouse Electric
& Manufacturing Co. |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
| Palander, Dr. Tord, University of
Stockholm |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Papi, Professor Ugo, University of Rome |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
| Petersen, Mr. Kaare, Central Statistical
Bureau of Norway |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Petersen, Dr. O. Strange, University of
Aarhus |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
| Pribam, Dr. Karl, Social Security Board |
... |
... |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
| Rashevsky, Professor Nicolas, University
of Chicago |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Rawles, Dean Thomas H., Colorado College |
1 |
1 |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
| Reed, Dr. Vergil D., Bureau of the
Census, U.S. Dept. of Commerce |
... |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
| Rogers, Professor James Harvey, Yale
University |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
| Roll, Professor Erich, University
College, Hull |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Roos, Dr. Charles F., Cowles Commission,
Colorado College, Mercer-Allied Corporation, Institute of Applied Econometrics, Inc. |
1 |
2 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
1 |
| Roy, Professor Rene, University of Paris |
... |
... |
... |
3 |
... |
... |
| Samuelson, Professor Paul A., MIT |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Sarle, Dr. Charles F., Bureau of
Agricultural Economics, U.S. Dept. of Agriculture |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Schultz, Professor Henry, The University
of Chicago |
... |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
| Scoville, Mr. John W., Chrysler
Corporation |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Secrist, Professor Horace, Northwestern
University |
... |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
| Shepherd, Professor Geoffrey, Iowa State
College |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Shewhart, Dr. Walter A., Bell Telephone
Laboratories, Inc. |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Smit, Dr. Carel Jan, Ottawa Beach,
Michigan |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Smith, Dr. John H., University of
Chicago and Cowles Commission |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Snyder, Mr. Carl, for many years with
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York |
... |
4 |
3 |
... |
... |
2 |
| Stafford, Mr. Jack, Victoria University
of Manchester |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Stine, Dr. Oscar C., U.S. Dept. of
Agriculture |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
... |
| Sturges, Mr. Alexander, Bureau of Labor
Statistics, U.S. Dept. of Labor |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Tintner, Professor Gerhard, Iowa State
College, Colorado College, and Cowles Commission |
... |
... |
1 |
1 |
1 |
... |
| Triffin, Dr. Robert, Harvard University |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| Truesdell, Dr. Leon E., Bureau of the
Census, U.S. Dept. of Commerce |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
| van Dyk, Miss Phyllis, NBER and Cowles
Commission |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
| Vinci, Professor Felice, University of
Bologna |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
| Vinogradoff, Mr. D.I., Westinghouse
Electric & Manufacturing Co. |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
| Wald, Dr. Abraham, Columbia University
and Cowles Commission |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Watkins, Professor Ralph S., University
of Pittsburgh |
... |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
| Wilks, Professor S. S., Princeton
University |
... |
... |
1 |
... |
... |
... |
| Working, Professor Elmer J., University
of Illinois |
... |
2 |
1 |
1 |
... |
... |
| Working, Professor Holbrook, Stanford
University |
... |
... |
2 |
... |
... |
1 |
| Yntema, Professor Theodore O.,
University of Chicago and Cowles Commission |
... |
... |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
|
Staff Bibliography
| EDWARD N. CHAPMAN (1936–1941) |
"Suppose there IS a War," Barron's, Vol. 19, No.6,
Feb. 6, 1939, p. 7. |
"Markets Highly Selective in Wartime," Barron's, Vol.
19, No. 43, Oct. 23, 1939, p. 20. |
(With C.H. Boissevain) "Leucocyte Count and Recovery from
Tuberculosis," The American Review of Tuberculosis, Vol. 44, July 1941, pp.
58–72. |
"Growth Stocks and the Investor," Baron’s, Vol.
21, October 6, 1941, pp. 3–4; October 13, p. 7; October 20, p. 18; October 27, p. 13;
November 3, p. 13; November 10, p. 8; November 17, p. 20; November 24, p. 13; December 1,
p. 13; December 8, p. 13; December 15, p. 13; December 22, p. 20; December 29, p. 20. |
ALFRED COWLES (1932– ) |
Common-Stock Indexes, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press,
1938; second edition, 1939. xii + 499 pp. |
"Can Stock Market Forecasters Forecast?" presented at
Cincinnati, December 31, 1932, before the Econometric Society and the American Statistical
Association (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 1, April 1933, pp. 212–13);
published in Econometrica, Vol. 1, July, 1933, pp. 309–24. |
"The Meeting of the Econometric Society in Cincinnati, Ohio,
December, 1932," Econometrica, Vol. 1, April 1933, pp. 209–17. |
"The Meeting of the Econometric Society in Chicago, June,
1933," Econometrica, Vol. 1, October 1933, pp. 431–44. |
"The Meetings of the Econometric Society in Philadelphia and
Boston, December, 1933," Econometrica, Vol. 2, April 1934, pp. 204–20. |
(With Edward N. Chapman) "The Effect of Climate on Pulmonary
Tuberculosis: A Statistical Study," presented at Pittsburgh, Deco 28, 1934, before
Sections K and N of the American Association for the Advancement of Science; published as
"A Statistical Study of Climate in Relation to Pulmonary Tuberculosis," Journal
of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 30, September 1935, pp. 517–56. |
"Practical Problems in the Methodology of Multiple Correlation
Analysis," presented at Colorado Springs, June 24, 1935, before the Econometric
Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 3, October 1935, p. 476). |
"Multiple Correlation Analysis of Intercorrelated Variates,"
presented at Colorado Springs. July 1935, before the Cowles Commission First Annual
Research Conference. |
"Effects of Building Activity and Other Factors on Security
Prices," presented at St. Louis, January 3, 1936, before the Econometric Society and
the American Association for the Advancement of Science (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 4, April 1936, pp. 190–91). |
"Evidence of Structure in Common Stock Prices," presented at
Colorado Springs. August 7, 1936, before the Cowles Commission Second Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Abstracts, pp. 97–99). |
(With Herbert E. Jones) "Some a Posteriori Probability
Considerations of Stock Market Action," presented at Chicago, December 29, 1936,
before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, April 1937, p.
190); published as "Some a Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action," Econometrica,
Vol. 5, July 1937, pp. 280–94. |
FORREST DANSON (1932– ) |
(With Herbert E. Jones) "Getting the Most in Tax Exempts," Barron's,
Vol. 19, No. 30, July 24, 1939, p. 3. |
HAROLD T. DAVIS (1932– ) |
Tables of the Higher Mathematical Functions, Vol. I,
Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1933. xiii + 377 pp. |
Tables of the Higher Mathematical Functions, Vol. II,
Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1935. xiii + 391 pp. |
A Course in General Mathematics, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia
Press, 1935. xi + 316 pp. |
(With W. F. C. Nelson) The Elements of Statistics, Bloomington,
Indiana, Principia Press, 1935. xi + 424 pp. Second edition, 1937. xii + 434 pp. |
The Theory of Linear Operators, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia
Press. 1936. xiv + 628 pp. |
College Algebra, New York, Prentice-Hall, 1940. xiii + 423 pp. |
The Theory of Econometrics, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia
Press, 1941. xiv + 482 pp. |
The Analysis of Economic Time Series, Bloomington, Indiana,
Principia Press, 1941. xiv + 620 pp. |
"New Technique in the Analysis of Trend Lines," presented at
Indianapolis, May 7, 1932, before the Indiana Section of the Mathematical Association of
America. |
"The Perturbation Problem for Economic Series," presented at
Syracuse, June, 1932, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 1, January, 1933, p. 100). |
"A Technique for the Study of the Interaction of Economic
Series," presented by title at Ames. November 26, 1932, before the American
Mathematical Society. |
"Harmonic Interaction of Economic Series," presented at
Atlantic City, December 26, 1932, before the Econometric Society and Section K of the
American Association for the Advancement of Science ( abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 1, April 1933, p. 205). |
"The Predictable Elements in Economic Series," presented at
Columbus, April 6, 1933, before the Ohio Section of the Mathematical Association of
America. |
"Contributions to the Theory of the Harmonic Analysis of Economic
Series," presented at Chicago, June 29, 1933, before the Econometric Society and
Section K of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 1, October 1933, pp. 434–35). |
"Polynomial Approximations by the Method of Least Squares," Annals
of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 4, August 1933, pp. 155–95. |
"Some Statistical Aspects of Random Series," presented at
Philadelphia. December 28, 1933, before the Econometric Society and the American
Statistical Association (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 2, April 1934, pp.
213–14). |
"Properties of the Polygamma Function," presented at
Lafayette, May 12, 1934, before the Indiana Section of the Mathematical Association of
America. |
"Can Man's Group Activity Be Measured?" presented at
Indianapolis, November 30, 1934, before the Central Association of Science and Mathematics
Teachers. |
"How Periodic Elements Are Discovered in Statistical Series,"
presented at Indianapolis, November 30, 1934, before the Mathematics Section of the
Central Association of Science and Mathematics Teachers. |
"Statistical Proofs of Periodicity in Economic Series,"
presented at Pittsburgh. December 28, 1934, before the Econometric Society, the American
Mathematical Society, the Mathematical Association of America,and Sections A and K of the
American Association for the Advancement of Science. |
"An Extension to Polygamma Functions of a Theorem of Gauss," Bulletin
of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 41, April 1935, pp. 243–47. |
"Some Periodic Aspects of the Stock Market," presented at
Colorado Springs, June 24, 1935, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 3, October 1935, p. 474). |
"The Statistical Validity of Harmonic Analysis," presented at
Colorado Springs, July, 1935, before the Cowles Commission First Annual Research
Conference. |
"Report of the Meeting of the Econometric Society, Colorado
Springs, June 22–24, 1935," Econometrica, Vol. 3, October 1935, pp.
473–76. |
"Statistical Validity of the Forty-Month Cycle in Stock
Prices," presented at St. Louis, Jan. 2, 1936, before the Econometric Society and the
American Association for the Advancement of Science (abstract in Econometrica, Vol.
4, April 1936, pp. 189–90). |
"Mathematics and Social Phenomena," presented at North
Manchester, May 1, 1936, before the Indiana Section of the Mathematical Association of
America. |
"Significance of Analysis of Variance of Time Series,"
presented at Colorado Springs, August 7, 1936, before the Cowles Commission Second Annual
Research Conference (abstract in Conference Abstracts, pp. 99–102). |
"Significance Tests for Periodogram Analysis with Application to
Prices of Common Stocks," presented at Colorado Springs, August 8, 1936, before the
Cowles Commission Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Abstracts, pp.
102–03). |
"The Application of Functionals in Economics," presented at
Denver, June 24, 1937, before the Econometric Society and Sections A and K of the American
Association for the Advancement of Science (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5,
October 1937, p. 384). |
"The Econometric Problem," presented at Colorado Springs,
June 28, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research Conference (abstract in
Conference Report, pp. 11–13). |
"The Fonctionelle Nature of Utility," presented at
Colorado Springs, July 16, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 73–79). |
"Mathematical Adventures in Social Science," presented at
State College, Pennsylvania, September 7, 1937, before the Mathematical Association of
America; published in American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 45, February 1938, pp.
93–109. |
"The Pareto Distribution of Income," presented at Atlantic
City, December 28, 1937, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 184–85). |
(With Herbert E. Jones) "Some Results of the Theory of Random
Series," presented at Indianapolis, December 30, 1937, before the American
Mathematical Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. |
"The Centennial of Cournot's Theory of Riches," presented at
Indianapolis, December 30, 1937, before the History of Science Society and Section L of
the American Association for the Advancement of Science. |
"Table I, Values of J0(x) and J1(x) from
15.50 to 25.00," "Table II, Zeros of J0(x) and J1(x),"
in British Association Mathematical Tables, VI, Bessel Functions, Part I, Cambridge
University Press, 1937, pp. 162–170, 171–73. |
"The Place of Mathematics in the Modern World," presented at
Chicago, February 18, 1938, before a joint meeting of the Men's and Women's Mathematical
Clubs of Chicago. |
"Mathematical Adventures in Social Science," presented at
Pittsburgh, February 23, 1938, before the University of Pittsburgh Chapter of Sigma Xi. |
"Can Economic Phenomena be Measured?" presented at Bethlehem,
March 14, 1938, before the Lehigh University Chapter of Pi Mu Epsilon. |
"Cournot — Pioneer in Scientific Economics," presented
at Colorado Springs, July 5, 1938, before the Cowles Commission Fourth Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 15–16). |
"The Significance of the Curve of Income," presented at
Colorado Springs, July 6, 1938, before the Cowles Commission Fourth Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 19–22). |
"Social Implications of the Pareto Distribution of Special
Abilities," presented at Richmond, December 28, 1938, before Section K of the
American Association for the Advancement of Science. |
"Some Lessons from the Equation of Exchange," presented at
Detroit, Dec. 30, 1938, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 7, April, 1939, pp. 189–90). |
"Mathematical Economics," presented at the Armour Institute,
Chicago, January 12, 1939. |
"The Philosophy of Science," presented at Ames, April 21,
1939, before the Iowa Academy of Science; published in Proceedings of the Iowa Academy
of Science for 1939, Vol. 46, pp. 58–69. |
"The Theory of Utility in Economics," presented at Iowa State
College, Ames. April 24, 1939. |
"The Theory of Economic Time Series," presented at Iowa State
College, Ames, April 24, 1939. |
"Random Numbers," presented at Galesburg, May 13, 1939,
before the Illinois Section of the Mathematical Association of America. |
"The Theory of Random Numbers," presented at Chicago, May 16,
1939, before the Mathematical Club of the University of Chicago. |
"The Postulate of Determinism in Economics," presented at
Evanston, May 20, 1939, before the Chaos Club. |
"Problems in the Theory of Business Cycles," presented at
Colorado Springs, July 3, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 13–16). |
"Relationships between the Distribution of Income and Total Real
Income," presented at Colorado Springs, July 24, 1939, before the Cowles Commission
Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 76–77). |
"The Money Factor in Trends of Trade," presented at Colorado
Springs, July 28, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference
(abstract in Conference Report, pp. 92–93). |
"Some Methods in the Analysis of Lag Effects," presented at
Philadelphia, December 27, 1939, before the American Statistical Association and the
Institute of Mathematical Statistics. |
"The Mathematical Analysis of Social Patterns," presented at
Bloomington, May 10, 1940, before the Illinois Section of the Mathematical Association of
America (abstract in American Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 47, November 1940, p.
600). |
"Dynamics of the Business Cycle..' presented at Colorado Springs,
July 1, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in
Conference Report, pp. 11–13). |
"The Economic Interpretation of History," presented at
Colorado Springs, July 26, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 89–91). |
"The Mathematical Interpretation of History," presented at
Cleveland, November 22, 1940, before the general section of the Central Association of
Science and Mathematics Teachers. |
"Mathematics and the Social Sciences," presented at
Cleveland, November 22, 1940, before the mathematics section of the Central Association of
Science and Mathematics Teachers. |
"The Place of Statistics in Science," presented at Evanston,
February 10, 1941, before the Northwestern University Chapter of Sigma Kappa Epsilon. |
"Functionals in the Theory of Economics," presented at Notre
Dame, February 28, 1941, before the Fifth Annual Mathematical Symposium of the University
of Notre Dame. |
"The History of Calculation," presented at Evanston. March
13, 1941, before the Physics Club of Northwestern University. |
"The Economic Theory of History," presented at Rockford,
April 9, 1941, before the Rockford Division of the Institute of Electrical Engineers. |
"The Mathematical Theory of History," presented at Chicago,
April 18, 1941, before the Men’s Mathematics Club of Chicago. |
"Lucretius and His Message to the Modern World," presented at
Evanston, April 23, 1941, before the Eta Sigma Phi classical fraternity. |
"The Statistics of Time Series," in Mathematical
Monographs, edited by R.D. Curtiss, Northwestern University Studies. No. I in
Mathematics and Physics Series, October 1941, pp. 47–85. |
"Mysteries of the Fourth Dimension," presented at Chicago,
December 3, 1941, before Carl Schurz Junior College. |
"The Theory of Runs in Random Data," presented at New York,
December 27, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics. |
JOEL DEAN (1939– ) |
The Management Council Profession, Indiana University
Publications, Social Science Series No. 2, 1940, Bloomington. 1940. 89 pp. |
Statistical Cost Functions of a Hosiery Mill, Studies in
Business Administration. The School of Business, The University of Chicago, Vol. II, No.
4, Chicago. 1941. 116 pp. |
The Relation of Cost to Output for a Leather Belt Shop, New
York, National Bureau of Economic Research. Technical Paper No. 2, 1941. 72 pp. |
"Statistical Cost Curves in Various Industries," presented at
Philadelphia, Dec. 29, 1939, before the American Economic Association and the Econometric
Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 8, April. 1940, pp. 188–89). |
"Alternative Statistical Methods for Estimating Marginal Cost
Functions," presented at Colorado Springs, July 5. 1940, before the Cowles Commission
Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 24–26). |
"Indexes of Prices Farmers Pay," presented at Chicago,
December 27, 1940, before the American Statistical Association. |
"Statistical Cost-Curves and Price Policy," presented at
Notre Dame, March 1, 1941, before the Fifth Annual Mathematical Symposium of the
University of Notre Dame. |
(With Mary Hilton Wise) "An Appraisal of Index Numbers of Prices
Farmers Pay," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 36, June.
1941, pp. 210–18. |
"The Role of Cost Functions in Price Administration,"
presented at New York, December 29, 1941, before the American Economic Association and the
Econometric Society. |
HERBERT E. JONES (1935– ) |
"The Economics of Overhead Costs with Application to
Pumping," presented at Colorado Springs, July 1935, before the Cowles Commission
First Annual Research Conference. |
"Meetings of the Econometric Society in New York City, December
1935, and St. Louis. January, 1936," Econometrica, Vol. 4, April 1936, pp.
184–92. |
"The Nature of Regression Functions in the Correlation Analysis of
Time Series," presented in preliminary form at Colorado Springs, July 21, 1936,
before the Cowles Commission Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference
Report, pp. 43–44), and in final form at Chicago. December 28, 1936, before the
American Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics; published
in Econometrica, Vol. 5, October 1937, pp. 305–25. |
(With Alfred Cowles) "Some a Posteriori Probability Considerations
of Stock Market Action," presented at Chicago, December 29, 1936, before the
Econometric Society ( abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, April 1937, p. 190);
published as "Some a Posteriori Probabilities in Stock Market Action," Econometrica,
Vol. 5, July 1937, pp. 280–294. |
"Some Geometrical Considerations in the General Theory of Fitting
Lines and Planes," Metron, Vol. 13, February 28, 1937, pp. 21–30. |
"The Theory of Runs as Applied to Time Series," presented at
Colorado Springs, July 2, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 33–36). |
(With Harold T. Davis) "Some Results of the Theory of Random
Series," presented at Indianapolis, December 30, 1937, before the American
Mathematical Society and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. |
(With Forrest Danson) "Getting the Most in Tax Exempts," Barron's,
Vol. 19, No. 30, July 24, 1939, p. 3. |
OSCAR LANGE (1939– ) |
"Saving in Process Analysis," Quarterly Journal of
Economics, Vol. 53, August 1939, pp. 620–622. |
"Is the American Economy Contracting?" American Economic
Review, Vol. 29, September 1939, pp. 503–13. |
"The Neo-Classical School in Economics," The Encyclopaedia
of Political Science (in Polish), Warsaw, 1939, Vol. IV, pp. 1–13. |
"Quantification: the Quest for Precision," round-table paper
given at the University of Chicago, December 1, 1939, reported in Eleven Twenty-Six: A
Decade of Social Science Research, Louis Wirth, editor, Chicago, The University of
Chicago Press, 1940, pp. 158–162, 191–193. |
"The Theory of Technological Unemployment," presented at
Colorado Springs, July 22, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 68–72). |
"Complementarity and Interrelations of Shifts in Demand," The
Review of Economic Studies, Vol. 8, October 1940, pp. 58–63 |
"Economic Aspects," in Economic Mobilization,
Washington, American Council on Public Affairs, 1940, pp. 12–28. |
"The Theory of Interest: A Synthetic Approach," presented at
Toronto, December 9, 1940, at the University of Toronto. |
"Price Flexibility, Interest, and Full Employment," presented
at New Orleans, December 28, 1940, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 9, April. 1941, pp. 176–77). |
"The Theory of Technological Unemployment," presented at
Notre Dame, Feb. 28, 1941, before the Fifth Annual Mathematical Symposium of the
University of Notre Dame. |
"The Theory of Imperialism," presented at Madison, March
1941, before the University of Wisconsin. |
"Derivation of Elasticities of Demand and Supply: A Direct
Method," presented at Chicago, Sept. 4, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the
Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 10, January
1942, pp. 93–95). |
"The Foundation of Welfare Economics," presented at Chicago,
September 4, 1941, before the Sixth International Congress for the Unity of Science. |
"The Calculus of Elasticities and Its Application in Economic
Theory," presented at Chicago, October 17, 1941, before the Mathematical Biophysics
Seminar of the University of Chicago. |
"The Stability of Economic Equilibrium," presented at New
York, December 28, 1941, before the Econometric Society. |
DICKSON H. LEAVENS (1936– ) |
Silver Money, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press, 1939. xix +
439 pp. |
"The Accumulation of the Precious Metals in India and China,"
presented at Colorado Springs, July 15, 1936, before the Cowles Commission Second Annual
Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 30–32). |
"Silver at the Second Session of the Seventy-fourth
Congress," Finance and Commerce, Shanghai, Vol. 28, July 29, 1936, pp. 125–27. |
"The Silver Clause in China," American Economic Review,
Vol. 26, December 1936, pp. 650–59. |
"Silver [Review of 1936]," Engineering and Mining Journal,
Vol. 138, February 1937, pp. 55–56. |
"Report of the Chicago Meeting [of the Econometric Society],
December 28–30, 1936," Econometrica, Vol. 5, April 1937, pp. 184–97. |
"Drawings from Rectangular Distributions," presented at
Colorado Springs, July 2, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 31–32). |
"Report of the Denver Meeting [of the Econometric Society], June
24–26, 1937," Econometrica, Vol. 5, October 1937, pp. 384–392. |
"Silver at the First Session of the Seventy-fifth Congress," Financial
News, Bombay, Vol. 5, No.42, October 23, 1937, p. 14; also published in Finance and
Commerce, Shanghai, Vol. 30, November 3, 1937, p. 345. |
"Five Years of American Silver Policy," presented at Atlantic
City, Dec. 27, 1937, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol.
6, April 1938, p. 183); published as "Five Years of Silver Subsidy," The
Annalist, Vol. 51, January 7, 1938, pp. 4–5. |
"Silver [Review of 1937]," Engineering and Mining Journal,
Vol. 139, February 1938, pp. 36, 37, 40. |
"Report of the Atlantic City and Indianapolis Meetings [of the
Econometric Society], December 27–30, 1937," Econometrica, Vol. 6, April
1938, pp. 180–92. |
"International Factors in the Postwar Silver Market,"
presented at Albuquerque, April 25, 1938, before the Southwestern Division, American
Association for the Advancement of Science. |
"A Bead-Sampling Machine for Use in the Class Room,"
presented at Detroit, December 28, 1938, before the American Statistical Association, and
the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. |
"Silver [Review of 1938]," Engineering and Mining Journal,
Vol. 140, February 1939, pp. 37, 38, 46. |
"Report of the Detroit Meeting [of the Econometric Society],
December 27–30, 1938," Econometrica, Vol. 7, April 1939, pp. 167–90. |
"Silver at the First Session of the Seventy-Sixth U. S.
Congress," Finance and Commerce, Shanghai, Vol. 34, September 13, 1939, pp.
229–30; also published in abridged form in Financial News, Bombay, Vol. 7,
September 9, 1939, pp. 17–18. |
(With John J. Croston) "Gold and Silver," chapter in The
Mineral Industry during 1938, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1939, pp. 189–303. |
"Silver and the War: Supplies Ample; Recurrence of 1915–1919
Boom not Likely," The Annalist, Vol. 55, January 4, 1940; p. 7. |
"Report of the Philadelphia Meeting [of the Econometric Society],
December 27–29, 1939," Econometrica, Vol. 8, April 1940, pp. 176–92. |
(With William J. Hail) "Planetary Groupings Recorded in
China," Popular Astronomy, Vol. 48, June 1940, pp. 292–95. |
(With John J. Croston) "Gold and Silver," chapter in The
Mineral Industry during 1939, New York, McGraw-Hill, 1940, pp. 191–286. |
"Rupee Circulation in India," The American Economic Review,
Vol. 31, March 1941, pp. 87–90. |
"Report of the Chicago and New Orleans Meetings [of the
Econometric Society], December 27–30, 1940," Econometrica, Vol. 9, April
1941, pp. 165–184. |
"Debates on Silver in the American Congress," Finance
& Commerce, Shanghai, Vol. 37, May 14, 1941, pp. 488–89; also published in
abridged form in Financial News, Bombay, Vol. 9, No. 10, March 8, 1941, p. 7. |
(With John J. Croston) "Gold and Silver," chapter in The
Mineral Industry during 1940. New York, McGraw-Hill, 1941, pp. 215–91. |
(With Theodore O. Yntema) "An Appraisal of the 1940 [Census]
Sampling Scheme," presented at New York, December 29, 1941, before the American
Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. |
H. GREGG LEWIS (1939– ) |
An Analysis of Changes in the Demand for Steel and in Steel Prices
— 1936–1939. New York, United States Steel Corporation, 1939. 61 pp. |
A Statistical Analysis of the Demand for Steel, 1919–1938,
New York, United States Steel Corporation, 1939. 52 pp. |
The above two pamphlets were included in United States Steel
Corporation T.N.E.C. Papers, 1940, pp. 7–71 and pp. 165–221; and were reprinted
in Hearings Before the Temporary National Economic Committee, Part 26, Washington, 1940,
as Exhibit No. 1412, pp. 13942–81, Exhibit No.1411, pp. 13913–42. |
(With Paul H. Douglas) "Some Problems in the Measurement of Income
Elasticities," Econometrica, Vol. 7, July 1939, pp. 208–20. |
"The Demand for Steel," presented at Colorado Springs, July
2, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in
Conference Report, pp. 15–18). |
"The Nature of the Demand for Steel," presented at Chicago,
December 27, 1940, before the American Statistical Association and the Econometric Society
(abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 9, April 1941, p. 165); published in Journal of
the American Statistical Association, Vol. 36, March, 1941, pp. 110–15. |
"The Outlook," in Economic Mobilization, Washington,
American Council on Public Affairs, 1940, pp. 37–43. |
"On the Probability Distribution of the Partial-Elasticity
Coefficient," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 36,
September 1941, pp. 413–16. |
FRANCIS McINTYRE (1937–1940) |
"Monopolistic Elements in Pricing: The Domestic-Export
Spread," presented at Colorado Springs, July 7, 1937, before the Cowles Commission
Third Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 45–46). |
.'The Cowles Commission Stock Indexes, 1871–1937," presented
at Boulder, November 26, 1937, before the Colorado–Wyoming Social Science
Association. |
"Price Discrimination between Two Markets under Imperfect
Competition and Monopoly," presented at Atlantic City, December 27, 1937, before the
Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, pp.
180–81). |
"International Aspects of the Copper Industry," presented at
Albuquerque, Apr. 25, 1938, before the Southwestern Division, American Association for the
Advancement of Science. |
"Factors Determining Domestic and Foreign Copper
Consumption," presented at Colorado Springs, July 8, 1938, before the Cowles
Commission Fourth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp.
29–30). |
"The Problem of the Stock Price Index Number," Journal of
the American Statistical Association, Vol. 33, September 1938, pp. 557–63. |
"The Nature and Achievements of Foundations for Economic Research
in the United States," presented at Stanford University, October 20, 1938. |
"The Effect of the Undistributed Profits Tax upon the Distribution
of Corporate Earnings — A Statistical Appraisal," presented at Detroit, December
28, 1938, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 7, April,
1939, pp. 176–77); published in Econometrica, Vol. 7, October, 1939, pp.
336–48. |
"The Adaptation of Index-Number Construction to Punched-Card
Equipment," presented at Colorado Springs, July 13, 1939, before the Cowles
Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp.
43–45) . |
"Durable Goods and the Business Cycle," presented at Colorado
Springs, July 17, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference
(abstract in Conference Report, pp. 52–54). |
"Corporate Earnings in Durable Goods Industries in Prosperity and
Depression," presented at Philadelphia, December 28, 1939, before the American
Statistical Association. |
"Some Uses of Iso-Outlay Curves in Economic Analysis,"
presented at Colorado Springs, July 19, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual
Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 64–66). |
"The Effect of the Undistributed Profits Tax: A Reply," Econometrica,
Vol. 8, October 1940, pp. 357–60. |
"The Dilemma of the Conservative," presented at Cleveland,
November 22, 1940, before the Cleveland Chapter of the American Statistical Association. |
"Wholesale Price Indexes," presented at Chicago, Dec. 27,
1940, before the American Statistical Association (published in Journal of the American
Statistical Association, Vol. 36, June 1941, pp. 185–90). |
HORST MENDERSHAUSEN (1938–1939) |
"On the Significance of Professor Douglas' Production
Function," Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 143–53. |
"The Definition of 'Equal Well-Being' in Frisch's
Double-Expenditure Method," Econometrica, Vol. 6, July 1938, pp. 285–86. |
"’Clearing Variates' in Confluence Analysis," presented
at Colorado Springs, July 7, 1938, before the Cowles Commission Fourth Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 24–26) ; published in Journal of
the American Statistical Association, Vol. 34, March 1939, pp. 93–105. |
"The Relationship between Income and Savings of American
Metropolitan Families," presented at Detroit, December 29, 1938, before the
Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 7, April 1939, pp.
180–81); published in American Economic Review, Vol. 29, September 1939, pp.
521–37. |
"Differences in Consumers' Savings between American Communities of
Different Size and Location," presented at Milwaukee, June 19, 1939, before Section K
of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. |
"On the Measurement of the Degree of Inequality of Income
Distributions," presented at Colorado Springs, July 19, 1939, before the Cowles
Commission Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp.
63–65). |
"On the Significance of Professor Douglas. Production Function: A
Correction," Econometrica, Vol. 7, October 1939, p. 362. |
"Eliminating Changing Seasonals by Multiple Regression
Analysis," Review of Economic Statistics, Vol. 21, November 1939, pp.
171–77. |
"Changing Methods of Diverting the National Income to War
Purposes," presented at Philadelphia, December 28. 1939, before the Econometric
Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 8. April 1940, pp. 179–80). |
|
| JACOB L. MOSAK (1939– ) |
An Analysis of the Demand for Steel in the Automobile Industry.
New York, United States Steel Corporation, 1939. 28 pp. Included in United States Steel
Corporation T.N.E.C. Papers, 1940, pp. 73–103, and reprinted in Hearings before
the Temporary National Economic Committee, Part 26, Washington, 1940, as Exhibit No. 1413,
pp. 13981–98. |
General Equilibrium Theory in International Trade, thesis
presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of
Philosophy at the University of Chicago, 1941 ( typed). |
"The Least-Squares Standard Error of the Coefficient of Elasticity
of Demand," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 34, June
1939, pp. 353–61. |
"Some Theoretical Implications of the Statistical Analysis of
Demand and Cost Functions for Steel," presented at Chicago, December 27, 1940, before
the American Statistical Association and the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 9, April 1941, p. 167); published in Journal of the American Statistical
Association, Vol. 36, March 1941, pp. 100–09. |
"The General-Equilibrium Theory of International Trade,"
presented at Chicago, December 28, 1940, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 9, April 1941, p. 171). |
"Wage Increases and Unemployment," American Economic
Review, Vol. 31, June 1941, pp. 330–32. |
"On the Workings of a General Equilibrium System," presented
at Chicago, September 4, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 10, January 1942, pp. 93). |
| WILLIAM F.C. NELSON (1932–1936) |
(With Harold T. Davis) The Elements of Statistics. Bloomington,
Indiana, Principia Press, 1935. xi + 424 pp. Second edition. 1937. xii + 434 pp. |
"A New Index of Investment Experience in American Industrial and
Public Utility Common Stocks, 1872–1906," presented at Berkeley, June 22, 1934,
before the Econometric Society, the American Statistical Association, and Section K of the
American Association for the Advancement of Science (abstract in Econometrica, Vol.
2, October 1934, pp. 444). |
"Painting and Prices," presented at Colorado Springs, June
24, 1935, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vo1. 3, October
1935, pp. 475–76). |
CHARLES F. ROOS (1934–1937) |
Dynamic Economics, Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press. 1934.
xvi + 275 pp. |
NRA Economic Planning. Bloomington, Indiana, Principia Press,
1937. xxii + 596 pp. |
"Economic Theory of the Shorter Work Week," presented at
Pittsburgh, December 28, 1934, before the Econometric Society; published in Econometrica,
Vol. 3, January 1935, pp. 21–39. |
"What Do Time-Series Correlation Coefficients Show?"
presented at Pittsburgh, Dec. 28, 1934, before the Econometric Society, the American
Mathematical Society, the Mathematical Association of America, and Sections A and K of the
American Association for the Advancement of Science. |
"Labor vs. Machine Cost: Some Theoretical and Statistical Studies
of Replacement of Men by Machines," presented at Pittsburgh, December 29, 1934,
before the Econometric Society and Sections K and M of the American Association for the
Advancement of Science. |
"Cost Experiments of the NRA," presented at Colorado Springs,
June 24, 1935, before the Econometric Society. |
"Meetings of the Econometric Society in Chicago and Pittsburgh,
December, 1934," Econometrica, Vol. 3, July 1935, pp. 345–52. |
"Lag Analysis with Special Reference to the Building
Industry," presented at Colorado Springs, July, 1935, before the Cowles Commission
First Annual Research Conference. |
"Annual Survey of Statistical Information: Capital Formation and
the Flow of National Income in the United States," Econometrica, Vol. 3,
October 1935, pp. 366–75. |
"Effects of Credit, Building Costs, and Rent on Building
Activity," presented at St. Louis. January 3, 1936, before the Econometric Society
(abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 4, April 1936, p. 191). |
"Some Economic Effects of Wage Regulation on Interstate
Trade," presented at Colorado Springs, July 25, 1936, before the Cowles Commission
Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Abstracts. pp. 60–62). |
"A General Invariant Criterion of Fit for Lines, Planes, and
Functions Expandable in Series, Where All Variates Are Subject to Error," presented
in preliminary form at Colorado Springs, August 5, 1936, before the Cowles Commission
Second Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Abstracts, pp. 93–95), and
in final form at Chicago. December 28, 1936, before the American Statistical Association
and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics; published as "A General Invariant
Criterion of Fit for Lines and Planes Where All Variables Are Subject to Error," Metron,
Vol. 13, 1937, pp. 3–20. |
"Annual Survey of Statistical Techniques: The Correlation and
Analysis of Time Series-Part II," Econometrica, Vol. 4, October 1936, pp.
368–81. |
"New Indexes of Stock Prices and Yields and Their Relation to the
Theories of Capital and Savings," presented at Chicago, December 28, 1936, before the
Econometric Society, the American Statistical Association, and the Institute of
Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, April 1937, pp.
184–85). |
"Measuring Economic Impacts," presented at Denver, June 25,
1937, before the Econometric Society, Section K of the American Association for the
Advancement of Science, the American Sociological Society, and the Sociological Research
Association (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5, October 1937, pp. 388–89). |
"The Relation of Stock Prices to Earnings and Other Factors,"
presented at Colorado Springs, June 29, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual
Research Conference, abstract in Conference Report, pp. 17–19). |
"The Dynamics of the Security Market." presented at Colorado
Springs, July 1, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research Conference
(abstract in Conference Report, pp. 26–31). |
"Dynamics of the Security Markets," presented at Atlantic
City, December 28, 1937, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 185–86). |
(With Victor S. von Szeliski) "Economic Balance and Its Relation
to Production and Pricing Problems," presented at Atlantic City, December 29, 1937,
before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, pp.
189–90). |
JOHN H. SMITH (1940– ) |
Statistical Deflation in the Analysis of Economic Series, thesis
presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of
Philosophy at the University of Chicago, privately printed, Chicago, 1941. vi + 123 pp. |
Added Column Method for Computing Multiple Correlation Constants.
The University of Chicago Bookstore, 1941. 33 pp. |
"The Use of Weighted Regressions in the Analysis of Economic
Series," presented at Colorado Springs, July 16, 1940, before the Cowles Commission
Sixth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 53–55). |
"Curve Fitting by Cumulative Addition," presented at Chicago,
September 3, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the Institute of Mathematical
Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 10, January 1942, pp. 91–92). |
"Confidence Intervals for the Unknown Median of Any Type of
Universe," presented at New York, December 27, 1941, before the Econometric Society
and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. |
GERHARD TINTNER (1936–1937) |
"A Note on Distribution of Income over Time," Econometrica,
Vol. 4, January 1936, pp. 60–66. |
"Internationale Konjunkturforschung," Der Oesterreichische
Volkswirt, Vol. 28, July 4, 1936, pp. 783–84. |
"Expectations and the Statistical Theory of Errors,"
presented at Chicago, December 29, 1936, before the Econometric Society (abstract in Econometrica,
Vol. 5, April 1937, pp. 189–90). |
"Monopoly over Time," Econometrica, Vol. 5, April
1937, pp. 160–70. |
"The Economic Meaning of Functionals," presented at Denver,
June 24, 1937, before the Econometric Society and Sections A and K of the American
Association for the Advancement of Science ( abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 5,
October 1937, p. 385). |
"The Maximization of Utility over Time," presented at
Colorado Springs, July 21, 1937, before the Cowles Commission Third Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 91–93); published in Econometrica,
Vol. 6, April 1938, pp. 154–58. |
"A Dynamic Theory of Duopoly: A Problem in Econometrics,"
presented at Iowa City, November 26, 1937, before the American Mathematical Society
(abstract in Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 44, January 1938,
p. 29). |
"The Definition and Dynamic Significance of Randomness in Time
Series," presented at Atlantic City, December 27, 1937, before the Econometric
Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 6, April 1938, p. 181). |
ABRAHAM WALD (1938–1939) |
"The Approximative Determination of Indifference Surfaces by Means
of Engel Curves." presented at Colorado Springs, July 12, 1938, before the Cowles
Commission Fourth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp.
39–41); published in Econometrica, Vol. 8, April 1940, pp. 144–75. |
"Generalization of the Inequality of Markoff," Annals of
Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 9, December 1938, pp. 244–55. |
"A Contribution to the Theory of Statistical Estimation,"
presented at Detroit, December 27, 1938, before the Institute of Mathematical Statistics
(abstract in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 10, March 1939, pp.
86–87). |
"Criteria for a Constant Preference Scale Expressed in Terms of
Engel Curves," presented at Detroit, December 29, 1938, before the Econometric
Society (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 7, April 1939, pp. 179–80). |
"Lower and Upper Limits of a Distribution Function Determined by
Moments and Inequalities Satisfied by Moments," presented at New York, February 25,
1939, before the American Mathematical Society (abstract in Bulletin of the American
Mathematical Society, Vol. 45, March 1939, p. 238). |
(With J. Wolfowitz) "Confidence Limits for Continuous Distribution
Functions." presented at New York, Feb. 25, 1939, before the American Mathematical
Society (abstract in Bulletin of the American Mathematical Society, Vol. 45, March
1939, pp. 232–33); published in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 10,
June 1939, pp. 105–18. |
"Long Cycles as a Result of Repeated Integration," American
Mathematical Monthly, Vol. 46, March 1939, pp. 136–41. |
"The Fitting of Straight Lines if Both Variables Are Subject to
Error," presented at Colorado Springs, July 6, 1939, before the Cowles Commission
Fifth Annual Research Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 25–28);
published in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 11, September 1940, pp.
284–300. |
"Limits of a Distribution Function Determined by Absolute
Moments," Transactions of the American Mathematical Association, Vol. 46,
September 1939, pp. 280–306. |
"A New Formula for the Index of Cost of Living," Econometrica,
Vol. 7, October 1939, pp. 319–31. |
"Contributions to the Theory of Statistical Estimation and Testing
Hypotheses," Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 10, December 1939, pp.
299–326. |
"A Note on the Analysis of Variance with Unequal Class
Frequencies," presented by title at Philadelphia, December 27, 1939, before the
Institute of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Annals of Mathematical Statistics,
Vol. 11, March 1940, pp. 114–15); published in Annals of Mathematical Statistics,
Vol. 11, March 1940, pp. 96–100. |
(With J. Wolfowitz) "On a Test whether Two Samples Are from the
Same Population," presented at Philadelphia, December 27, 1939, before the Institute
of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 11,
March 1940, p. 112); published in Annals of Mathematical Statistics, Vol. 11, June,
1940, pp. 147–62. |
THEODORE O. YNTEMA (1939– ) |
Professor Yntema planned and directed the research leading to the
following papers published first in pamphlet form in 1939 and then collected in United
States Steel Corporation T.N.E.C. Papers, 1940, Vol. 1, 411 pp. They were also
reprinted as exhibits in Hearings before the Temporary National Economic Committee,
Congress of the United States, Seventy-sixth Congress, Third Session, Pursuant to Public
Resolution No. 113 (Seventy-fifth Congress). Part 26. Iron and Steel Industry, United
States Steel Corporation Studies, Prices and Costs. January 23, 24, and 25, 1940.
Washington, Government Printing Office, 1940, pp. 13585–14128. T.N.E.C. Exhibit
numbers and pages in the Hearings are given in parentheses. |
No.1. "An Analysis of Changes in the Demand for Steel and in Steel
Prices, 1936–1939," pp. 7–71 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No.1412, pp. 13942–81). |
No.2 "An Analysis of the Demand for Steel in the Automobile
Industry," pp. 73–103 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1413, pp. 13981–98). |
No.3. "An Analysis of the Demand for Steel in the Railroad
Industry, " pp. 105–35 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1414, pp. 13999–14016). |
No.4. "An Analysis of the Demand for Steel in the Container
Industry," pp. 137–64 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1415, pp. 14016–32). |
No.5. "A Statistical Analysis of the Demand for Steel,
1919–1938," pp. 165–221 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1411, pp. 13913–42). |
No.6. "An Analysis of Steel Prices, Volume and Costs Controlling
Limitations on Price Reductions," pp. 223–302 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 1416, pp.
14032–82). |
No.7. "An Analysis of Steel Prices, Volume and Costs Controlling
Limitations on Price Reductions — Summary," pp. 303–23 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit
No. 1417, pp. 14082–94). |
No.8. "The Distribution of Steel to Major Consuming
Industries," pp. 325–36 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 2180, pp. 14095–101). |
No.9. "Indexes of Mill-Net Yields on Products Shipped by United
States Steel Corporation Subsidiaries," pp. 337–54 (T.N.E.C. Exhibit No. 2181,
pp. 14101–09). |
"Competitive Norms in Durable-Goods Industries," presented at
Colorado Springs, July 10, 1939, before the Cowles Commission Fifth Annual Research
Conference (abstract in Conference Report, pp. 32–34). |
"Quantification: the Quest for Precision," round-table paper
given at the University of Chicago, December 1, 1939, reported in Eleven Twenty-Six: A
Decade of Social Science Research, Louis Wirth, editor, Chicago, The University of
Chicago Press, 1940, pp. 170–72, 182. |
"Organization for National Defense," presented at Colorado
Springs. July 2, 1940, before the Cowles Commission Sixth Annual Research Conference. |
"Some Economic Problems in the Expansion of Capacity to Produce
Military Goods," presented at New Orleans, December 30, 1940, before the American
Economic Association, published in American Economic Review, Vol. 30, February
1941, pp. 373–78. |
"Emergency Price Control," presented at Chicago, June 6,1941,
before the University of Chicago Law School Conference on Public Law (printed in Report
of the Conference, 1941, pp. 19–31). |
"Competition as a Norm of Economic Behavior," The Journal
of Business, Vol. 14, July 1941, pp. 270–83. |
"Weights to Compensate for Transformation in Curve Fitting,"
presented at Chicago, September 3, 1941, before the Econometric Society and the Institute
of Mathematical Statistics (abstract in Econometrica, Vol. 10, January 1942, p.
91). |
"Relation of Price Control to Fiscal Policy," in Price
Problems in a Defense Economy, New York, National Bureau of Economic Research,
privately printed. 1941, pp. 115–20. |
"The Future Role of Large-Scale Enterprise," presented at
Chicago, September 23, 1941, in connection with the celebration of the Fiftieth
Anniversary of the University of Chicago; published in The Journal of Political Economy,
Vol. 49, December 1941, pp. 833–48. |
"Major Factors Having Current Bearing on Wage Determination,"
presented at Chicago, October 17, 1941, before the Eighth Annual Midwest Conference on
Industrial Relations. |
"The Impact of the Defense Program on Business," presented at
Chicago, December 4, 1941, before the Citizens Board of Sponsors of the University of
Chicago. |
(With Dickson H. Leavens) "An Appraisal of the 1940 [Census]
Sampling Scheme," presented at New York, December 29, 1941, before the American
Statistical Association and the Institute of Mathematical Statistics. |
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