DISCUSSION PAPERS, 2009 (Nos. 1685–1743)

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No. Author(s) Title
CFDP 1685 Nordhaus, William D. "The Perils of the Learning Model For Modeling Endogenous Technological Change" (January 2009) [19pp, abstract]
CFDP 1686 Nordhaus, William D. "An Analysis of the Dismal Theorem" (January 2009) [26pp, abstract]
CFDP 1687 Wang, Qiying
Phillips, Peter C.B.
"Asymptotic Theory for Zero Energy Density Estimation with Nonparametric Regression Applications" (January 2009) [26pp, abstract] Reprinted in Econometric Theory (2011), 27(2): 235-259 [CFP 1319]
CFDP 1688 Cheng, Xu
Phillips, Peter C.B.
"Cointegrating Rank Selection in Models with Time-Varying Variance" (January 2009) [27pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Econometrics (August 2012), 169(2): 155-165 [CFP 1362]
CFDP 1689 Phillips, Peter C.B. "Bootstrapping I(1) Data" (January 2009) [11pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Econometrics (2010), 158: 280-284 [CFP 1310]
CFDP 1690 Giraitis, Liudas
Phillips, Peter C.B.
"Mean and Autocovariance Function Estimation Near the Boundary of Stationarity" (January 2009) [34pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Econometrics (August 2012), 169(2): 166-178 [CFP 1363]
CFDP 1691 Chen, Xiaohong
Wu, Wei Biao
Yi, Yanping
"Efficient Estimation of Copula-based Semiparametric Markov Models" (February 2009, updated March 2009) [55pp, abstract] Reprinted in Annals of Statistics (2009), 37(6B): 4214-4253 [CFP 1284]
CFDP 1692 Llavador, Humberto
Roemer, John E.
Silvestre, Joaquim
"Intergenerational Justice when Future Worlds Are Uncertain" (April 2009) [48pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Mathematical Economics (2010) 46(5): 728-761 [CFP 1324]
CFDP 1693 Roemer, John E. "The Ethics of Distribution in a Warming Planet" (April 2009) [47pp, abstract] Reprinted in Environmental and Resource Economics (2011) 48(3): 363-390 [CFP 1321]
CFDP 1694 Chen, Xiaohong
Hansen, Lars P.
Scheinkman, José
"Principal Components and Long Run Implications of Multivariate Diffusions" (April 2009) [51pp, abstract] Reprinted in Annals of Statistics (2009), 37(6B): 4279-4312 [CFP 1283]
CFDP 1695 Bonatti, Alessandro
Hörner, Johannes
"Collaborating" (April 2009, revised November 2009) [102pp, abstract] Reprinted in American Economic Review (April 2011), 101: 632-663 [doi:10.1257/aer.101.2.632]
CFDP 1696 Campbell, John Y.
Shiller, Robert J.
Viceira, Luis M.
"Understanding Inflation-Indexed Bond Markets" (March 2009) [47pp, abstract] Reprinted in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Spring 2009), 79-120 [doi:10.1353/eca.0.0045]
CFDP 1697 Bergemann, Dirk
Morris, Stephen
"Rationalizable Implementation" (March 2009) [21pp, abstract]
CFDP 1697R Bergemann, Dirk
Morris, Stephen
Tercieux, Olivier
"Rationalizable Implementation" (March 2009, revised January 2010) [29pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Economic Theory (May 2011), 146(3): 1253–1274 [CFP 1328]
CFDP 1698 Miller, David A.
Rozen, Kareen
"Monitoring with Collective Memory: Forgiveness for Optimally Empty Promises" (June 2009, revised April 2010) [44pp, abstract]
CFDP 1699 Phillips, Peter C.B.
Wu, Yangru
Yu, Jun
"Explosive Behavior in the 1990s Nasdaq: When Did Exuberance Escalate Asset Values?" (June 2009) [36pp, abstract] Reprinted in International Economic Review  (February 2011), 52(1): 201–226 [CFP 1349]
CFDP 1700 Kasparis, Ioannis
Phillips, Peter C.B.
"Dynamic Misspecification in Nonparametric Cointegrating Regression" (June 2009) [32pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Econometrics (June 2012), 168(2): 270-284 [CFP 1374]
CFDP 1701 Han, Chirok
Cho, Jin Seo
Phillips, Peter C.B.
"Infinite Density at the Median and the Typical Shape of Stock Return Distributions" (June 2009) [32pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (April 2011), 29(2): 282-294 [CFP 1338]
CFDP 1702 Phillips, Peter C.B.
Su, Liangjun
"Nonparametric Structural Estimation via Continuous Location Shifts in an Endogenous Regressor" (June 2009) [42pp, abstract] Reprinted as "Non-parametric Regression under Location Shifts." Econometrics Journal (October 2011), 14(3): 457-486 [CFP 1346]
CFDP 1703 Cho, Jin Seo
Han, Chirok
Phillips, Peter C.B.
"LAD Asymptotics under Conditional Heteroskedasticity with Possibly Infinite Error Densities" (June 2009) [10pp, abstract] Reprinted in Econometric Theory (2010), 26(3): 953-962 [doi:10.1017/S0266466609990703]
CFDP 1704 Phillips, Peter C.B.
Su, Liangjun
"A Paradox of Inconsistent Parametric and Consistent Nonparametric Regression" (June 2009) [31pp, abstract]
CFDP 1705 Nordhaus, William D. "Measurement of Income with Time Use with Applications to Hedonic Indicators of Happiness and Misery"(June 2009) [24pp, abstract]
CFDP 1706 Fair, Ray C. "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability" (June 2009, updated August 2010) [20pp, abstract]
CFDP 1707 Nordhaus, William D.
Oneal, John R.
Russett, Bruce
"The Effects of the Security Environment on Military Expenditures: Pooled Analyses of 165 Countries, 1950-2000" (June 2009, revised October 2009) [34pp, abstract]
CFDP 1708 Geanakoplos, John
Karatzas, Ioannis
Shubik, Martin
Sudderth, William D.
"Inflationary Equilibrium in a Stochastic Economy with Independent Agents" (June 2009) [30pp, abstract]
CFDP 1709 Geanakoplos, John
Dubey, Pradeep
"Credit Cards and Inflation" [50pp, abstract] Reprinted in Games and Economic Behavior (November 2010), 70(2): 325-353 [CFP 1330]
CFDP 1710 Dubey, Pradeep
Geanakoplos, John
"Grading Exams: 100, 99, 98,...or A, B, C?" (June 2009) [37pp, abstract] Reprinted in Games and Economic Behavior (2010), 69(1): 72-94 [CFP 1302]
CFDP 1711 Geanakoplos, John
Zeldes, Stephen P.
"Market Valuation of Accrued Social Security Benefits" (June 2009) [31pp, abstract] Reprinted in Deborah Lucas, ed., Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, pp. 213-233 [CFP 1303]
CFDP 1712 Qin, Cheng-Zhong
Shubik, Martin
"Selecting a Unique Competitive Equilibrium with Default Penalties" (July 2009) [20pp, abstract]
CFDP 1713 Linton, Oliver
Song, Kyungchul
Whang, Yoon-Jae
"An Improved Bootstrap Test of Stochastic Dominance" (July 2009) [43pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Econometrics (February 2010), 154(2): 186-202
CFDP 1714 Anderson, Gordon
Linton, Oliver
Whang, Yoon-Jae
"Nonparametric Estimation of a Polarization Measure" (July 2009) [48pp, abstract]
CFDP 1715 Geanakoplos, John "The Leverage Cycle" (July 2009) [54pp, abstract]
CFDP 1715R Geanakoplos, John "The Leverage Cycle" (July 2009, revised January 2010) [57pp, abstract] Reprinted in D. Acemoglu, K. Rogoff and M. Woodford, eds., NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2009. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, vol. 24, pp. 1-65 [CFP 1304]
CFDP 1716 Nordhaus, William D. "Alternative Policies and Sea-Level Rise in the RICE-2009 Model" (August 2009) [28pp, abstract]
CFDP 1717 Kamstra, Mark
Shiller, Robert J.
"The Case for Trills: Giving the People and Their Pension Funds a Stake in the Wealth of the Nation" (August 2009) [30pp, abstract]
CFDP 1718 Berry, Steven T.
Haile, Philip A.
"Nonparametric Identification of Multinomial Choice Demand Models with Heterogeneous Consumers" (August 2009, updated March 2010) [42pp, abstract]
CFDP 1719 Farmer, J. Doyne
Geanakoplos, John
"Hyperbolic Discounting Is Rational: Valuing the Far Future with Uncertain Discount Rates" (August 2009) [17pp, abstract]
CFDP 1720 Kitamura, Yuichi
Otsu, Taisuke
Evdokimov, Kirill
"Robustness, Infinitesimal Neighborhoods, and Moment Restrictions" (August 2009) [39pp, abstract] Reprinted in Econometrica (May 2013), 81(3): 1185-1201 [CFP 1382]
CFDP 1721 Gautier, Eric
Kitamura, Yuichi
"Nonparametric Estimation in Random Coefficients Binary Choice Models" (August 2009) [50pp, abstract] Reprinted in Econometrica (March, 2013), 81(2): 581-607 [CFP 1378]
CFDP 1722 Kitamura, Yuichi
Santos, Andres
Shaikh, Azeem M.
"On the Asymptotic Optimality of Empirical Likelihood for Testing Moment Restrictions" (August 2009) [31pp, abstract] Reprinted in Econometrica (January 2012), 80(1): 413-423 [http://dx.doi.org/10.3982/ECTA8773]
CFDP 1723 Engel, Eduardo
Fischer, Ronald
Galetovic, Alexander
"Soft Budgets and Renegotiations in Public-Private Partnerships" (August 2009) [34pp, abstract]
CFDP 1724 Marmer, Vadim
Otsu, Taisuke
"Optimal Comparison of Misspecified Moment Restriction Models under a Chosen Measure of Fit" (August 2009, Revised July 2011) [35pp, abstract] Reprinted Journal of Econometrics (October 2012), 170(2): 538-550 [doi:10.1016/j.jeconom.2012.05.021]
CFDP 1725 Gilboa, Itzhak
Samuelson, Larry
"Subjectivity in Inductive Inference" (August 2009) [48pp, abstract]
CFDP 1726 Hörner, Johannes
Samuelson, Larry
"Incentives for Experimenting Agents" (September 2009) [65pp, abstract]
CFDP 1726R Hörner, Johannes
Samuelson, Larry
"Incentives for Experimenting Agents" (September 2009, Revised January 2012) [141pp, abstract]
CFDP 1726RR Hörner, Johannes
Samuelson, Larry
"Incentives for Experimenting Agents" (September 2009, Revised March 2013) [151pp, abstract]
CFDP 1726R3 Hörner, Johannes
Samuelson, Larry
"Incentives for Experimenting Agents" (September 2009, Revised June 2013) [156pp, abstract]
CFDP 1727 Fair, Ray C. "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits" (September 2009, revised February 2010) [24pp, abstract] Reprinted in Jeffrey Brown (ed.), Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, University of Chicago Press, 2010, Ch. 4
CFDP 1728 Fair, Ray C. "Has Macro Progressed?" (September 2009, updated July 2010) [31pp, abstract]
CFDP 1729 Qin, Cheng-Zhong
Shapley, Lloyd S.
Shubik, Martin
"Marshallian Money, Welfare, and Side-Payments" (September 2009) [26pp, abstract]
CFDP 1730 Huber, Juergen
Shubik, Martin
Sunder, Shyam
"Default Penalty as a Disciplinary and Selection Mechanism in Presence of Multiple Equilibria" (October 2009) [43pp, abstract]
CFDP 1730R Huber, Juergen
Shubik, Martin
Sunder, Shyam
"Default Penalty as a Selection Mechanism among Multiple Equilibria" (October 2009, Revised February 2011, Revised December 2012) [37pp, abstract]
CFDP 1731 Ai, Chunrong
Chen, Xiaohong
"Semiparametric Efficiency Bound for Models of Sequential Moment Restrictions Containing Unknown Functions" (October 2009) [40pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Econometrics (October 2012), 170(2): 442-457 [CFP 1366]
CFDP 1732 Berry, Steven T.
Haile, Philip A.
"Identification of a Heterogeneous Generalized Regression Model with Group Effects" (October 2009) [20pp, abstract]
CFDP 1733 Shubik, Martin "El Farol Revisited: A Note on Emergence, Game Theory and Society" (October 2009) [4pp, abstract]
CFDP 1734 Chen, Yi-Chun
Di Tillio, Alfredo
Faingold, Eduardo
Xiong, Siyang
"Uniform Topologies on Types" (October 2009) [37pp, abstract]
CFDP 1735 Maggi, Giovanni
Staiger, Robert W.
"Breach, Remedies and Dispute Settlement in Trade Agreements" (October 2009) [52pp, abstract] Reprinted in Quarterly Journal of Economics (February 2011), 126(1): 475-515 [doi:org/10.1093/qje/qjq005]
CFDP 1736 Vives, Xavier "Strategic Supply Function Competition with Private Information" (October 2009) [79pp, abstract]
CFDP 1737 Hörner, Johannes
Rosenberg, Dinah
Solan, Eilon
Vieille, Nicolas
"On a Markov Game with One-Sided Incomplete Information" (November 2009) [24pp, abstract] Reprinted in Operations Research (2010), 58(4): 1107-1115 [doi:10.1287/opre.1100.0829]
CFDP 1738 Herrera, Helios
Hörner, Johannes
"Biased Social Learning" (November 2009) [35pp, abstract] Reprinted in Games and Economic Behavior (July 2013), 80: 131-146 [CFP 1380]
CFDP 1739 Hörner, Johannes
Lovo, Stefano
Tomala, Tristan
"Belief-free Equilibria in Games with Incomplete Information: Characterization and Existence" (November 2009) [70pp, abstract, Supplemental Appendix] Reprinted in Journal of Economic Theory (September 2011), 146(5): 1770-1795 [doi: 10.1016/j.jet.2011.06.001]
CFDP 1740 Lee, Sokbae
Whang, Yoon-Jae
"Nonparametric Tests of Conditional Treatment Effects" (November 2009) [68pp, abstract]
CFDP 1741 Lee, Yoonseok
Okui, Ryo
"A Specification Test for Instrumental Variables Regression with Many Instruments" (December 2009) [28pp, abstract]
CFDP 1742 Hörner, Johannes
Sugaya, Takuo
Takahashi, Satoru
Vieille, Nicolas
"Recursive Methods in Discounted Stochastic Games: An Algorithm for delta Approaching 1 and a Folk Theorem" (December 2009, revised August 2010) [46pp, abstract] Reprinted in Econometrica (July 2011), 79(4): 1277-1318 [CFP 1333]
CFDP 1743 Hörner, Johannes
Skrzypacz, Andrzej
"Selling Information" (December 2009, revised August 2010) [55pp, abstract]
CFDP 1743R Hörner, Johannes
Skrzypacz, Andrzej
"Selling Information" (December 2009, Revised August 2011) [58pp, abstract]
CFDP 1743RR Hörner, Johannes
Skrzypacz, Andrzej
"Selling Information" (December 2009, Revised November 2012) [51pp, abstract]
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