CFDP 397, "On Controlling the Economy to Win Elections" (1975) [50pp]

CFDP 418, "The Effects of Economic Events on Votes for President" (1976) [33pp] Reprinted in Review of Economics and Statistics (May 1978), 60(2): 159-173 [CFP 463]

CFDP 420, "The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance" (1976) [31pp] Reprinted in International Economic Review (June 1978), 19(2): 289-309 [CFP 467]

CFDP 430, "A Model of the World Economy" (1976) [44pp]

CFDP 434, "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator" (1976) [6pp] Reprinted in Review of Economics and Statistics (May 1978), 60(2): 159-173 [CFP 458]

CFDP 436, "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs" (1976) [25pp] Reprinted in Journal of Political Economy (1978), 86(11): 45-61 [CFP 457]

CFDP 442, "Can the Government Affect Real Output?: A Critique of Models with Rational Expectations" (1977) [18pp] Reprinted in Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking (November 1978), 10(4): 411-417 [CFP 475]

CFDP 446, "The Sensitivity of Fiscal-Policy Effects to Assumptions About the Behavior of the Federal Reserve" (1977) [39pp] Reprinted in Econometrica (September 1978), 46(5): 1165-1179 [CFP 474]

CFDP 451, "A Model of the Balance of Payments" (1977) [22pp] Reprinted in Journal of International Economics (1979), 9: 25-46 [CFP 483]

CFDP 452, "Policy Effects in a Model of the Balance of Payments" (1977) [30pp]

CFDP 459, "An Analysis of a Macroeconometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets" (1977) [27pp] Reprinted in American Economic Review (September 1979), 69(4): 539-552 [CFP 490]

CFDP 465, "On Modeling the Economic Linkages Among Countries" (1977) [49pp] Reprinted in R. Dornbusch and J.A. Frenkel (eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979, pp. 209-245 [CFP 478]

CFDP 480, "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models" (1978) [41pp] Reprinted in International Economic Review (June 1980), 21(2): 356-378 [CFP 507]

CFDP 492, "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models" (1978) [23pp] Reprinted in Journal of Political Economy (1979), 87(4): 702-718 [CFP 489]

CFDP 511, "An Estimate of the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in a Macro-economic Model" (1978) [19pp]

CFDP 519, "Full Information Estimates of a Nonlinear Macroeconometric Model" (1979) (with William R. Parke) [34pp] Reprinted in Journal of Econometrics (1980), 13(3): 269-291 [CFP 502]

CFDP 541, "A Multicountry Econometric Model" (1979) [78pp]

CFDP 541R, "A Multicountry Econometric Model" (1981) [81pp]

CFDP 564, "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models" (1980) (with John B. Taylor) [41pp] Reprinted in Econometrica (July 1983), 51(4): 1169-118 [CFP 575]

CFDP 592, "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries" (1981) [40pp] Reprinted in Journal of Political Economy (1982), 90(3): 507-535 [CFP 545]

CFDP 597, "Estimated Effects of Relative Prices on Trade Shares" (1981) [23pp]

CFDP 692, "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle" (1984) [14pp] Reprinted in American Economic Review (March 1985), 75(1): 239-245 [CFP 601]

CFDP 693, "Effects of Expected Future Government Deficits on Current Economic Activity" (1984) [21pp]

CFDP 703, "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models" (1984) (with Lewis Alexander) [41pp]

CFDP 704, "A Comparison of the Michigan and Fair Models: Further Results" (1984) (with Lewis Alexander) [26pp, abstract]

CFDP 707, "Estimated Trade-Offs Between Unemployment and Inflation" (1984) [32pp]

CFDP 718, "The Use of Expected Future Variables in Macroeconometric Models" (1984) [34pp, abstract]

CFDP 808, "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale" (1986) (with Matthew D. Shapiro, Kathryn M. Dominguez) [38pp, abstract] Reprinted in American Economic Review (1988), 78(4): 595-596 [CFP 710]

CFDP 810, "Interest Rate and Exchange Rate Determination" (1986) [43pp, abstract]

CFDP 813, "International Evidence on the Demand for Money" (1986) [17pp, abstract] Reprinted in Review of Economics and Statistics (August 1987), 69(3): 473-480 [CFP 732]

CFDP 815, "Sources of Output and Price Variability in a Macroeconometric Model" (1987) [26pp, abstract]

CFDP 818, "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model" (1987) [23pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Monetary Economics (1988), 22: 301-315 [CFP 734]

CFDP 831, "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update" (1987) [14pp, abstract] Reprinted in Political Behavior (1988), 10(2): 168-179 [CFP 735]

CFDP 832, "Inference in Econometric Models with Structural Change" (1987) (with Donald W.K. Andrews) [60pp, abstract] Reprinted in Review of Economic Studies (1988), 55: 615-640 [CFP 713]

CFDP 833R, "Econometric Modeling as Information Aggregation" (1988) (with Robert J. Shiller) [25pp, abstract] Reprinted in American Economic Review (June 1990), 80(3): 376-389 [CFP 754]

CFDP 839, "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations" (1987) (with Kathryn M. Dominguez) [33pp, abstract] Reprinted in American Economic Review (1991), 81(5): 1276-1294 [CFP 800]

CFDP 856R, "VAR Models as Structural Approximations" (1989) [17pp, abstract]

CFDP 857, "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts" (1988) (with Robert J. Shiller) [17pp, abstract] Reprinted in Review of Economics and Statistics (May 1989), 71(2): 325-331 [CFP 736]

CFDP 896, "The Production Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well" (1989) [21pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Monetary Economics (1989), 24: 353-370 [CFP 740]

CFDP 921, "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations" (1989) (with John B. Taylor) [21pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Applied Econometrics (1990), 5: 381-392 [CFP 764]

CFDP 923, "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior" (1989) [31pp, abstract] Reprinted in Review of Economics and Statistics (1993), 75(1): 8-18 [CFP 849]

CFDP 989, "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down?" (1991) [33pp, abstract] Reprinted in Review of Economics and Statistics (1994), 76(1): 103-118 [CFP 872]

CFDP 1004, "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theories, and New Keynesian Economics" (1992) [22pp, abstract] Reprinted in Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, eds., The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, 1992, pp. 133-147 [CFP 821]

CFDP 1005, "Estimates of the Bias of Lagged Dependent Variable Coefficient Estimates in Macroeconomic Equations" (1992) [19pp, abstract]

CFDP 1084, "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update" (1994) [24pp, abstract] Reprinted in Political Behavior (1996), 18(2): 119-139 [CFP 934]

CFDP 1071, "Is Monetary Policy Becoming Less Effective?" (1994) [17pp, abstract]

CFDP 1091, "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules" (1995) (with E. Philip Howrey) [21pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Monetary Economics (1996), 38: 173-193 [CFP 940]

CFDP 1116, "Explaining the Labor Force Participation of Women 20-24" (1996) (with Diane J. Macunovich) [24pp, abstract]

CFDP 1121, "Testing the Standard View of the Long-Run Unemployment-Inflation Relationship" (1996) [32pp, abstract]

CFDP 1129, "Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Prices" (1996) [30pp, abstract]

CFDP 1168, "Evaluating the Information Content and Money Making Ability of Forecasts from Exchange Rate Equations" (1997) [35pp, abstract]

CFDP 1258, "Estimated, Calibrated, and Optimal Interest Rate Rules" (2000) [40pp, abstract]

CFDP 1298, "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy" (Revised June 2003) [29pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (August 2005), 645-660 [CFP 1155]

CFDP 1300, "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks" (Revised March 2002) [27pp, abstract] [Old title: "Is There Empirical Support for the 'Modern' View of Macroeconomics?"] Reprinted in Contributions to Macroeconomics (2002), 2(1): Article 3 [CFP 1100]

CFDP 1345, "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models" (Revised June 2003) [30pp, abstract] Reprinted in Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2003), 7(4): Article 1 [CFP 1195]

CFDP 1381, "College Football Rankings and Market Efficiency" (2003, revised March 2005) (with John F. Oster) [23pp, abstract] [Old title: "Comparing the Predictive Information Content of College Football Rankings"] Reprinted in Journal of Sports Economics (February 2007), 3-18

CFDP 1382, "Risk Aversion and Stock Prices" (Revised February 2003) [22pp, abstract]

CFDP 1388, "Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s" (Revised March 2003) [25pp, abstract] Reprinted in Business Economics (January 2004), 43-53 [CFP 1194]

CFDP 1495, "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess" (Updated February 2006) [27pp, abstract] [Old title: "Estimated Physical and Cognitive Aging Effects"] Reprinted in Experimental Aging Research, 2007, 37-57 [CFP 1212]

CFDP 1496, "Predicting Electoral College Victory Probabilities from State Data" (2004) [20pp, abstract]

CFDP 1497, "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy" (2005) [35pp, abstract] Reprinted in Topics in Macroeconomics (2005), 5(1): Article 19 [CFP 1193]

CFDP 1525, "Natural Concepts in Macroeconomics" (2005) [41pp, abstract]

CFDP 1529, "Branch Rickey's Equation Fifty Years Later" (2005, updated January 2007) (with Danielle Catambay) [13pp, abstract] Reprinted in Nine (Fall 2008), 111-119

CFDP 1536, "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball" (Revised March 2007) [46pp, abstract] Reprinted in Journal of Quantitative Analysis (2008), 4(1): Article 1 [CFP 1255]

CFDP 1570, "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model" (Revised March 2007) [51pp, abstract] Reprinted in economics — The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2007-8 [CFP 1211]

CFDP 1577, "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?" (Updated March 2007) [36pp, abstract] [CFP 1213]

CFDP 1579, "Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Elections" (Updated May 2007) [29pp, abstract] [Old title: Interpreting the Predictive Uncertainty of Presidential Elections"] Reprinted in Journal of Politics (April 2009), 71(2): 612-626 [doi:10.1017/S0022381609090495]

CFDP 1602, "Presidential and Congressional Vote-Share Equations" (2007) [44pp, abstract] Reprinted in American Journal of Political Science (January 2009), 53(1): 55-72 [doi:10.1111/j.1540-5907.2008.00357.x]

CFDP 1634, "Estimating Term Structure Equations Using Macroeconomic Variables" (2008) [abstract, 24pp]

CFDP 1635, "Estimating Exchange Rate Equations Using Estimated Expectations" (2008) [abstract, 28pp]

CFDP 1706, "Analyzing Macroeconomic Forecastability" (June 2009, updated August 2010) [abstract, 20pp]

CFDP 1727, "Possible Macroeconomic Consequences of Large Future Federal Government Deficits" (Revised February 2010) [abstract, 24pp] Reprinted in Jeffrey Brown (ed.), Tax Policy and the Economy, Vol. 25, University of Chicago Press, 2010, Ch. 4

CFDP 1728, "Has Macro Progressed?" (September 2009, updated July 2010) [abstract, 31pp] Forthcoming in Journal of Macroeconomics

CFDP 1755, "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of a Chinese Yuan Appreciation" (March 2010) [18pp, abstract] Reprinted in Business Economics (October 2010), 45: 233-243 [doi:10.1057/be.2010.31]

CFDP 1756, "Estimated Macroeconomic Effects of the U.S. Stimulus Bill" (March 2010, revised May 19, 2010) [27pp, abstract] Reprinted in Contemporary Economic Policy (October 2010), 439-452

CFDP 1776, "A World Macro Saving Fact and an Explanation" (January 2011, Revised June 2011) [28pp, abstract]

CFDP 1807, "What It Takes to Solve the U.S. Government Deficit Problem" (July 2011, Revised May 2012) [abstract, 24pp]

CFDP 1861, "Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?" (May 2012) [31pp, abstract]

CFDP 1864, "How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty?" (June 2012) [23pp, abstract]

CFDP 1908, "Reflections on Macroeconometric Modeling" (September 2013) [30pp, abstract]

CFP 457, "A Theory of Extramarital Affairs." Journal of Political Economy (1978), 86(11): 45-61 [CFDP 436]

CFP 458, "A Note on the Computation of the Tobit Estimator." Econometrica (October 1977), 45(7): 1723-172 [CFDP 434]

CFP 463, "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President." Review of Economics and Statistics (May 1978), 60(2): 159-173 [CFDP 418]

CFP 467, "The Use of Optimal Control Techniques to Measure Economic Performance." International Economic Review (June 1978), 19(2): 289-309 [CFDP 420]

CFP 474, "The Sensitivity of Fiscal Policy Effects to Assumptions About the Behavior of the Federal Reserve." Econometrica (September 1978), 46(5): 1165-1179 [CFDP 446]

CFP 475, "A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations." Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking (November 1978), 10(4): 411-417 [CFDP 442]

CFP 477, "Inflation and Unemployment in a Macroeconometric Model." In After the Phillips Curve: Persistence of High Inflation and High Unemployment. Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Conference Series No.19, June 1978, pp. 164-200

CFP 478, "On Modeling the Economic Linkages Among Countries." In R. Dornbusch and J.A. Frenkel (eds.), International Economic Policy: Theory and Evidence, The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979, pp. 209-245 [CFDP 465]

CFP 483, "A Model of the Balance of Payments." Journal of International Economics (1979), 9: 25-46 [CFDP 451]

CFP 485, "On Modeling the Effects of Government Policies." American Economic Review (1979), 69(2): 86-91

CFP 489, "An Analysis of the Accuracy of Four Macroeconometric Models." Journal of Political Economy (1979), 87(4): 702-718 [CFDP 492]

CFP 490, "An Analysis of a Macro-Econometric Model with Rational Expectations in the Bond and Stock Markets." American Economic Review (September 1979), 69(4): 539-552 [CFDP 459]

CFP 502, "Full-Information Estimates of a Non-linear Macroeconometric Model." Journal of Econometrics (1980), 13(3): 269-291 (with William R. Parke) [CFDP 519]

CFP 507, "Estimating the Expected Predictive Accuracy of Econometric Models." International Economic Review (June 1980), 21(2): 356-378 [CFDP 480]

CFP 509, "Estimating the Uncertainty of Policy Effects in Nonlinear Models." Econometrica (September 1980), 48(6): 1381-1381

CFP 524, "Estimated Effects of the October 1979 Change in Monetary Policy on the 1980 Economy." American Economic Review (1981), 71(2): 160-165

CFP 545, "Estimated Output, Price, Interest Rate, and Exchange Rate Linkages Among Countries." Journal of Political Economy (1982), 90(3): 507-535 [CFDP 592]

CFP 548, "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1980 Results." Review of Economics and Statistics (May 1982), 64(2): 322-325

CFP 569, "The Effects of Misspecification on Predictive Accuracy." In Gregory C. Chow and Paolo Corsi, eds., Evaluating the Reliability of Macro-economic Models, John Wiley, 1982, pp. 193-213

CFP 575, "Solution and Maximum Likelihood Estimation of Dynamic Nonlinear Rational Expectations Models." Econometrica (July 1983), 51(4): 1169-118 (with John B. Taylor) [CFDP 564]

CFP 601, "Excess Labor and the Business Cycle." American Economic Review (March 1985), 75(1): 239-245 [CFDP 692]

CFP 710, "Forecasting the Depression: Harvard Versus Yale." American Economic Review (1988), 78(4): 595-596 (with Kathryn M. Dominguez, Matthew D. Shapiro) [CFDP 808]

CFP 713, "Inference in Nonlinear Econometric Models with Structural Change." Review of Economic Studies (1988), 55: 615-640 (with Donald W.K. Andrews) [CFDP 832]

CFP 732, "International Evidence on the Demand for Money." Review of Economics and Statistics (August 1987), 69(3): 473-480 [CFDP 813]

CFP 733, "Sources of Economic Fluctuations in the United States." Quarterly Journal of Economics (May 1988), 313-332

CFP 734, "Optimal Choice of Monetary Policy Instruments in a Macroeconometric Model." Journal of Monetary Economics (1988), 22: 301-315 [CFDP 818]

CFP 735, "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update." Political Behavior (1988), 10(2): 168-179 [CFDP 831]

CFP 736, "The Informational Content of Ex Ante Forecasts." Review of Economics and Statistics (May 1989), 71(2): 325-331 (with Robert J. Shiller) [CFDP 857]

CFP 740, "The Production-Smoothing Model Is Alive and Well." Journal of Monetary Economics (1989), 24: 353-370 [CFDP 896]

CFP 754, "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models." American Economic Review (June 1990), 80(3): 376-389 (with Robert J. Shiller) [CFDP 833R]

CFP 764, "Full Information Estimation and Stochastic Simulation of Models with Rational Expectations." Journal of Applied Econometrics (1990), 5: 381-392 (with John B. Taylor) [CFDP 921]

CFP 800, "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations." American Economic Review (1991), 81(5): 1276-1294 (with Kathryn M. Dominguez) [CFDP 839]

CFP 821, "The Cowles Commission Approach, Real Business Cycle Theory, and New Keynesian Economics." In Michael T. Belongia and Michelle R. Garfinkel, eds., The Business Cycle: Theories and Evidence, 1992, pp. 133-147 [CFDP 1004]

CFP 822, "Estimation of Polynomial Distributed Lags and Leads with End Point Constraints." Journal of Econometrics (1992), 53: 123-139 (with Donald W.K. Andrews)

CFP 838, "Testing Macroeconometric Models." AEA Papers and Proceedings (1993), 83(2): 287-293

CFP 849, "Inflationary Expectations and Price Setting Behavior." Review of Economics and Statistics (1993), 75(1): 8-18 [CFDP 923]

CFP 851, "Estimating Event Probabilities from Macroeconometric Models Using Stochastic Simulation." In James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson, eds., Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, 1993, pp. 157-178

CFP 853, "Testing the Rational Expectations Hypothesis in Macroeconometric Models." Oxford Economic Papers (1993), 45: 169-190

CFP 872, "How Fast Do Old Men Slow Down." Review of Economics and Statistics (1994), 76(1): 103-118 [CFDP 989]

CFP 927, "Econometrics and Presidential Elections." Journal of Economic Perspectives (Summer 1996), 10(3): 89-102

CFP 931, "Computing Median Unbiased Estimates in Microeconometric Models." Journal of Applied Econometrics (1996), 11: 431-435

CFP 934, "The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1992 Update." Political Behavior (1996), 18(2): 119-139 [CFDP 1084]

CFP 938, "Computational Methods for Macroeconometric Models 1997." In H.M. Amman, D.A. Kendrick and J. Rust, eds., Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 1, 1996, pp. 144-169

CFP 940, "Evaluating Alternative Monetary Policy Rules." Journal of Monetary Economics (1996), 38: 173-193 (with E. Philip Howrey) [CFDP 1091]

CFP 962, "Estimated Stabilization Costs of the EMU." National Institute Economic Review (1998) (164): 90-99

CFP 976, "Estimated Inflation Costs Had European Unemployment Been Reduced in the 1980s by Macro Policies" Journal of Macroeconomics (Winter 1999), 21(1): 1-28

CFP 982, "Does the NAIRU Have the Right Dynamics?" American Economic Review (1999), 89(2): 58-59

CFP 1067, "Shock Effects on Stocks, Bonds, and Exchange Rates." Journal of International Money and Finance (2003), 22: 307-341

CFP 1076, "Optimal Control and Stochastic Simulation of Large Nonlinear Models with Rational Expectations." Computational Economics (2003) 21: 245-256

CFP 1092, "Events that Shook the Market." Journal of Business (2002), 75(4): 713-731

CFP 1100, "On Modeling the Effects of Inflation Shocks." Contributions to Macroeconomics (2002), 2(1): Article 3 [CFDP 1300]

CFP 1130, "Events That Shook the Market." Journal of Business (2002), 75(4): 713-731

CFP 1155, "Estimates of the Effectiveness of Monetary Policy." Journal of Money, Credit and Banking (August 2005), 645-660 [CFDP 1298]

CFP 1193, "Policy Effects in the Post Boom U.S. Economy." Topics in Macroeconomics (2005), 5(1): Article 19 [CFDP 1497]

CFP 1194, "Testing for a New Economy in the 1990s." Business Economics (January 2004), 43-53 [CFDP 1388]

CFP 1195, "Bootstrapping Macroeconometric Models." Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics (2003), 7(4): Article 1 [CFDP 1345]

CFP 1211, "Evaluating Inflation Targeting Using a Macroeconometric Model."  economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, 2007-8 [CFDP 1570]

CFP 1212, "Estimated Age Effects in Athletic Events and Chess." Experimental Aging Research, 2007, 37-57 [CFDP 1495]

CFP 1213, "A Comparison of Five Federal Reserve Chairmen: Was Greenspan the Best?" The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics (2007), 7(1) (Contributions), Article 12 [CFDP 1577]

CFP 1255, "Estimated Age Effects in Baseball." Journal of Quantitative Analysis (2008), 4(1): Article 1 [CFDP 1536]

CFP 1256, "Testing Price Equations." European Economic Review (Nov. 2008), 52(8): 1424-1437