COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN
ECONOMICS Box 208281
COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 0000 How Should the Fed Report Uncertainty? Ray C. Fair June 2012 In January 2012 the Fed began reporting ranges of its economic
forecasts. The ranges, however, measure differences of opinion, not variances of economic
forecasts. This paper discusses what the Fed could report in a world in which it used a
single macroeconometric model to make its forecasts and guide its policies. Suggestions
are then made as to what might be feasible for the Fed to report given that it is unlikely
to be willing to commit to a single model. |
