COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS
AT YALE UNIVERSITY

Box 208281
New Haven, CT 06520-8281

COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 1380R

Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market

John Geanakoplos, Michael Magill, and Martine Quinzii

Revised July 2004

This paper was begun during a visit at the Cowles Foundation in Fall 2000 and revised during a visit in Fall 2002: Michael Magill and Martine Quinzii are grateful for the stimulating environment and the research support provided by the Cowles Foundation. We are also grateful to Bob Shiller for helpful discussions, and to participants at the Cowles Conference on Incomplete Markets at Yale University, the SITE Workshop at Stanford University, the Incomplete Markets Workshop at SUNY Stony Brook during the summer 2001, the Southwest Economic Conference at UCLA, and the Conference for the Advancement of Economic Theory at Rhodes in 2003 for helpful comments. Many thanks to Bill Brainard whose numerous insightful questions and comments greatly improved the final version of the paper. Unfortunately the authors are solely responsible for the remaining weaknesses.

Keywords: Demography, Price earnings ratio, Efficient markets, Baby-boom, Savings

JEL Classification: E21, E32, E43, E44, G12, J11