COWLES FOUNDATION FOR RESEARCH IN ECONOMICS
AT YALE UNIVERSITY

Box 208281
New Haven, CT 06520-8281

COWLES FOUNDATION DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 831

"The Effect of Economic Events on Votes for President: 1984 Update"

Ray C. Fair

April 1987

In previous work I have developed an equation explaining votes for president in the United States that seems to have a remarkable predictive ability. The purpose of this paper is to update this equation through the 1984 election and then use it to predict the 1988 election.

JEL Classification: 025, 212, 921, 131

Keywords: Presidential election, votes, inflation, gross national product growth, unemployment, politics, political business cycle, President